The Polls Come Back To Earth

[DLR'sCock]

The Polls Come Back to Earth
t r u t h o u t | Staff Report

Tuesday 07 September 2004

It has been a wild week for numbers. Immediately after the Republican Convention, Time and Newsweek released poll numbers indicating a significant bounce for George W. Bush, and an 11 point lead over John Kerry. A few days go by, however, and the air appears to have been let out of the tires.

The new Rasmussen poll has the two Presidential candidates tied 47.3% to 47.3%. This leads to an inescapable conclusion: If all these numbers are correct - Time, Newsweek and Rasmussen - then Mr. Bush has suffered an historic cratering in his poll numbers within 100 hours of the close of his party's convention.

But perhaps the ballyhooed post-convention lead enjoyed by Bush never existed at all. Pollster John Zogby says, "I have Mr. Bush leading by 2 points in the simple head-to-head match up - 46% to 44%. Add in the other minor candidates and it becomes a 3 point advantage for the President - 46% to 43%...it simply is not an 11 point race. It just isn't."

It should be noted that Rasmussen provided the core data for both the TIME and Newsweek polls. Their independent interpretation of the very same data produced dramatically different conclusions than those reached by TIME and Newsweek.

The 'Bush bounce' after the convention has either disappeared completely, or never existed at all. Neither bodes well for the incumbent. Gallup, which has on many occasions appeared to be working as a PR arm of the Bush election campaign, paints an interesting political perspective: "Bush's two-point convention bounce is one of the smallest registered in Gallup polling history, along with Hubert Humphrey's two-point bounce following the 1968 Democratic convention, George McGovern's zero-point bounce following the 1972 Democratic convention, and Kerry's "negative bounce" of one point among registered voters earlier this year. Bush's bounce is the smallest an incumbent president has received."

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Jump to TO Features for Wednesday September 8, 2004
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[Sgt Schultz]

Bush's lead over Kerry confirmed in another poll
Mon Sep 6, 6:27 PM ET

WASHINGTON (AFP) - US President George W. Bush confirmed his lead over Democratic rival John Kerry as a new opinion poll gave him a seven-point lead among likely voters less than two months before the November 2 election.

The CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey conducted after the Republican convention showed Bush leading Kerry 52 percent to 45 percent among likely voters. Bush led Kerry 50-47 before the convention.

Bush gained a smaller two-point "bounce" in his support among registered voters -- from 47 percent before the convention to 49 percent now.

Among this group, the candidates are essentially tied, with 49 percent saying they would vote for Bush and 48 percent for Kerry in a two-candidate race.

When consumer advocate Ralph Nader (news - web sites) is included in the race, Bush receives 48 percent, Kerry 46 percent, and Nader four percent.

"Today's CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll confirms that this is, literally, the closest race in modern history," Kerry spokeswoman Stephanie Cutter said, referring to the narrower of the two margins.

The poll, in which 1,018 adults were questioned September 3-5, had a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.

The findings came after two polls for Newsweek and Time magazines released at the weekend gave Bush at least an 11-point lead over Kerry.

[JCOOK]

W. in landslide goodnight now!

[Sgt Schultz]

Rasmussen Presidential Tracking Poll: Bush-Kerry
Wednesday, September 8, 2004

Wednesday September 08, 2004--The Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 48% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 46%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.

Senator Kerry has not been ahead in the Tracking Poll since August 23. President Bush leads 88% to 10% among Republicans. Senator Kerry leads 79% to 17% among Democrats. As for those who are unaffiliated, 45% prefer Kerry and 44% Bush.

[Wayne L.]

Bush will win against Kerry in the presidential election by about 4 or 5 points no matter what the polls say at the moment. I predict it will be a Rudy Guiliani & Hillary Clinton race in 08 with Guiliani defeating Clinton by the closest margin in political history.

[knuckleboner]

closer than jefferson/burr?

(i think they tied on the 1st ballot...;))

[Pink Spider]

The anticipation...which one will win?

Will it be Skull and Bones or Skull and Bones?

[FORD]

Originally posted by Pink Spider
The anticipation...which one will win?

Will it be Skull and Bones or Skull and Bones?

Hopefully it will be Skull & Bones with a Supreme Court not totally controlled by fascists :)

[ELVIS]

You live in a dream world...

[Pink Spider]

We're close to becoming a dictatorship and all you worry about is the supreme court?

Two guys....same fucking issues except for maybe 2 or 3. Both Skull and Bones.

Why you think that Kerry is going to be your great savior is beyond me. You know as well as I do what he stands for.

[ELVIS]

Because he is for anyone but Bush...

Smart move for someone who considers himself informed...:rolleyes:

[FORD]

Originally posted by Pink Spider
We're close to becoming a dictatorship and all you worry about is the supreme court?

Two guys....same fucking issues except for maybe 2 or 3. Both Skull and Bones.

Why you think that Kerry is going to be your great savior is beyond me. You know as well as I do what he stands for.

Kerry's no savior by any means. But the courts are the only branch of government NOT under complete control of the fascists right now. If Junior gets the Supreme Court and nominates assholes like Ken $tarr, Roy Moore and Miguel Estrada, those lifetime appointments will fuck the judicial system for decades.

I would rather preserve one branch of the government and then work to regain the other two than lose all three and be living under complete fascism. You want Judge Roy putting his giant marble monuments in every public building? You want them to force you to pledge allegiance to their fucked up version of "God" under penalty of death??

Hell, I'm half tempted to start buying assault weapons on Monday and starting the inevitable revolution myself, but until that time comes, preserving one branch of government is preferrable to losing all three.

[Pink Spider]

We lost control at the national level a long time ago.

You completely dodge the fact that from Kerry's past history, he has supported these very same fascists that you hate so much. Perhaps he's played "liberal" from time to time, but what difference does that make? Yes, he's better than Bush. So? He'll just screw this country in other ways that Shrub couldn't get away with. No Democrat questions another Democrat as I've learned.

Actually, vote for whoever. It doesn't matter. They are not so separate in views. Skull and Bones have the win. If you want to be bamboozled, it's your choice.

[ELVIS]

Get him pink!

[ELVIS]

Originally posted by FORD
Hell, I'm half tempted to start buying assault weapons on Monday and starting the inevitable revolution myself

You are truly delusional!

Go ahead, let your delusions get the best of you...

With your line of thinking, you might deserve to live the rest of your life in prison...

[ODShowtime]

Originally posted by FORD
Kerry's no savior by any means. But the courts are the only branch of government NOT under complete control of the fascists right now. If Junior gets the Supreme Court and nominates assholes like Ken $tarr, Roy Moore and Miguel Estrada, those lifetime appointments will fuck the judicial system for decades.

I would rather preserve one branch of the government and then work to regain the other two than lose all three and be living under complete fascism. You want Judge Roy putting his giant marble monuments in every public building? You want them to force you to pledge allegiance to their fucked up version of "God" under penalty of death??


Exactly. We cannot let George pick any Supreme Court Justices. Just like we cannot have him changing the Constitution.

If Kerry can at least be slicker, maybe we can not have the rest of the world hate our guts. That's a start.

[Sgt Schultz]

Originally posted by ODShowtime
Exactly. We cannot let George pick any Supreme Court Justices. Just like we cannot have him changing the Constitution.

If Kerry can at least be slicker, maybe we can not have the rest of the world hate our guts. That's a start.

Right, because as we all know, the President can change the Constitution.

As far as the rest of the world hating our guts - who cares? This isn't a popularity contest, what is this, High School? Other countries hated Reagan too but had to somewhat keep a lid on it becasue there was still the Soviet menace. Now they have nothing to hold them back from hating a Republican President.

[ODShowtime]

Originally posted by Sgt Schultz
Right, because as we all know, the President can change the Constitution.

As far as the rest of the world hating our guts - who cares? This isn't a popularity contest, what is this, High School? Other countries hated Reagan too but had to somewhat keep a lid on it becasue there was still the Soviet menace. Now they have nothing to hold them back from hating a Republican President.


1. Even suggesting changing the Constitution to limit someone's rights shows a comtempt for the document. It makes me sick that our president would do so.

2. I've heard the "it's not a popularity contest" bullshit before, probably from you. I think 9-11 showed us that the oceans are not enough to protect us from today's threats. While American foriegn policy cannot be made to appease everyone, one of the goals is to not have the whole friggin' world pissed at us at once.

We have a State Department that coordinates diplomatic efforts and Bush&Friends steamrolled right the fuck over it. It's pretty much a joke now after Colin Powell destroyed his credibility trying to help Bush.

[Warham]

I think too many judges in higher courts legislate for the bench, a sure sign of being too far left. We need more conservatives in those positions.

[ODShowtime]

Oddly enough I kinda agree with that. But not with Bush friend's being in the Supreme Court.