Presidential Tracking Poll: Bush-Kerry

[ELVIS]

Updated Daily by Noon Eastern Election 2004

Presidential Ballot

Election 2004

Date Bush Kerry
Today 48.1 45.9
Oct 13 47.6 46.2
Oct 12 47.4 45.8
Oct 11 49.0 45.4
Oct 10 49.5 45.5
Oct 9 49.6 45.9
Oct 8 48.4 46.1
Oct 7 47.8 46.7
Oct 6 47.2 46.9
Oct 5 47.9 47.0
Oct 4 48.6 46.1
Oct 3 49.0 45.4
Oct 2 48.6 45.6
Oct 1 48.7 45.3


Thursday October 14, 2004--The debates are over and there's less than three weeks until Election Day. The Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 48% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 46%.

The Tracking Poll is based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. All but a few of the interviews for today's report were conducted prior to the completion of last night's debate.

Prior to the debate, our latest rating's for the President's handling of the economy and the situation in Iraq provided further evidence of an evenly divided electorate. In both cases, the number who say the President is doing a good or an excellent job is roughly equal to the number saying he is doing a poor job.

Our latest Electoral College projections show the President ahead with 240 Electoral Votes to 194 for Senator Kerry. Additional state polling data will be released at 5:00 p.m. Eastern today.



:elvis:

[ODShowtime]

Man you loves these polls don't you?

[knuckleboner]

most polls have them at a dead heat. 48-46% is statistically a dead heat, since i'm sure it's within the margin of error.


however, i have seen similar stats on the projected electoral college. bush by 40-50 votes.

[ELVIS]

Which statistically have proven to be correct...

[knuckleboner]

heh heh...i never questioned 'em, big E.

but as far as my bet with Ashcroft goes, electoral college don't matter.;)

[ELVIS]

Ha!


:D

[Keeyth]

Hey Elvis,

Get ready to start refering to Kerry as "Mr. President", O.K.?
You know if your guy Bush was any kind of REAL president the polls wouldn't be this close. If he had even done a good job, not a great one, just a good one, the polls wouldn't be this close. So buck up little camper, I'm sure you'll find some other loser to start backing someday. For now however, this one is about to be put out to pasture.

[JCOOK]

In the words of Johnny"NUTHING IS OVER!NUTHING!
4more years!

[BigBadBrian]

Originally posted by knuckleboner
most polls have them at a dead heat. 48-46% is statistically a dead heat, since i'm sure it's within the margin of error.


however, i have seen similar stats on the projected electoral college. bush by 40-50 votes.

I agree with KB. Only one poll matters: Nov 2.

[FORD]

Originally posted by BigBadBrian
I agree with KB. Only one poll matters: Nov 2.

And that one only matters if every vote is counted.

[BigBadBrian]

Originally posted by FORD
And that one only matters if every vote is counted.


I'm doing my part. I'm distributing voter pamphlets to the black neighborhoods telling them to get out and vote on Wednesday, Nov 3. :gulp:

[FORD]

Originally posted by BigBadBrian
I'm doing my part. I'm distributing voter pamphlets to the black neighborhoods telling them to get out and vote on Wednesday, Nov 3. :gulp:

You should drive over to West Virginia and distribute them in Phil Parlockkk's trailer park, where they would be more effective ;)

[BigBadBrian]

Originally posted by FORD
You should drive over to West Virginia and distribute them in Phil Parlockkk's trailer park, where they would be more effective ;)

Damn. Here I go trying to piss you off ...and you take it for what it was...a joke. :D :gulp:

[Rikk]

Originally posted by BigBadBrian
I'm doing my part. I'm distributing voter pamphlets to the black neighborhoods telling them to get out and vote on Wednesday, Nov 3. :gulp:

Okay, that was funny!!:D

[JCOOK]

What about the ones who are ...lets just say retarded,vote twice vote for no one,write in Ford or just are uncountable

[Cathedral]

Originally posted by Keeyth
Hey Elvis,

Get ready to start refering to Kerry as "Mr. President", O.K.?
You know if your guy Bush was any kind of REAL president the polls wouldn't be this close. If he had even done a good job, not a great one, just a good one, the polls wouldn't be this close. So buck up little camper, I'm sure you'll find some other loser to start backing someday. For now however, this one is about to be put out to pasture.

How confident are you that Kerry will win?

I got $20.00 that says you're wrong.
So put your money where your mouth is or shut up, lol.

I was kidding about the shut up thing by the way, but totally serious about the $20.00, and i don't welch.
You WILL be a 20 spot richer if Kerry pulls out the win.

Care to take the bet?

[LoungeMachine]

Originally posted by Cathedral
How confident are you that Kerry will win?

I got $20.00 that says you're wrong.
So put your money where your mouth is or shut up, lol.

I was kidding about the shut up thing by the way, but totally serious about the $20.00, and i don't welch.
You WILL be a 20 spot richer if Kerry pulls out the win.

Care to take the bet?

I'll take that bet Cath.

Problem is, it may be until late December before the courts tell us who they've chosen

regardless, andrew jackson awaits you

[ELVIS]

Zogby Tracking: Bush Opens 4 Pt. Lead

Oct. 15, 2004 (http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2004/10/15/95325.shtml)

Zogby International's latest daily tracking poll reveals that a day after the final debate, President Bush has opened a four-point lead over Democratic rival Senator John Kerry.

The telephone poll of 1220 likely voters was conducted from Tuesday through Thursday (October 12-14, 2004). The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points.

Pollster John Zogby: "While Bush-- now at 48%-- had another good night continuing his upward trend, Kerry appears stuck at 44%. The good news for the President is that he has improved his performance among the small group of undecideds. Nearly a quarter now say that he deserves to be re-elected-up from 18% in our last poll.
Zogby International conducted interviews of 1231 likely voters chosen at random nationwide. All calls were made from Zogby International headquarters in Utica, N.Y., from October 12 through October 14, 2004. The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion, gender, to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.

In 1996, John Zogby came within one-tenth of 1 percent of the presidential result. Since 1996, Zogby has polled for Reuters News Agency, the largest news agency in the world. The latest results and analysis of the Zogby polls, and exclusive interviews with John Zogby are available on Reuters.com. The site provides comprehensive coverage of the campaigns, including a special video service, which compares the position of both candidates on key policy issues.



:elvis:

[Keeyth]

Originally posted by Cathedral
How confident are you that Kerry will win?

I got $20.00 that says you're wrong.
So put your money where your mouth is or shut up, lol.

I was kidding about the shut up thing by the way, but totally serious about the $20.00, and i don't welch.
You WILL be a 20 spot richer if Kerry pulls out the win.

Care to take the bet?

Absolutely, You're on, and I don't welch either.

[Keeyth]

Originally posted by ELVIS
Zogby Tracking: Bush Opens 4 Pt. Lead

Oct. 15, 2004 (http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2004/10/15/95325.shtml)

Zogby International's latest daily tracking poll reveals that a day after the final debate, President Bush has opened a four-point lead over Democratic rival Senator John Kerry.

The telephone poll of 1220 likely voters was conducted from Tuesday through Thursday (October 12-14, 2004). The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points.

Pollster John Zogby: "While Bush-- now at 48%-- had another good night continuing his upward trend, Kerry appears stuck at 44%. The good news for the President is that he has improved his performance among the small group of undecideds. Nearly a quarter now say that he deserves to be re-elected-up from 18% in our last poll.
Zogby International conducted interviews of 1231 likely voters chosen at random nationwide. All calls were made from Zogby International headquarters in Utica, N.Y., from October 12 through October 14, 2004. The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion, gender, to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.

In 1996, John Zogby came within one-tenth of 1 percent of the presidential result. Since 1996, Zogby has polled for Reuters News Agency, the largest news agency in the world. The latest results and analysis of the Zogby polls, and exclusive interviews with John Zogby are available on Reuters.com. The site provides comprehensive coverage of the campaigns, including a special video service, which compares the position of both candidates on key policy issues.



:elvis:

Wow. A four point lead. Must've been doing a helluva job as our President to have a landslide like that going...

[Big Train]

Is this turning into a betting pool......what's the spread?

Anyway to combine this with the Superbowl pools? Double or nothing?

[Kristy]

I have some "statistical" land to sell you in Louisiana.

[tobinentinc]

Bush is take this election by a descent margin.