Economic Doom Pt. 2

[Big Train]

Crude closes near 3-month low
Prices down 14% for the week as supply threat eases

The DOOM right..fuckin Bush, the DOOM people...whaaaaaaa..

By Myra P. Saefong, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 3:50 PM ET Dec. 3, 2004__

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Crude futures closed under $43 a barrel at an almost three-month low Friday, logging a loss of 14 percent for the week amid rising U.S. distillate and crude supplies and growing expectations that OPEC won't agree to cut its output quota next week.

Natural-gas prices lost more than 21 percent for the week with traders reassured by overall U.S. stock levels.

"The lack of a snap back to the upside after the big Wednesday-Thursday drop [in oil prices] suggest that the market's rubber band hasn't just been stretched -- it's broken," Tim Evans, a senior analyst at IFR Markets, said in an afternoon update.

Crude for January delivery fell to a low of $42.05 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange before closing at $42.54, down 71 cents for the session. It was its lowest settlement level since Sept. 10.

The contract lost $6.90 for the week, after closing last week at $49.44, on Nov. 24, before the Thanksgiving holiday.

Among the oil products, January heating oil fell 2.13 cents to close at $1.2359 a gallon, down 15.7 percent for the week. January unleaded gas lost 0.65 cent to end at $1.1349 a gallon, down 13.5 percent for the week.

Despite the losses for the week, oil prices could find support. OPEC may now have the "ammunition it needs to call for an across-the-board cut in production," said Kevin Kerr, president of Kerr Trading International. He added that members are "pumping more and making less [and] they hate that."

Cartel members will meet next Friday in Cairo to decide whether any changes to output are necessary to better balance supply and demand.

OPEC musings

Comments from Nigeria Thursday implied that the African nation is concerned a production cut would send the wrong signal to the market, according to Michael Fitzpatrick, an analyst at Fimat USA.

At the same time, however, Saudi Arabia has suggested that it hasn't ruled out an output cut, he said.

Also, OPEC President Purnomo Yusgiantoro said Thursday that the organization will likely decide to keep its current production quota of 27 million barrels, excluding Iraq.

Still, Iran and Venezuela have called on the cartel to cut production quotas when the Egyptian summit convenes. The market estimates that actual output is running about 1 million barrels above the current quota.

Oil prices could "recoil aggressively" under the slightest threat of an OPEC cut, or any other notable supply threat, Fitzpatrick said.

Contributing to price pressure this week were Wednesday's reports of higher distillate and crude supplies for the week ended Nov. 26. See full story.

Natural gas falls

Natural-gas futures posted a more than 21 percent loss for the week, with storage levels seen as more than adequate for now.

From here, Kerr believes prices will "see a bit more of a falloff," but then prices will "bounce once cold weather hits."

January natural gas closed at $6.796 per million British thermal units, down 1.5 cents for the session, and down $1.84 from last Wednesday's closing level.

It fell more than 8 percent on Thursday alone after the Energy Department said supplies for the week ended Nov. 19 didn't fall as much as previously reported.

[FORD]

So Bandar Bush did as his "brother" asked him to. Hardly a surprise there.

[Nickdfresh]

This glowing economic report failed to mention that only 112.000 jobs have been created in the same quarter. Cheaper gas means shit if you aren't driving to work everyday!

[Big Train]

One thing a time son...

High oil prices were what people were bitching about in this forum a lil over a week ago.

But I guess nothing "means shit" when you have your mind made up.

[ODShowtime]

I was gonna post an article on this, not with the same spin though

[Nickdfresh]

Originally posted by Big Train
One thing a time son...

High oil prices were what people were bitching about in this forum a lil over a week ago...

Not me! You want to drive a SUV or a gigantic pickup truck that you hardly use or ever put into 4-wheel drive, you should have to pay for that privilege!

[Nickdfresh]

Before we start blowing our wads over the stellar economic recovery:

6:33 PM PST, December 3, 2004 E-mail story Print


November Job Growth Is Moderate


By David Streitfeld, Times Staff Writer


The United States' hiring engine sputtered again in November, as the Labor Department reported Friday the economy added an unimpressive 112,000 net jobs during the month.

That was much less than the 200,000 jump economists were expecting, and only about two-thirds of what is needed each month merely to keep up with population growth.

The unemployment rate fell to 5.4 percent, from 5.5 percent the previous month.

"Just when I thought it was safe to say the job market had finally firmed up, we discovered once again we were wrong," said economist Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisors. "There's a new psychology in the corporate sector. If they need to hire 10 people, they try to get by with five."

Employment growth has seesawed for more than a year, with brief periods of strength followed by extended episodes of weakness. November's numbers looked particularly poor in contrast to October's total, an impressive 303,000 even after being revised downward Friday.

October's numbers probably were inflated by temporary jobs stemming from cleaning up Florida after four successive hurricanes, economists said.

It's not surprising that business executives are cautious. Consumer confidence is down and interest rates are moving up, both of which could foreshadow a drop in household spending.

"Employers sense the economy will slow in the first several months of 2005 and thus see no reason to rush out and add to their payroll, especially now that analysts are projecting slimmer corporate profit growth next year," said Bernard Baumohl of Economic Outlook Group.

The Bush administration put the best spin on the report. The jobs numbers are "a confirmation that the American economy is on a steady growth path," Treasury Secretary John W. Snow said. The economy has created more than 2 million net jobs so far this year, averaging nearly 200,000 a month, he said.

Others drew a more pessimistic picture.

The liberal Economic Policy Institute noted that in July 2003 the administration called its tax cut a "Jobs and Growth Plan." The White House's Council of Economic Advisors estimated then that 5.5 million jobs would be created by the end of 2004.

With one month to go, EPI said, the forecast is 3 million jobs short.

"Any time there's been a month of good job growth, people think it's going to settle down into consistently good job growth," said EPI president Larry Mishel. "That hasn't happened. It's very uncertain that it will."

If job creation has been underwhelming, wages have lately turned that way too. Average weekly wages fell $1.25 in November to $533.47. Over the last year, wages rose more slowly than inflation.

That might be a reason why the number of people holding down two jobs increased by 346,000 over the last year, to 7.6 million. Multiple jobholders are now 5.4 percent of the labor force.

November's job growth was held down by the elimination of 16,200 retailing positions. That restraint by merchants now looks smart in light of disappointing holiday sales. Manufacturers, whose four-year-old slump seemed to have ended last spring, tightened their belts again, cutting another 5,000 jobs.

One bright spot was the lodging industry, up 18,000. But the Labor Department said about half of that growth was due to the return of striking workers. Other strong categories included hospitals (up 8,000), nursing and residential care facilities (up 7,000), and physicians' offices (up 6,000).

Sluggish job reports imply a weakening economy. But the consensus viewpoint is still that the Federal Reserve would raise its benchmark short-term interest rate another quarter point, to 2.25 percent, at its next meeting Dec. 14.

Despite even softer payroll numbers in the summer, "the Fed kept tightening," said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics, in a report to clients. Another hike in February, he added, was "still more likely than not."

Wells Fargo Banks chief economist Sung Won Sohn didn't believe the weak employment report boded trouble for the economy.

"It is too early to be pessimistic," Sohn said, pointing out that "uncertainties have diminished in recent months. We have gone through the Olympics and the national election without terrorism, the price of oil is trending down. ... Business spending on equipment, software, inventories, etc. has been rising."

On Wall Street, the bad news about employment was offset by a continued fall in oil prices and a bullish revenue outlook from chip giant Intel Corp. Oil prices dropped below $43 for the first time in more than two months.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 7.09, or 0.07 percent, to 10,592.21.

Bond yields, however, tumbled, reflecting views of a slower economy

[blueturk]

And yet more economic news....http://www.charlotte.com/mld/observer/business/10327168.htm (www.charlotte.com/mld/observer/business/10327168.htm)

[Big Train]

Way to miss the fucking point....

The point was about a week ago, everybody was crying doom because oil was gonna hit 60 dollars a barrel, gold and chaos would reign and on and on....all I'm saying is that oil is stabilizing itself which is going to have major positive economic ramifications. What the fuck is so hard to understand about that?

Jeez Nick, it's like sometimes your standing at the corner with your fly open, waiting for a parade to come by....

[bueno bob]

I'm sorry, but gas more than $1.25 a gallon is still a fuckin' rip off, period. :)

[Nickdfresh]

Originally posted by Big Train
Way to miss the fucking point....

The point was about a week ago, everybody was crying doom because oil was gonna hit 60 dollars a barrel, gold and chaos would reign and on and on....all I'm saying is that oil is stabilizing itself which is going to have major positive economic ramifications. What the fuck is so hard to understand about that?

Jeez Nick, it's like sometimes your standing at the corner with your fly open, waiting for a parade to come by....

Report the good news, eliminate all bad!

The economys just fine, nothing to see here, just move along, nothing to see here! All is well...

[Big Train]

Not really, but it is in stark contrast to your:

Report the bad news, eliminate all the good!

The economys fucked, nothing to see here, just move along, nothing to see here! All is doomed...

[Warham]

What was the unemployment rate when Clinton was in office during the Golden Years?