LoungeMachine
03-02-2005, 12:24 AM
Analysis: Jaafari's leanings toward Iran, Islamists worry U.S.
Sunday, February 27, 2005
By Patrick McDonnell and Paul Richter, Los Angeles Times
BAGHDAD, Iraq -- Two years ago, as the United States planned to march into Baghdad, many in the Bush administration had a vision for Iraq's first freely elected government in decades: It would be a pro-U.S government that would support American military bases, embrace U.S. businesses, and serve as a model for democracy in the region.
Now, as Ibrahim Jaafari seems certain to become Iraq's new premier, the United States faces the prospects of dealing with a government whose views may be closer to Tehran's than to Washington's. And U.S. officials are left wondering how many of their assumptions will prove to be true.
The soft-spoken physician who spent nine years as an exile in Iran lately has been at pains to appear as a moderate on issues of religion in government. He and members of his United Iraqi Alliance slate have stressed they have differences with the Iranian theocratic model of government and that Iraqis need a government that will represent all groups.
"Iraq is actually made of various populations from all nationalities, sects and religions," Jaafari said in a recent interview with the Los Angeles Times at an ornate Baghdad government office. "Nobody can rule Iraq unless he would walk alongside all Iraqis and represent all the Iraqi people."
But many Iraqis and foreign observers note that he heads Iraq's oldest Islamist party and are worried that he will seek to impose a more religious government than he is letting on. They note that he has been lukewarm to the U.S. presence in Iraq and has stated that he would like to see U.S. troops withdraw once Iraqi forces are trained.
They also recall that former Iranian leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini initially disavowed political motives after an Islamic revolution overthrew the Shah of Iran in 1979. "All the experts got it wrong in Iran, too," said one senior U.S. diplomat in Baghdad with considerable experience in the region.
Before long, Khomeini was espousing the doctrine of "velayat-e-faqih," or rule of religious jurists. The Islamic state has since been a U.S. nemesis and was named three years ago in President Bush's so-called "axis of evil."
For the Bush administration, it would be painful if the doctrine resurfaces in Iraq, especially since the U.S. invasion cost more than 1,400 American lives and hundreds of billions of dollars.
U.S. officials have said they would work with whoever is elected, although they would have preferred current Prime Minister Iyad Allawi or Adel Abdul Mehdi, the interim government's finance minister. One senior administration official declined to say how U.S. officials view Jaafari. "We have a studied neutrality on that," he said.
But U.S. officials have cause for concern. Jaafari resisted U.S. offensives against insurgents in Fallujah and Najaf, leading to speculation that he could try to halt future U.S. attacks.
And while Jaafari has declared publicly that he favors human rights and an inclusive Iraqi government, he wants religion to have a key role in the government. Jaafari was one of the Shiite leaders who walked out during deliberations on Iraq's transitional law because he feared that it would not make Islam the sole source of Iraqi law.
Juan R. Cole, an expert on Iraq at the University of Michigan, said Jaafari may not suit the Americans as well as Allawi would have, but he is not expected to be hostile. "He'll get along with them," Cole said.
But many in Iraq worry that Shiite clerics could pressure Jaafari. The Khomeini-like turbaned image of Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the Iranian-born spiritual leader of Iraq's Shiites, was ubiquitous on campaign posters before the Jan. 30 elections. Sistani's tacit endorsement was considered key to the successful Jaafari's slate.
The reassurances by Jaafari and other slate leaders of moderation and independence from Iran have failed to mollify fears that Tehran could wield significant influence in the new Iraqi government. The slate's two major Shiite parties -- Jaafari's Dawa and the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq -- are seen by some Iraqis as Iranian fronts. U.S. officials are convinced that both parties receive financial aid from Iran.
The current defense minister, Hazim Shalaan, a secular Shiite, derided the Shiite slate as "an Iranian list."
Jaafari and other Shiite leaders have noted the Arab character of their slate and say they resent the second-class treatment meted out to Arabs in Iran, which has a Persian majority.
U.S. officials and others in Iraq hope that the Shiites' power would be checked by the Kurds who received the second-largest number of votes in the elections. The Kurds, by most accounts, would oppose any Shiite efforts to turn the country toward religious rule.
The Kurds control a block of 75 seats in the 275-seat transitional legislature that will ensure their role as "kingmakers," in the words of one Western official. The Shiite slate won 140 seats, well short of the two-thirds needed for crucial decisions. And the Shiite slate, which includes a cross-section of political and religious groups, could fracture, experts warn. Still, there is little question that the Shiite Islamists are in the strongest position as Iraq lurches toward some form of representative democracy.
Shiite leaders have indicated that they plan to kick out some 150,000 U.S. troops when they are no longer needed to fight the mainly Sunni Arab insurgents. "When there is a self-sufficiency regarding security, then the existence of foreign forces in Iraq, be they in the form of individual troops or in the form of military bases, will not be justified," Jaafari said.
That message may hearten some U.S. lawmakers who favor a complete pullout once Iraqi forces are able to contain the insurgency, a process that could take years. Jaafari's position would seem to rule out the hope that a stable Iraq would voluntarily host U.S. bases, providing an alternative to Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region.
Western diplomats say the major challenge facing Jaafari and the new government is holding the country together.
"In the past," noted another senior Western diplomat, "the Shiite community here has demonstrated an admirable level of self-restraint, and a recognition that there are extremists here that want nothing more than to trigger ... sectarian strife, and even a civil war."
Sunday, February 27, 2005
By Patrick McDonnell and Paul Richter, Los Angeles Times
BAGHDAD, Iraq -- Two years ago, as the United States planned to march into Baghdad, many in the Bush administration had a vision for Iraq's first freely elected government in decades: It would be a pro-U.S government that would support American military bases, embrace U.S. businesses, and serve as a model for democracy in the region.
Now, as Ibrahim Jaafari seems certain to become Iraq's new premier, the United States faces the prospects of dealing with a government whose views may be closer to Tehran's than to Washington's. And U.S. officials are left wondering how many of their assumptions will prove to be true.
The soft-spoken physician who spent nine years as an exile in Iran lately has been at pains to appear as a moderate on issues of religion in government. He and members of his United Iraqi Alliance slate have stressed they have differences with the Iranian theocratic model of government and that Iraqis need a government that will represent all groups.
"Iraq is actually made of various populations from all nationalities, sects and religions," Jaafari said in a recent interview with the Los Angeles Times at an ornate Baghdad government office. "Nobody can rule Iraq unless he would walk alongside all Iraqis and represent all the Iraqi people."
But many Iraqis and foreign observers note that he heads Iraq's oldest Islamist party and are worried that he will seek to impose a more religious government than he is letting on. They note that he has been lukewarm to the U.S. presence in Iraq and has stated that he would like to see U.S. troops withdraw once Iraqi forces are trained.
They also recall that former Iranian leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini initially disavowed political motives after an Islamic revolution overthrew the Shah of Iran in 1979. "All the experts got it wrong in Iran, too," said one senior U.S. diplomat in Baghdad with considerable experience in the region.
Before long, Khomeini was espousing the doctrine of "velayat-e-faqih," or rule of religious jurists. The Islamic state has since been a U.S. nemesis and was named three years ago in President Bush's so-called "axis of evil."
For the Bush administration, it would be painful if the doctrine resurfaces in Iraq, especially since the U.S. invasion cost more than 1,400 American lives and hundreds of billions of dollars.
U.S. officials have said they would work with whoever is elected, although they would have preferred current Prime Minister Iyad Allawi or Adel Abdul Mehdi, the interim government's finance minister. One senior administration official declined to say how U.S. officials view Jaafari. "We have a studied neutrality on that," he said.
But U.S. officials have cause for concern. Jaafari resisted U.S. offensives against insurgents in Fallujah and Najaf, leading to speculation that he could try to halt future U.S. attacks.
And while Jaafari has declared publicly that he favors human rights and an inclusive Iraqi government, he wants religion to have a key role in the government. Jaafari was one of the Shiite leaders who walked out during deliberations on Iraq's transitional law because he feared that it would not make Islam the sole source of Iraqi law.
Juan R. Cole, an expert on Iraq at the University of Michigan, said Jaafari may not suit the Americans as well as Allawi would have, but he is not expected to be hostile. "He'll get along with them," Cole said.
But many in Iraq worry that Shiite clerics could pressure Jaafari. The Khomeini-like turbaned image of Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the Iranian-born spiritual leader of Iraq's Shiites, was ubiquitous on campaign posters before the Jan. 30 elections. Sistani's tacit endorsement was considered key to the successful Jaafari's slate.
The reassurances by Jaafari and other slate leaders of moderation and independence from Iran have failed to mollify fears that Tehran could wield significant influence in the new Iraqi government. The slate's two major Shiite parties -- Jaafari's Dawa and the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq -- are seen by some Iraqis as Iranian fronts. U.S. officials are convinced that both parties receive financial aid from Iran.
The current defense minister, Hazim Shalaan, a secular Shiite, derided the Shiite slate as "an Iranian list."
Jaafari and other Shiite leaders have noted the Arab character of their slate and say they resent the second-class treatment meted out to Arabs in Iran, which has a Persian majority.
U.S. officials and others in Iraq hope that the Shiites' power would be checked by the Kurds who received the second-largest number of votes in the elections. The Kurds, by most accounts, would oppose any Shiite efforts to turn the country toward religious rule.
The Kurds control a block of 75 seats in the 275-seat transitional legislature that will ensure their role as "kingmakers," in the words of one Western official. The Shiite slate won 140 seats, well short of the two-thirds needed for crucial decisions. And the Shiite slate, which includes a cross-section of political and religious groups, could fracture, experts warn. Still, there is little question that the Shiite Islamists are in the strongest position as Iraq lurches toward some form of representative democracy.
Shiite leaders have indicated that they plan to kick out some 150,000 U.S. troops when they are no longer needed to fight the mainly Sunni Arab insurgents. "When there is a self-sufficiency regarding security, then the existence of foreign forces in Iraq, be they in the form of individual troops or in the form of military bases, will not be justified," Jaafari said.
That message may hearten some U.S. lawmakers who favor a complete pullout once Iraqi forces are able to contain the insurgency, a process that could take years. Jaafari's position would seem to rule out the hope that a stable Iraq would voluntarily host U.S. bases, providing an alternative to Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region.
Western diplomats say the major challenge facing Jaafari and the new government is holding the country together.
"In the past," noted another senior Western diplomat, "the Shiite community here has demonstrated an admirable level of self-restraint, and a recognition that there are extremists here that want nothing more than to trigger ... sectarian strife, and even a civil war."