ALinChainz
03-30-2005, 05:31 PM
by Jason Powell - Associate Editor, Fanball.com
Wednesday, March 30, 2005
This is the first in a series of keeper league articles that will examine the top five overall players and sleepers, as well as five names who should be considered trade bait. This article deals with the running back position.
The running back position is widely considered the most crucial element of a fantasy football team. As such, keeper league owners tend to fall all over themselves while attempting to build a stable of young running backs. This article focuses not only on the top five keeper running backs, but also ranks the top five keeper sleeper backs, as well as some of the aging running backs who might be worth more to owners in trade talks than they are as starters.
The following top five running backs ranking was determined by age, past performance, upside potential, and additional factors that are addressed in the accompanying commentary.
1. LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers Tomlinson is the most consistent performer in the game over the last four seasons. His touchdown totals have increased every since he joined the league in 2001, and he showed his versatility in 2003 by accumulating 100 receptions for 725 yards to go along with his 1,645 rushing yards. L.T. nursed a nagging groin injury through part of last season, yet still scored a career-best 18 touchdowns.
2. Shaun Alexander, Seahawks Alexander's value could drop dramatically if he is traded prior to the season. It's hard to imagine that his new team would have an offensive line on par with the big uglies who open holes for Shaun in Seattle. He's the type of runner who takes what is given to him. That's led to huge numbers in the Pacific Northwest, but a change in scenery could lead to fantasy disappointment. If Alexander doesn't change his address, it's hard to argue with a player who has produced 70 touchdowns over the last four seasons.
3. Priest Holmes, Chiefs The most dominating player in the league in two of the last three seasons has found the end zone 68 times over the course of the last three years. He was well on his way to another spectacular season in 2004 when he suffered sprained knee ligaments that were slow to heal. He's also only two years removed from hip surgery. As if the injury issues weren't enough of a concern, Holmes frightened this fantasy owner by telling reporters that he considers retirement every year. Call me crazy, but I seem to remember another former Texas running back by the name of Ricky Williams who shocked fantasy owners and the entire football world by retiring with no notice. Perhaps this is just paranoia on my part, but even so, I'll take the younger rushers over the former Longhorn on draft day.
4. Clinton Portis, Redskins This could be a bounce back year for Portis, who was held to just five rushing scores last season. The football world seems to be focused on the defensive players the Redskins lost during free agency, but the only thing that should matter to Portis owners is that Washington's offensive line should be much improved. The Redskins signed free agent center Casey Rabach earlier this month, and offensive tackle Jon Jansen is expected to return after missing last season with an Achilles' injury. Those additions combined with the run-first mentality of head coach Joe Gibbs should lead to a rebound for Portis, who could flirt with the 15-touchdown mark just as he did in 2002 and 2003.
5. Willis McGahee, Bills McGahee led some fantasy owners to championships last season by scoring eight touchdowns over the last six weeks of the season. He's all but run Travis Henry out of town (Henry has demanded a trade) and will enter this season as the starting tailback in Buffalo. Some owners will question my sanity because I listed McGahee below Portis in this section. Personally, I want to see McGahee perform at the same level for an entire season. And while the Redskins beefed up their offensive line during the offseason, the Bills are still reeling from the loss of gigantic offensive tackle Jonas Jennings, who signed with the 49ers. I don't expect Willis to suffer a dramatic drop off in 2005. Instead, I'm simply expecting bigger things from Portis.
Keeper Sleepers
The following running backs have yet to make a big splash in fantasy football. However, they are worthy of serious fantasy consideration. The players on this list have no more than three years experience and have yet to make a major impact in fantasy football. Example: Although Willis McGahee and Julius Jones are young players, they both produced big fantasy numbers last season and therefore are ineligible to appear in this section.
1. Tatum Bell, Broncos The latest buzz out of the Mile High city is that Mike Shanahan promised Quentin Griffin another go as the starting tailback. Apparently Mad Mike has forgotten that Griffin could have posed as a hobbit extra in the Lord of the Rings trilogy. Meanwhile, Bell looked great in limited doses last season. Tatum is bigger than "Q" (then again, who isn't?) and possesses breakaway speed that's a step ahead of the little guy. Psycho Shanny's infatuation with Griffin is frustrating, but I'm willing to wager that a healthy Bell will win the starting job in training camp.
2. Chris Brown, Titans One could argue that Brown showed enough last season that he should be disqualified from appearing in this section. Contrarily, I'm a firm believer that a running back should finish at least five games before he earns the title of proven commodity. I liked what I saw from Brown last season, but the problem is that I didn't get to see enough of him. This guy spent more time nursing injuries than Fox's "Cops" spends in the poor section of town. Brown topped the 1,000-yard mark despite playing in only a potion of 11 games last year. If he can stay healthy in 2005, Chrissy could reward the fantasy owners who stuck with him last season.
3. Steven Jackson, Rams My first instinct upon learning that Jackson had been named the starter was to move him way up in my running back rankings. But then it occurred to me that Marshall Faulk was just giving up the starting job, not retiring outright. Keep in mind that Faulk was the starter last season, which resulted in 195 carries, just 61 more than Jackson had. In other words, Jackson might be the starter, but I still expect Faulk to get his share of touches.
Note: This list had to be trimmed to three simply because there are not enough quality backs that fit the criteria. That should change on draft day, as rookies Ronnie Brown (Auburn), Cedrick Benson (Texas), and Carnell Williams (Auburn) might start this season for their new teams.
Staying Ahead of the Keeper Curve
The following list is composed of running backs who have been fantasy success stories over the years. Some of these players are entering the twilight of their illustrious careers, while others simply appear to have taken a turn for the worse for one reason or another.
1. Lee Suggs, Browns The addition of Rueben Droughns to the Browns' roster is a good indication that Suggs is out of a starting job next season. Oh sure, new head coach Romeo Crennel will probably claim that Droughns and Suggs battle it out the starting job during training camp, but I'm not buying it. Suggs wasn't Butch Davis's guy, and he's apparently not Crennel's guy either. Keeper league owners who have Suggs on their roster have little choice but to trade him now or do their best to obtain Droughns on draft day. Ask yourself, do you really want to have two Browns' backs on your roster? I didn't think so.
2. Thomas Jones, Bears Bears' general manager Jerry Angelo is rumored to be keen on the idea of selecting a running back with the No. 4 overall pick in next month's draft. Personally, I thought Jones performed well in the starting role last season (240 carries for 948 yards and seven touchdowns), and I'm stunned that the Bears are already entertaining the idea of giving up on a player they signed to a four-year, $10 million contract last March. Although it still wouldn't shock me if the Bears selected a wide receiver or a linebacker with their first pick on draft day, keeper league owners can not ignore the rumors. Do your best to downplay the draft rumors and see if you can still get a fair trade for Jones before it's too late.
3. Michael Pittman, Buccaneers Pittman returned from the dead (or at least a short stay in the Arizona penal system) to rush for 926 yards and seven touchdowns in 13 games last season. However, he fell out of favor with the coaching staff in Tampa by fumbling six times last season. Rumor has it that Bucs' head coach Jon Gruden is leaning toward selecting a running back with the No. 5 overall pick in next month's draft. If that rumor comes to fruition, there's a good chance that Michael will be back on the bench.
4. Fred Taylor, Jaguars That's it, I'm done with Taylor. I was such a believer in this guy last year that I turned down a pair of trade offers that included Tiki Barber. How did Fred repay the faith that I and many other fantasy owners placed in him? He scored a whopping three touchdowns. I hate to sound bitter. It's just that last season was the first time I even entertained the idea of having Fred on my roster following his injury-plagued early years. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me three times, I don't think so, Fraud Taylor.
5. Michael Bennett, Vikings The mere mention of this guy's name conjures up images of injuries and Moe Williams scoring touchdowns. Vikings' head coach Mike Tice claims the top-three running backs – Bennett, Onterrio Smith, Mewelde Moore – will battle it out for a starting job in training camp. Tice did say that Bennett has the edge heading into summer. Great, Mike, but what about Moe? You know, the guy who scored more rushing touchdowns in 2002 than Bennett has in his entire four-year career? By the way, Tice, how much for a pair of main floor tickets to the Velvet Revolver show?
Wednesday, March 30, 2005
This is the first in a series of keeper league articles that will examine the top five overall players and sleepers, as well as five names who should be considered trade bait. This article deals with the running back position.
The running back position is widely considered the most crucial element of a fantasy football team. As such, keeper league owners tend to fall all over themselves while attempting to build a stable of young running backs. This article focuses not only on the top five keeper running backs, but also ranks the top five keeper sleeper backs, as well as some of the aging running backs who might be worth more to owners in trade talks than they are as starters.
The following top five running backs ranking was determined by age, past performance, upside potential, and additional factors that are addressed in the accompanying commentary.
1. LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers Tomlinson is the most consistent performer in the game over the last four seasons. His touchdown totals have increased every since he joined the league in 2001, and he showed his versatility in 2003 by accumulating 100 receptions for 725 yards to go along with his 1,645 rushing yards. L.T. nursed a nagging groin injury through part of last season, yet still scored a career-best 18 touchdowns.
2. Shaun Alexander, Seahawks Alexander's value could drop dramatically if he is traded prior to the season. It's hard to imagine that his new team would have an offensive line on par with the big uglies who open holes for Shaun in Seattle. He's the type of runner who takes what is given to him. That's led to huge numbers in the Pacific Northwest, but a change in scenery could lead to fantasy disappointment. If Alexander doesn't change his address, it's hard to argue with a player who has produced 70 touchdowns over the last four seasons.
3. Priest Holmes, Chiefs The most dominating player in the league in two of the last three seasons has found the end zone 68 times over the course of the last three years. He was well on his way to another spectacular season in 2004 when he suffered sprained knee ligaments that were slow to heal. He's also only two years removed from hip surgery. As if the injury issues weren't enough of a concern, Holmes frightened this fantasy owner by telling reporters that he considers retirement every year. Call me crazy, but I seem to remember another former Texas running back by the name of Ricky Williams who shocked fantasy owners and the entire football world by retiring with no notice. Perhaps this is just paranoia on my part, but even so, I'll take the younger rushers over the former Longhorn on draft day.
4. Clinton Portis, Redskins This could be a bounce back year for Portis, who was held to just five rushing scores last season. The football world seems to be focused on the defensive players the Redskins lost during free agency, but the only thing that should matter to Portis owners is that Washington's offensive line should be much improved. The Redskins signed free agent center Casey Rabach earlier this month, and offensive tackle Jon Jansen is expected to return after missing last season with an Achilles' injury. Those additions combined with the run-first mentality of head coach Joe Gibbs should lead to a rebound for Portis, who could flirt with the 15-touchdown mark just as he did in 2002 and 2003.
5. Willis McGahee, Bills McGahee led some fantasy owners to championships last season by scoring eight touchdowns over the last six weeks of the season. He's all but run Travis Henry out of town (Henry has demanded a trade) and will enter this season as the starting tailback in Buffalo. Some owners will question my sanity because I listed McGahee below Portis in this section. Personally, I want to see McGahee perform at the same level for an entire season. And while the Redskins beefed up their offensive line during the offseason, the Bills are still reeling from the loss of gigantic offensive tackle Jonas Jennings, who signed with the 49ers. I don't expect Willis to suffer a dramatic drop off in 2005. Instead, I'm simply expecting bigger things from Portis.
Keeper Sleepers
The following running backs have yet to make a big splash in fantasy football. However, they are worthy of serious fantasy consideration. The players on this list have no more than three years experience and have yet to make a major impact in fantasy football. Example: Although Willis McGahee and Julius Jones are young players, they both produced big fantasy numbers last season and therefore are ineligible to appear in this section.
1. Tatum Bell, Broncos The latest buzz out of the Mile High city is that Mike Shanahan promised Quentin Griffin another go as the starting tailback. Apparently Mad Mike has forgotten that Griffin could have posed as a hobbit extra in the Lord of the Rings trilogy. Meanwhile, Bell looked great in limited doses last season. Tatum is bigger than "Q" (then again, who isn't?) and possesses breakaway speed that's a step ahead of the little guy. Psycho Shanny's infatuation with Griffin is frustrating, but I'm willing to wager that a healthy Bell will win the starting job in training camp.
2. Chris Brown, Titans One could argue that Brown showed enough last season that he should be disqualified from appearing in this section. Contrarily, I'm a firm believer that a running back should finish at least five games before he earns the title of proven commodity. I liked what I saw from Brown last season, but the problem is that I didn't get to see enough of him. This guy spent more time nursing injuries than Fox's "Cops" spends in the poor section of town. Brown topped the 1,000-yard mark despite playing in only a potion of 11 games last year. If he can stay healthy in 2005, Chrissy could reward the fantasy owners who stuck with him last season.
3. Steven Jackson, Rams My first instinct upon learning that Jackson had been named the starter was to move him way up in my running back rankings. But then it occurred to me that Marshall Faulk was just giving up the starting job, not retiring outright. Keep in mind that Faulk was the starter last season, which resulted in 195 carries, just 61 more than Jackson had. In other words, Jackson might be the starter, but I still expect Faulk to get his share of touches.
Note: This list had to be trimmed to three simply because there are not enough quality backs that fit the criteria. That should change on draft day, as rookies Ronnie Brown (Auburn), Cedrick Benson (Texas), and Carnell Williams (Auburn) might start this season for their new teams.
Staying Ahead of the Keeper Curve
The following list is composed of running backs who have been fantasy success stories over the years. Some of these players are entering the twilight of their illustrious careers, while others simply appear to have taken a turn for the worse for one reason or another.
1. Lee Suggs, Browns The addition of Rueben Droughns to the Browns' roster is a good indication that Suggs is out of a starting job next season. Oh sure, new head coach Romeo Crennel will probably claim that Droughns and Suggs battle it out the starting job during training camp, but I'm not buying it. Suggs wasn't Butch Davis's guy, and he's apparently not Crennel's guy either. Keeper league owners who have Suggs on their roster have little choice but to trade him now or do their best to obtain Droughns on draft day. Ask yourself, do you really want to have two Browns' backs on your roster? I didn't think so.
2. Thomas Jones, Bears Bears' general manager Jerry Angelo is rumored to be keen on the idea of selecting a running back with the No. 4 overall pick in next month's draft. Personally, I thought Jones performed well in the starting role last season (240 carries for 948 yards and seven touchdowns), and I'm stunned that the Bears are already entertaining the idea of giving up on a player they signed to a four-year, $10 million contract last March. Although it still wouldn't shock me if the Bears selected a wide receiver or a linebacker with their first pick on draft day, keeper league owners can not ignore the rumors. Do your best to downplay the draft rumors and see if you can still get a fair trade for Jones before it's too late.
3. Michael Pittman, Buccaneers Pittman returned from the dead (or at least a short stay in the Arizona penal system) to rush for 926 yards and seven touchdowns in 13 games last season. However, he fell out of favor with the coaching staff in Tampa by fumbling six times last season. Rumor has it that Bucs' head coach Jon Gruden is leaning toward selecting a running back with the No. 5 overall pick in next month's draft. If that rumor comes to fruition, there's a good chance that Michael will be back on the bench.
4. Fred Taylor, Jaguars That's it, I'm done with Taylor. I was such a believer in this guy last year that I turned down a pair of trade offers that included Tiki Barber. How did Fred repay the faith that I and many other fantasy owners placed in him? He scored a whopping three touchdowns. I hate to sound bitter. It's just that last season was the first time I even entertained the idea of having Fred on my roster following his injury-plagued early years. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me three times, I don't think so, Fraud Taylor.
5. Michael Bennett, Vikings The mere mention of this guy's name conjures up images of injuries and Moe Williams scoring touchdowns. Vikings' head coach Mike Tice claims the top-three running backs – Bennett, Onterrio Smith, Mewelde Moore – will battle it out for a starting job in training camp. Tice did say that Bennett has the edge heading into summer. Great, Mike, but what about Moe? You know, the guy who scored more rushing touchdowns in 2002 than Bennett has in his entire four-year career? By the way, Tice, how much for a pair of main floor tickets to the Velvet Revolver show?