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DrMaddVibe
04-26-2005, 06:54 AM
By Dana Priest
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, April 26, 2005; Page A01

U.S. investigators hunting for weapons of mass destruction in Iraq have found no evidence that such material was moved to Syria for safekeeping before the war, according to a final report of the investigation released yesterday.

Although Syria helped Iraq evade U.N.-imposed sanctions by shipping military and other products across its borders, the investigators "found no senior policy, program, or intelligence officials who admitted any direct knowledge of such movement of WMD." Because of the insular nature of Saddam Hussein's government, however, the investigators were "unable to rule out unofficial movement of limited WMD-related materials."

The Iraq Survey Group's main findings -- that Hussein's Iraq did not possess chemical and biological weapons and had only aspirations for a nuclear program -- were made public in October in an interim report covering nearly 1,000 pages. Yesterday's final report, published on the Government Printing Office's Web site ( http://www.gpo.gov ), incorporated those pages with minor editing and included 92 pages of addenda that tied up loose ends on Syria and other topics.

U.S. officials have held out the possibility that Syria worked in tandem with Hussein's government to hide weapons before the U.S.-led invasion. The survey group said it followed up on reports that a Syrian security officer had discussed collaboration with Iraq on weapons, but it was unable to complete that investigation. But Iraqi officials whom the group was able to interview "uniformly denied any knowledge of residual WMD that could have been secreted to Syria," the report said.

The report, which refuted many of the administration's principal arguments for going to war in Iraq, marked the official end of a two-year weapons hunt led most recently by former U.N. weapons inspector Charles A. Duelfer. The team found that the 1991 Persian Gulf War and subsequent U.N. sanctions had destroyed Iraq's illicit weapons capabilities and that, for the most part, Hussein had not tried to rebuild them. Iraq's ability to produce nuclear arms, which the administration asserted was a grave and gathering threat that required an immediate military response, had "progressively decayed" since 1991. Investigators found no evidence of "concerted efforts to restart the program."

Administration officials have emphasized that, while the survey group uncovered no banned arms, it concluded that Hussein had not given up the goal of someday acquiring them.

Hussein "retained the intent and capability and he intended to resume full-scale WMD efforts once the U.N. sanctions were lifted," Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman said yesterday. "Duelfer provides plenty of rationale for why this country went to war in Iraq."

In one of the addenda released yesterday, investigators addressed the risk that Iraqi scientists will share their knowledge or material with other countries, particularly Syria and Iran, given previous contacts, financial inducements and professional opportunities. The report concluded that the risk exists but said "there is only very limited reporting suggesting that this is actually taking place and no reports that indicate scientists were recruited to work in a WMD program."

As for the possibility that insurgents in Iraq will draw on the expertise of Iraqi scientists to develop unconventional weapons for use against the United States and its coalition forces, the report describes these efforts so far as being "limited and contained by coalition action." The survey group was aware of only one scientist assisting terrorists or insurgents. He helped them fashion chemical mortar munitions.

The report found that missing equipment, however, "could contribute to insurgent or terrorist production of chemical or biological agents."

In most cases the equipment appeared to have been randomly looted, but in selected cases it appeared "to be taken away carefully," Duelfer said in an interview yesterday. Overall, though, "it's like going to a demolition derby for car parts," said Duelfer. The right equipment "is hard to get."

Four military personnel assigned to the survey group's mission perished in the violence that engulfed Iraq, and five others were seriously wounded, in a mission that cost hundreds of millions of dollars.

No further work is planned, although teams are on hand to be dispatched when credible reports of weapons material are received in Iraq. The report says, however, that continued reports of banned arms in Iraq "are usually scams or misidentification of materials or activities." It predicts that such reports will continue.

Although new information may be forthcoming, Duelfer said in an accompanying letter that he has "confidence in the picture of events and programs covered by this report."

"If there were to be a surprise in the future," he added, "it most likely would be in the biological weapons area" because the size of those facilities can be so small.

Duelfer also recommended that the United States release some of the scientists and technocrats who are still being held captive in Iraq strictly because of their work on Iraq's weapons programs dating back to the Gulf War. "Many have been very cooperative and provided great assistance in understanding the WMD programs" and Iraq's intentions, and have exhausted their knowledge of these subjects, he wrote. "In my view, certain detainees are overdue for release."

Of 300 individuals on a "blacklist" developed by U.S. military and intelligence officials before the war, 105 have been detained. But the list, said the report, was flawed. "Some very despicable individuals who should have been listed were not, while many technocrats and even opponents of the Saddam regime made the list and hence found themselves either in jail or on the run."

The Pentagon's Whitman said that he was unaware of any scientists who had been released recently because of Duelfer's appeal and that the Defense Department routinely reviews detainees' status to see "whether or not they are a threat to the coalition and Iraqi security forces and whether or not they continue to have intelligence value."



So it begs the everloving question...Saddam, was it worth it? If you could...Would you do it again?

Nickdfresh
04-26-2005, 08:53 AM
The last paragraph.

WHAT SADDAM WAS REALLY THINKING
New disclosures paint a surprising portrait of the Iraqi dictator and his fateful strategies
By JOHANNA MCGEARY

Oct. 18, 2004
FOR YEARS, SADDAM HUSSEIN SHOWED himself to be a master practitioner of the big bluff. Everyone outside Iraq and just about everyone inside believed that he harbored a secret stockpile of weapons of mass destruction. So imagine the shock his generals received in late 2002 when U.S. forces were massing on the country's borders for an imminent invasion, and Saddam suddenly informed them that Iraq had no biological or chemical or nuclear weapons at all. Longtime aide Tariq Aziz told U.S. interrogators that military morale plummeted the moment senior officers learned Iraq would have to fight the U.S. without those weapons. The dictator's cunning policy of deception had deceived the wrong side.

Saddam had always hoped to dictate how history would view him. In his mind, he was the successor to great Iraqi heroes like Nebuchadnezzar and Saladin, to be revered as a giant among them for millenniums. But the Saddam who emerges from the pages of a new, comprehensive CIA report on Iraq's alleged arsenal will be remembered for the colossal misjudgments that cost him his rule. The exhaustive detail compiled by the report's author, Charles Duelfer, chief U.N. weapons inspector in the 1990s and the Bush Administration's top hunter since January, richly fills in the previous portrait of a paranoid and brutal dictator who believed that weapons of mass destruction (WMD) were the prime tools with which to advance his extravagant ambitions. Drawn from lengthy interrogations of the core Iraqi leadership and Saddam during their months in U.S. custody, the Duelfer report sheds fresh light on the dictator's inner motivations and artful deceptions.

Saddam was awed by science and impressed by the way technology conveyed military power. To him, WMD were a telling symbol of strength and modernity, and he thought any country that could develop them had an intrinsic right to do so. In his experience, through 25 years and two wars, WMD had also saved his neck. In the 1980s war with Iran, he concluded that chemical shells had repelled the enemy's human-wave attacks and that ballistic missiles had broken the will of its leaders. He was convinced that his readiness to use WMD during the Gulf War in 1991 had prevented the U.S.-led liberators of Kuwait from marching all the way to Baghdad to topple his regime. In a closed-door chat between Saddam and a senior aide just before the Gulf War began, the report says, he had ordered that "germ and chemical warheads ... be in [military officers'] hands ASAP" and targeted to hit Riyadh and Jeddah, "the biggest Saudi cities with all the decision-makers and where the Saudi rulers live," as well as "all the Israeli cities." He had squelched the Kurdish rebellion by gassing villages and put down the Shi'ite uprising in the wake of the Gulf War with the help of nerve gas.

But by the spring of 1991, Saddam faced a critical decision. Though defeated on the battlefield, he had kept stocks of WMD squirreled away and maintained secret development programs. Now he faced tough postwar U.N. sanctions that would cripple Iraq unless he got rid of the WMD. Saddam made a calculated decision, says the report, that getting out from under sanctions was of paramount importance. He opted for a "tactical retreat" by ordering the elimination of what he had left: all biological, chemical and nuclear programs were abandoned, stockpiles destroyed. The vast array of evidence uncovered to date shows that when the U.S. invaded in March 2003, Saddam had not been armed with WMD for a decade and that his ability to make new ones had been in a state of continual degradation.

But according to the report, former officials say they "heard him say or inferred" that he "intended to resume" developing his chemical- and nuclear-weapon capability--though biological warfare no longer interested him--once sanctions were lifted. The regime had "no formal written strategy or plan" to do so, but lieutenants say they "understood" that was his goal "from their long association with Saddam and his infrequent, but firm, verbal comments to them."

To hasten the day, Saddam turned his cunning to sanctions busting. He bought into the oil-for-food program in 1996 to acquire hard currency that could salvage his rock-bottom economy and pay for potential dual-use equipment on the black market. He personally doled out vouchers, which allowed recipients to buy Iraqi oil at a cheap price and then sell it for a quick profit, to foreign officials and companies, notably in France, Russia and China, that were expected to lobby their governments to lift sanctions. His wiles, said the report, had nearly scuttled the embargo by 2001.

Duelfer's report also gives an extraordinary, intimate glimpse into the dictator's behavior. Lieutenants thought his psychology was "powerfully shaped by a deprived and violent boyhood in a village and tribal society," especially by the strong influence of his xenophobic guardian uncle. One aide said Saddam "loved the use of force," confirming the tale that in 1982 he "ordered the execution" of a disloyal minister "and delivery of the dismembered body to the victim's wife."

Meanwhile, fear for his own survival increasingly ruled Saddam's daily life. He told his debriefer that he had used a telephone only twice since 1990, so no one could target him. He had his food tested for poisons at a special laboratory. He justified his orgy of palace building in the late '90s as a way to make it harder for enemies to spot him. He grew increasingly paranoid about assassination after attackers nearly killed his elder son Uday in 1996. In deepening seclusion, the former micromanager who used to personally ground-check the truth of his underlings' reports grew less engaged. A top aide reported it would "sometimes take three days to get in touch with Saddam," even in periods of crisis. At one point during the 2002 face-off with U.N. inspections, Saddam was AWOL, so a senior official took it on himself to authorize inspection overflights.

Still, in a regime in which all important decisions were made by his fiat, Saddam kept tight control of subordinates. Their influence and willingness to speak up were constrained by fear of losing their jobs--or their lives. That fear generated a culture of lying that subverted Saddam's decision making. Top men, said an aide, "habitually" concealed unpleasant realities from Saddam. In late 2002 military officers lied about their preparedness, according to Aziz, which led Saddam to miscalculate Iraq's ability to deter an invasion.

Saddam had no clear picture of the U.S. He told his debriefer he tried to understand Western culture by watching U.S. movies and listening to Voice of America broadcasts. He loved Ernest Hemingway's novel The Old Man and the Sea because he read in the tale of the brave but failed fisherman a parallel to his own struggles. "Even a hollow victory was by his reckoning a real one," the report says. Far more worried about Iran, Saddam did not consider the U.S. a "natural adversary" and throughout the '90s, he had his officials make overtures for a dialogue with the U.S. He said he was disappointed that Washington never gave him a chance. In the end, Saddam's failure to figure out the U.S. cost him everything. He never got the profound impact of 9/11 on U.S. attitudes and stupidly overruled advisers' suggestion that he issue a message of condolence for the carnage. Well into 2002, he never thought the U.S. could stomach the casualties of an invasion to depose him, and then "thought the war would last a few days and it would be over." Said Aziz: "He was overconfident. He was clever. But his calculations were poor."

The greatest mystery, though, was his long game of deception: if Saddam had destroyed his WMD to escape from sanctions, why did he work so hard from 1991 until he was overthrown in 2003 to perpetuate the belief he still had them? The reason, suggests Duelfer, lay in how he saw the "survival of himself, his regime and his legacy." While the U.S. was fixated on Saddam's threat, he focused on his strategies for Iran and considered WMD essential to keeping his neighbor in check. So he was driven by what the report calls "a difficult balancing act": getting rid of his WMD to win relief from the sanctions while pretending he still had them to serve as a strategic deterrent. "The regime never resolved the contradiction inherent in this approach," says the report. Saddam privately told an aide the "better part of war was deceiving," but ironically he was telling the West the truth. In the end, his big bluff destroyed him--and drew the U.S. into an engagement that will help determine George W. Bush's fate at the polls next month.

--With reporting by Timothy J. Burger and Elaine Shannon/Washington

DrMaddVibe
04-26-2005, 12:35 PM
Didn't work out too well for him!

Sucks to be Saddam!

Nickdfresh
04-26-2005, 01:00 PM
Originally posted by DrMaddVibe
Didn't work out too well for him!

Sucks to be Saddam!

I'll agree with you there. He was too busy writing a novel at the time the American Army was massing on his borders to notice.

FORD
04-26-2005, 03:20 PM
I don't think Saddam was considering Bush or PNAC when he decided to maintain the illusion of being armed. He was considering the warring factions within Iraq, the Iranians with whom he had already fought a 10 year war, and probably Israel.

Here's another question though.... What excuse will PNAC use to invade Syria now?

DrMaddVibe
04-26-2005, 05:08 PM
I don't think Syria is on the board. Iran maybe. Syria...didn't they just turn tail and run from Lebanon?