French EU treaty battle focuses on the undecided

[BigBadBrian]

French EU treaty battle focuses on the undecided
By Timothy Heritage
Reuters
Mon May 23, 8:53 AM ET



Opponents and supporters of the European Union's new constitution battled on Monday to win over the undecided voters who could determine the fate of the charter in a cliff-hanger referendum on Sunday.

Opinion polls put the "No" camp ahead in France as well as in the Netherlands, which votes on the treaty on June 1, raising the prospect of a double rejection which could hold up European integration and cause jitters on financial markets.

The latest French poll showed 52 percent of people who have decided how to vote will reject the constitution, but suggested one in four voters were still undecided.

"The vote on May 29 is going to be tight. Each of us has a historic ballot paper in their hand. So I appeal to people to be responsible," Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin told the Center-Presse Poitiers newspaper, demanding a high turnout.

However, the "No" camp believes a strong turnout will work in its favor. Far-right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen said he was confident the treaty would be rejected, but added: "Above all it's necessary for the (would-be) abstainers to come and vote."

Whichever way undecided voters turn, they are key. "The outcome is in their hands," said Francois Miquet-Marty of the Louis Harris Institute research group.

The constitution is intended to set new rules to make the EU work more smoothly following its enlargement in May 2004. Rejection could, in theory, kill it because it needs the approval of all 25 member states to go into force.

A key swing group are left-wing voters, who are split into two camps. Most of the opposition Socialist Party's leaders back the charter and their main task in the last five days of campaigning is to persuade left-wing sympathisers to back them.

The ruling conservatives are trying to convince people to vote on the merits of the constitution and not to think of it as a plebiscite on the government's unpopular economic policies.

Opponents are maintaining their attacks on the EU in general and the treaty in particular, saying a better charter can be renegotiated.

ROLLING OUT THE BIG GUNS

Uncertainty over European integration has increased as a result of German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's call for a national election a year early following his Social Democrats' defeat in a state election on Sunday.

"European construction is threatened with breakdown," the newspaper Le Monde said in an editorial.

Campaigning in France is now going into overdrive, with each side rolling out its big guns at rallies and meetings throughout the country this week.

Schroeder and Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero will attend rallies on Friday to try to boost the "Yes" camp, and President Jacques Chirac is expected to try to win over undecided voters with a final intervention at some stage.

Leaders of the "No" camp, including Socialist Laurent Fabius, will be prominent at "No" rallies planned throughout France.

The constitution's supporters in France say it will help make decision-making easier, make Europe stronger and reinforce its economy. They say rejecting the charter would leave France isolated and there is no chance of renegotiating the treaty.

Opponents say the constitution imposes an economic model on the EU which they regard as too liberal, does not protect workers and will drive companies out of well-established member states such as France to countries with lower wages and costs.

Link (http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20050523/ts_nm/eu_constitution_france_dc_1&printer=1)

[BigBadBrian]

French singing song of angry men
By Elaine Sciolino The New York Times
TUESDAY, MAY 24, 2005


MONTPELLIER, France Over sausage sandwiches and vast amounts of beer and local wine, the thousands of Frenchmen stood around and argued over how best to save France. Save France from Europe, that is, the Europe that France played perhaps the most crucial role in building a half-century ago.

But now, say the anti-globalizers and anti-imperialists, the farmers and factory workers who crammed into the smoky exhibition hall in this southern city, Europe has lost its way. They may be treated like traitors and imbeciles by their opponents, they add, but they call themselves patriots.

"I feel like a rock star," said Jean-Luc Mélenchon, a Socialist senator from Essonne, as he was hugged and kissed by fans for breaking with his party and joining the no camp. "People stop me on the streets to tell me their problems and ask for my opinion about the constitution. I tell them it is absolutely monstrous."

Poll after poll predicts that the French will reject the constitutional treaty in a referendum on Sunday. If that happens, certainly the 25-country EU will go on as before under existing treaties and France, one of the original six founders, will remain one of its most important members.

But rejection will have deep repercussions for both France and Europe. It will be a humiliating personal defeat for President Jacques Chirac.

Chirac confidently announced last July that the constitution would be decided by a popular referendum and not by the Parliament.

His personal approval rating, meanwhile, slipped to an eight-year low of 39 percent in a BVA-L'Express poll released on May 20.

A no vote could paralyze decision-making in the EU for months, delay agreement on the Union's next seven-year budget, slow down the torturous process of admitting new members, inhibit the ability of the EU to project power as a bloc in foreign and economic policy, and make it even more difficult to impose discipline on member's spending and inflation levels.

Even if a decision is made to continue the ratification process until all member states decide which way to go, the constitution needs a unanimous yes to come into force. In short, a no vote in France will at the very least slow down the forward momentum of a Europe as a united force.

The "partisans for the no," as the rejectionists on both ends of the political spectrum are called, are already celebrating. On Friday night, it was a gathering of leftists. They wore badges and carried balloons declaring that to love Europe is to vote no. They bought $5-a-bottle merlot made by an area cooperative with custom-designed labels that said no. They sang along to Edith Piaf's "Non, je ne regrette rien." They chanted "No, no, all together, all together," as speaker after speaker told them they were right. A handful of workers from the local IBM factory told stories of jobs that had moved to places like Slovakia, the Philippines and China.

"This is a democratic insurrection," José Bové, the sheep farmer and union leader who is France's most visible opponent of globalization, told the cheering crowd. He proposed what he called an "amusing action" for the day after the referendum: He said that all French voters should take the copies of the constitution that they received in their mailboxes, "put them in envelopes and send them back" to Chirac.

The rally was one of dozens of events scheduled for the frenzied final days of the national campaign before the May 29 referendum. Chirac's center-right government has joined forces with the Socialist Party and other mainstream political parties, France's business establishment and most of the political and economic elite of Europe in a desperate, last-ditch effort to turn the tide.

As election day approaches, the constitution has seized France; the debate has turned ugly. The major newspapers have published thick sections with major excerpts and commentary and constitution debates dominate radio and television. Political figures and the major parties have churned out DVDs urging people to vote yes. Five of the country's 10 top nonfiction best-sellers deal with the constitution.

The desperation of the yes side has made strange bedfellows, including a joint campaign appearance by rival presidential hopefuls: Nicolas Sarkozy, the center-right UMP party leader, and François Hollande, the Socialist Party leader.

Much of the elite has spoken of the constitution's defeat in apocalyptic terms. Chirac, has said that France "would cease to exist politically in the bosom" of Europe if France votes no. Some 100 business leaders have issued a joint manifesto saying that a no vote would not cause immediate economic trauma, it would be "a grave error" in the long-term. Mario Monti, the EU's former competition commissioner, has warned that a rejection would trigger a crisis of confidence among investors that could turn Europe into a "suburb of Shanghai." Romano Prodi, former president of the European Commission, has gone further, predicting "the end of Europe."

But other political figures have warned of the risks of over-dramatizing the consequences of a no, which could further alienate voters. "I'm not going to play it up as the apocalypse," François Fillon, the minister of education, was quoted as telling a small soirée at a home outside Paris earlier this month. "I will not tell you that if the no passes, Europe is going to stop and France will be banished from the Union."

Both the left and the right have preyed on voters' fears that the constitution is an "ultra-liberal" treaty one ruled by the market economy - that will rob them of their generous health, employment, educational and pension benefits.

Jean-Marie Le Pen, leader of the far right National Front, which opposes the treaty, has weighed in with another reason to oppose it. He has said (incorrectly) that the treaty's ratification would mean Turkey's admission to the EU and waves of "non-European" Turkish immigrants, gypsies from Romania and Bulgaria, and other "miserable native populations of the east."

The campaign underscores another political phenomenon as well: a vast gap between the French elite and ordinary voters. "There is a real division in French society today between France from on high and France from below," said Jean-Paul Fournier, the center-right mayor of Nîmes, who supports the constitution, but whose citizens voted in 1992 against the EU treaty that ushered in the euro.

In a poll in the Midi Libre newspaper released on May 20, 61 percent of the population of the French province of Gard, which includes Nîmes, said it would vote no.

Fournier and his administrators have lobbied for the constitution in neighborhoods throughout the city, which suffers from more than 15 percent unemployment and where both the Communist Party and the National Front are strong. In some of its tough suburbs, unemployment is as high as 40 percent.

One of the challenges Fournier faces in selling the constitution is that it promises nothing tangible and immediate. "I get asked all the time, 'What's in this for France?"' he said in an interview in his office. "The problem is that I can't say to the unemployed worker, 'If you vote for the constitution, you will get a job.' I would be lying. I tell them this is a vision for the long-term, for their children and grandchildren."

Patrice Couderc, secretary general of the CFDT union of the Gard region, added another angle: "Our politicians have done a great job of blaming the European Union when things go bad, but never praising it when its money helps build a bridge or a hospital, when it imposes an improvement in working conditions or equal rights for women. The worker, the person in the street, doesn't understand the debate of the elite."

Link (http://www.iht.com/bin/print_ipub.php?file=/articles/2005/05/24/news/vote.php)

[BigBadBrian]

French in disarray as they admit EU treaty vote is lost
By Charles Bremner in Paris and Philip Webster, Political Editor



THE leader of France’s ruling party has privately admitted that Sunday’s referendum on the European constitution will result in a “no” vote, throwing Europe into turmoil.
“The thing is lost,” Nicolas Sarkozy told French ministers during an ill-tempered meeting. “It will be a little ‘no’ or a big ‘no’,” he was quoted as telling Jean-Pierre Raffarin, the Prime Minister, whom he accused of leading a feeble campaign.



Although Europe would be thrown into disarray, the Government would be greatly relieved if M Sarkozy were right.

Ministers have privately told The Times that Britain is prepared to ditch its commitment to a referendum if France, or the Netherlands next Wednesday, vote against the constitution. They believe that if the French say “no”, President Chirac will have to declare the constitution dead or promise a renegotiation.

Because French voters consider that the treaty has already given too many concessions to Britain, ministers see no likelihood of the Government being able to put a renegotiated treaty to the country.

Tony Blair would instead have to use Britain’s imminent EU presidency to try to save those parts of the constitution that can be enforced without a treaty. That could mean that mechanical changes, such as ending the six-month rotating presidency of the EU, could go through.

The mood of pessimism that descended on the French Government after ten successive polls showing the “no” camp leading was echoed by Valéry Giscard d’Estaing, the former French President, who drafted the constitution. He blamed the failures of the “yes” campaign on the half-heartedness of France’s leaders.

“Our current leaders are of course believers in the idea of Europe but in their heart of hearts they are not men and women who are inspired by a European feeling,” he told a French newspaper.

President Chirac will go on television tonight to deliver a last-ditch appeal to his country to resist the temptation to vote “no” and trigger a crisis for the whole European Union.

But the President, who called the referendum in July last year but has done little campaigning, was reported to be pessimistic and telling visitors to the Elysée Palace that he expected a “no”.

M Sarkozy’s outburst came after M Raffarin, who is expected to lose his job in the event of a defeat, told ministers and the leadership of M Chirac’s UMP party that they should avoid defeatism but be prepared to limit the damage from the crisis from a “no”, party sources said.

After Philippe Douste-Blazy, the Health Minister, insisted that “we should trust the head of state”, M Sarkozy retorted: “Everything has to change — our way of doing politics . . . the labour law.” He said that the UMP would demand changes after the referendum and that “the Government had better follow the party”, the sources said.

M Sarkozy wants to be President and is locked in a bitter rivalry with M Chirac. The leaking of the row by M Sarkozy’s camp was a sign of the rising bad blood between the party leader and M Chirac’s team.

Mr Blair, pressed in the Commons to make plain that Britain would not go ahead if there were a rejection of the treaty in France’s vote on Sunday or the Dutch poll next Wednesday, effectively did so.

He said yesterday only that there would be a referendum before any constitutional treaty was ratified in Britain. He carefully avoided saying that there would be a referendum come what may.

He said: “If any country did vote ‘no’ there would have to be a discussion at the European Council on it to see the way forward and there is really nothing else to say at this point.”

Link (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,13509-1628272,00.html)

[BigBadBrian]

Isn't anyone paying any attention to this?

Where in the sam hell are Jerome and Jano?

How are you guys voting on this?

What is your opinion?

Sesh?

Grimmy?

Kentucky?

It's the EU Constitution for crying out loud. :rolleyes:

[Mr Grimsdale]

Originally posted by BigBadBrian
Isn't anyone paying any attention to this?
....
It's the EU Constitution for crying out loud. :rolleyes:

Exactly. It's the EU Constitution. Ever watched paint dry? Whatever happens in the vote I'll probably be dead before it starts having an effect.

The Constitution is a compromise designed to try and appeal to everyone and in so doing appeals to very few. The muppets in Brussels, and most member countries, need a kick up the arse.

If they enforced a single currency and a single interest rate but got rid of pretty much everything else associated with the EU, particularly the utter bollocks that is the EU Declaration of Human Rights (or whatever it's called), I'd actually be for it. There's no reason that Europe as a united block can't be a very, very powerful player, we've got stacks of talent to play a leading role in all sorts of fields but too much time is spent discussing things over and over again so nothing gets achieved. The way it's lead at the moment and the way they want to do it means it'll only be fit for a bunch of lilly livered halfwits, otherwise known as Greeks. Oops, did I say that last bit out loud? I meant Albanians, no er...

[Nickdfresh]

Originally posted by Mr Grimsdale
Exactly. It's the EU Constitution. Ever watched paint dry? Whatever happens in the vote I'll probably be dead before it starts having an effect.

The Constitution is a compromise designed to try and appeal to everyone and in so doing appeals to very few. The muppets in Brussels, and most member countries, need a kick up the arse.

If they enforced a single currency and a single interest rate but got rid of pretty much everything else associated with the EU, particularly the utter bollocks that is the EU Declaration of Human Rights (or whatever it's called), I'd actually be for it. There's no reason that Europe as a united block can't be a very, very powerful player, we've got stacks of talent to play a leading role in all sorts of fields but too much time is spent discussing things over and over again so nothing gets achieved. The way it's lead at the moment and the way they want to do it means it'll only be fit for a bunch of lilly livered halfwits, otherwise known as Greeks. Oops, did I say that last bit out loud? I meant Albanians, no er...

He he he! You need to post more here HERR GRIMMY...

[Jérôme Frenchise]

Originally posted by BigBadBrian
Isn't anyone paying any attention to this?

Where in the sam hell are Jerome and Jano?

How are you guys voting on this?

What is your opinion?

Sesh?

Grimmy?

Kentucky?

It's the EU Constitution for crying out loud. :rolleyes:

Well I'm in a hurry, I've got to go back to look after my pupils now, but I'll come back in a few hours.
The latest polls give 55% of no's and 45 % of yes's.
In fact, it is the last chance for the majority of dissatisfied voters to express their anger. Though it isn't about national issues, they're going to take it out on that referendum. The next elections will take place in May 2007 (presidential election).
I just can't make up my mind between "oui" and "non". I wouldn't mind a little nuance... My bro suggested "nouin" :D , he even made mock voting papers by scanning the official ones.
Anyway, we've been in trouble for years now, and if the CEE was the panacea, it would be no secret... The only thing I'm sure of is I won't vote "oui".

[Mishar_McLeud]

By the time this constitution takes an effect I won't be in the EU so could care less.

[BigBadBrian]

Interesting....


:gulp:

[Jérôme Frenchise]

This is it. NO by 55%. Observers tonight say it's a "sanction vote", which must be true. Those who were for "yes" keep on repeating it's a bad stroke for the country, blah-blah... :rolleyes: Chirac's government and their socialist opponents will go "it's too bad, now our country has missed a great chance, etc."
What puzzles me is I shared the same vote as communists (yes, we still have some :D ) and extreme rightists. But a referendum leaves such limited room for expression...
The president dared saying huge bullshit on Thursday night, trying to make us believe that the European Union is meant to defend our social benefits... His action, following the very letter of the fucking OECD, has aimed at breaking them one by one for 3 years now! We've had our share of ultra-liberalism. The European Union kind of symbolizes it, hence tonight's result.

[Jano]

The NO win!!
Great !the french revolution is on again!

[Jérôme Frenchise]

Originally posted by Jano
The NO win!!
Great !the french revolution is on again!

Chiche! :D

[Jano]

Il faut bien commencer un jour!
C'est un bon depart,je pense!

[kentuckyklira]

Originally posted by Mr Grimsdale
Exactly. It's the EU Constitution. Ever watched paint dry? Whatever happens in the vote I'll probably be dead before it starts having an effect.

The Constitution is a compromise designed to try and appeal to everyone and in so doing appeals to very few. The muppets in Brussels, and most member countries, need a kick up the arse.

If they enforced a single currency and a single interest rate but got rid of pretty much everything else associated with the EU, particularly the utter bollocks that is the EU Declaration of Human Rights (or whatever it's called), I'd actually be for it. There's no reason that Europe as a united block can't be a very, very powerful player, we've got stacks of talent to play a leading role in all sorts of fields but too much time is spent discussing things over and over again so nothing gets achieved. The way it's lead at the moment and the way they want to do it means it'll only be fit for a bunch of lilly livered halfwits, otherwise known as Greeks. Oops, did I say that last bit out loud? I meant Albanians, no er... True dat!

Cheers! BTW!

[Jérôme Frenchise]

Originally posted by Mr Grimsdale
Exactly. It's the EU Constitution. Ever watched paint dry? Whatever happens in the vote I'll probably be dead before it starts having an effect.

The Constitution is a compromise designed to try and appeal to everyone and in so doing appeals to very few. The muppets in Brussels, and most member countries, need a kick up the arse.

If they enforced a single currency and a single interest rate but got rid of pretty much everything else associated with the EU, particularly the utter bollocks that is the EU Declaration of Human Rights (or whatever it's called), I'd actually be for it. There's no reason that Europe as a united block can't be a very, very powerful player, we've got stacks of talent to play a leading role in all sorts of fields but too much time is spent discussing things over and over again so nothing gets achieved. The way it's lead at the moment and the way they want to do it means it'll only be fit for a bunch of lilly livered halfwits, otherwise known as Greeks. Oops, did I say that last bit out loud? I meant Albanians, no er...

Fine words. :) But where do you live? You sound so close... :D

[Jano]

Watch out he could be german!Lollllll!!!!

[Jérôme Frenchise]

Originally posted by Jano
Watch out he could be german!Lollllll!!!!

:D

They weren't asked to vote. I wonder what they would have voted.

As for a revolution... I'm in! If the South-West and the South-East join together, Eurocrats better watch out! :)

[Jano]

No shit brother!
J'attend avec impatience le vote des hollandais!

[Mr Grimsdale]

It appears that I have single handedly united Europe!

Hooray. Muffins all round.

[Golden AWe]

The newspaper of today said only 20% of the french who voted against it did it because of what the constitution itself includes...

I'm thrilled of the result of this vote. A really good wake-up call for the EU.

The constitution itself would be all so 1950's anyway - it won't work in the union of 2000's