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12-08-2005, 01:11 AM
Effort to rebuild Iraq falls short
Analysts say that with reconstruction progress contingent upon a peaceful Iraq, U.S. not meeting goals
BY CRAIG GORDON
WASHINGTON BUREAU
December 7, 2005, 11:46 PM EST
WASHINGTON -- It was supposed to have been a major part of the Pentagon's war-after-the-war to win over Iraqi goodwill and squelch a budding insurgency, an $18.4 billion bonanza of new schools, hospitals and other projects to restore a war-torn land.
President George W. Bush highlighted that effort Wednesday and insisted that the Iraqi people were making "amazing progress" in building a democratic Iraq. But the statistics suggest a different story -- one of a U.S.-led effort that has failed to deliver dramatic gains in key areas.
Even Bush acknowledged "fits and starts" in the U.S. aid program and said flatly at one point that "reconstruction has not always gone as well as we had hoped," mainly because of insurgency violence. In his second speech in a week designed to reverse public opposition to the war, Bush cited two Iraqi cities as examples of the better life to come throughout Iraq, progress that the White House says could allow U.S. troops to start coming home next year.
In Shia-held Najaf and multi.ethnic Mosul, "they're gaining a personal stake in a peaceful future and their confidence in Iraq's democracy is growing," Bush said in a Washington speech. "And more of Iraq's people are seeing the real benefits that a democratic society can bring."
But even in praising new schools, hospitals, roads and bridges built there, Bush pointed to problems that have plagued the U.S. reconstruction efforts across Iraq -- shortages of electricity, clean water and sewage capacity, and the presence of kidnappers, insurgents and armed militias. And he acknowledged that U.S. officials miscalculated in their initial efforts to rebuild Iraq, shifting from major projects to emphasizing more modest ones, quickly completed and highly visible.
Rep. John Murtha, the Pennsylvania Democrat who reignited the debate about pulling U.S. troops out of Iraq, said at a news conference after the speech that removing American military forces from the fight against insurgents is "the only way" to make progress.
"There's no question they're going to withdraw," Murtha said. "I predict a big proportion of the troops will be out by next year."
Added House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi: "Just because he says things are improving there, doesn't make it so."
Several outside analysts also said Wednesday that Bush overstated the progress made by Iraq's economy. They said failures in the reconstruction program had severely set back U.S. efforts to secure Iraq, combat the insurgency and set the stage for U.S. forces to leave.
The goal of the reconstruction effort was simple: to pump the bulk of $18.4 billion in U.S. aid into a series of major public works projects to show Iraqis that they could profit by sticking with the Americans and turning against the insurgents.
But "the security conditions make it extremely hard to roll out projects, so you can't separate the security problem from the slow pace of reconstruction. And you can't defeat the insurgency until you make progress on reconstruction and the political track. That's why we're chasing our tails in Iraq today," said David Phillips, who worked on a State Department planning effort for post-war Iraq.
Based on a number of key indicators, the reconstruction effort is falling short of U.S. goals and, at times, even of pre-war output under Saddam Hussein. Most of the $18.4 billion for reconstruction has been pledged to projects -- though about half, or $9.5 billion, actually has been spent, according to the State Department.
Electricity is still well below demand -- at 3,700 megawatts in November, compared to the July 2004 U.S. goal of 6,000 megawatts and nationwide demand of 9,000 megawatts. Iraqis get about 14 hours of electricity per day nationwide, according to figures compiled by the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank.
Oil production -- which Pentagon officials once hoped would provide the funds for Iraqi reconstruction -- still has not returned to pre-war levels, mainly due to insurgent sabotage of facilities.
Unemployment remains as high as 40 percent. And even in relatively peaceful sectors like southern Basra, many Iraqis, as recently as this summer, said they were hard-pressed to see the fruits of U.S. reconstruction.
Iraq's economy "is at roughly the level of the latter Saddam years, which, after a decade of sanctions and three decades of dictatorial rule, doesn't represent a very impressive benchmark," said Michael O'Hanlon, a Brookings defense analyst.
Analysts say that with reconstruction progress contingent upon a peaceful Iraq, U.S. not meeting goals
BY CRAIG GORDON
WASHINGTON BUREAU
December 7, 2005, 11:46 PM EST
WASHINGTON -- It was supposed to have been a major part of the Pentagon's war-after-the-war to win over Iraqi goodwill and squelch a budding insurgency, an $18.4 billion bonanza of new schools, hospitals and other projects to restore a war-torn land.
President George W. Bush highlighted that effort Wednesday and insisted that the Iraqi people were making "amazing progress" in building a democratic Iraq. But the statistics suggest a different story -- one of a U.S.-led effort that has failed to deliver dramatic gains in key areas.
Even Bush acknowledged "fits and starts" in the U.S. aid program and said flatly at one point that "reconstruction has not always gone as well as we had hoped," mainly because of insurgency violence. In his second speech in a week designed to reverse public opposition to the war, Bush cited two Iraqi cities as examples of the better life to come throughout Iraq, progress that the White House says could allow U.S. troops to start coming home next year.
In Shia-held Najaf and multi.ethnic Mosul, "they're gaining a personal stake in a peaceful future and their confidence in Iraq's democracy is growing," Bush said in a Washington speech. "And more of Iraq's people are seeing the real benefits that a democratic society can bring."
But even in praising new schools, hospitals, roads and bridges built there, Bush pointed to problems that have plagued the U.S. reconstruction efforts across Iraq -- shortages of electricity, clean water and sewage capacity, and the presence of kidnappers, insurgents and armed militias. And he acknowledged that U.S. officials miscalculated in their initial efforts to rebuild Iraq, shifting from major projects to emphasizing more modest ones, quickly completed and highly visible.
Rep. John Murtha, the Pennsylvania Democrat who reignited the debate about pulling U.S. troops out of Iraq, said at a news conference after the speech that removing American military forces from the fight against insurgents is "the only way" to make progress.
"There's no question they're going to withdraw," Murtha said. "I predict a big proportion of the troops will be out by next year."
Added House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi: "Just because he says things are improving there, doesn't make it so."
Several outside analysts also said Wednesday that Bush overstated the progress made by Iraq's economy. They said failures in the reconstruction program had severely set back U.S. efforts to secure Iraq, combat the insurgency and set the stage for U.S. forces to leave.
The goal of the reconstruction effort was simple: to pump the bulk of $18.4 billion in U.S. aid into a series of major public works projects to show Iraqis that they could profit by sticking with the Americans and turning against the insurgents.
But "the security conditions make it extremely hard to roll out projects, so you can't separate the security problem from the slow pace of reconstruction. And you can't defeat the insurgency until you make progress on reconstruction and the political track. That's why we're chasing our tails in Iraq today," said David Phillips, who worked on a State Department planning effort for post-war Iraq.
Based on a number of key indicators, the reconstruction effort is falling short of U.S. goals and, at times, even of pre-war output under Saddam Hussein. Most of the $18.4 billion for reconstruction has been pledged to projects -- though about half, or $9.5 billion, actually has been spent, according to the State Department.
Electricity is still well below demand -- at 3,700 megawatts in November, compared to the July 2004 U.S. goal of 6,000 megawatts and nationwide demand of 9,000 megawatts. Iraqis get about 14 hours of electricity per day nationwide, according to figures compiled by the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank.
Oil production -- which Pentagon officials once hoped would provide the funds for Iraqi reconstruction -- still has not returned to pre-war levels, mainly due to insurgent sabotage of facilities.
Unemployment remains as high as 40 percent. And even in relatively peaceful sectors like southern Basra, many Iraqis, as recently as this summer, said they were hard-pressed to see the fruits of U.S. reconstruction.
Iraq's economy "is at roughly the level of the latter Saddam years, which, after a decade of sanctions and three decades of dictatorial rule, doesn't represent a very impressive benchmark," said Michael O'Hanlon, a Brookings defense analyst.