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BigBadBrian
03-27-2006, 06:51 PM
The Sino-Russian strategic romance
Mar 27, 2006
by Peter Brookes


A blossoming Sino-Russian romance is undercutting U.S. global interests on an unprecedented scale. But the relationship is about more than balancing American predominance in the post-9/11 world--Russia and China have their eyes on restraining European and Japanese power, too.

A failure to connect the seemingly scattered dots of Russian-Chinese cooperation--and recognize its hazards--could put Moscow and Beijing's power-hungry potentates in distasteful positions of increasing advantage over the U.S., its friends and allies.

Just look at the U.N., where Russia and China are hampering U.S. and European Union-led efforts to address Iran's nuclear program. While Iran was reported to the Security Council weeks ago, little progress has been made in, even, condemning Tehran, much less imposing economic sanctions.


No surprise: Neither Moscow nor Beijing want to bully their buddy, Tehran. They've way too much at stake. China has billions invested in Iran's oil/gas fields; Russia wants to make its own billions in reprocessing Iranian reactor fuel. Both sell millions in advanced weapons to Iran.

In Beijing, China hosts the Six-Party Talks (i.e., U.S., Russia, China, Japan, North/South Korea), aimed at containing and rolling back Pyongyang's nuclear weapons program. Years of diplomatic chitchat have yielded almost nothing due to Russian/Chinese unwillingness to squeeze the defiant North Koreans.

While North Korea may be an annoying, needy country cousin for Russia and China, neither minds that it causes nuclear-strength heartburn for Washington, exacerbating festering U.S.-South Korean alliance problems. China certainly doesn't lose sleep over North Korean missiles bore-sighted on Japan, either.

The Sino-Russian strategic parallelism is also exemplified by their blatant, anti-American call for the closure of U.S. bases in Central Asia (used for Afghan ops), succeeding in Uzbekistan, but falling short in Kyrgyzstan.

Last summer, Russia and China conducted their first-ever joint military exercises, which included 10,000 military, intelligence and internal security forces. Both capitals claimed the drills weren't aimed at any country-not that anyone in the U.S., Taiwan or Japan believed that...

Russia and China also meet annually for bilateral military and technical cooperation talks. Rumors abound that at the Beijing meeting last December, plans were laid for another series of joint military exercises later this year.

Of course, Russia is fueling China's military buildup. In addition to billions of dollars in advanced submarines, fighters, destroyers and missiles, Beijing recently purchased strategic aircraft from Russia for troop movement, air-to-air refueling and AWACS-type duties.

Moreover, China and Russia have been cooperating on foreign and military intelligence since the early 1990s, and both are growing counterintelligence problems for the U.S., Europe and Japan, especially against high-tech and military targets. Facilitated by the end of Cold War-era travel restrictions, Chinese and Russian spooks see open societies as easy pickings.

According to the FBI, China is now America's greatest spy threat. But Russian intel operations--under Russian President Vladimir Putin (a former KGB Colonel)--are at an all-time, post-Berlin Wall high, too. In fact, just last week, the Pentagon claimed Russia gave U.S. war plans and troop movements to the Iraqis.

Chinese espionage rings have also been exposed in Europe; Russia redoubled its efforts there in recent years. With the presence of U.S. forces (of interest to Beijing and Moscow), an advanced scientific-technical base and weak espionage laws, Japan is a spy's happy hunting ground.

In a match made in heaven, just last week, the world's second largest energy producer (i.e., Russia, after Saudi Arabia) signed a slew of energy deals with the world's second largest energy consumer (i.e., China, after the U.S.), including building a 3,000 kilometer-long gas pipeline.

The pacts allow Beijing, now the world's fourth biggest economy, to feed its insatiable energy appetite, while competing with energy-poor Japan for access to Russian oil/gas resources. For Russia, China will decrease their dependence on the demanding, increasingly "Green" European market.

On balance, everything isn't completely rosy between the two capitals: There are trade frictions, mass Chinese migration into resource-wealthy Siberia, latent Russian concerns about China's growing military muscle and a budding Russo-Japanese rapprochement.

Sure, China and Russia aren't perfect strategic partners. But, their concerns about American global power, EU/NATO expansion, more Orange/Rose/Tulip revolutions and Japan's higher international profile, are encouraging the long-time rivals to give each other a second look.

Regrettably, neither power is just interested in geopolitical balancing. Putin's Russia is nostalgic for its Soviet glory days; President Hu Jintao's China wants to restore the all-powerful Middle Kingdom. For the moment, neither country at the top of the international order is in the interest of the U.S., its friends or allies.

Peter Brookes is a Senior Fellow at the Heritage Foundation. Mr. Brookes focuses on foreign policy and national security affairs. This column appears in the New York Post.

Link (http://www.townhall.com/opinion/columns/peterbrookes/2006/03/27/191337.html)

Mr Grimsdale
03-28-2006, 01:45 PM
While I agree it's a potentially dangerous alliance you can't really blame them. What's good for the goose is good for the gander etc etc. I don't actually see much chance of stopping China now, sure it's a divided society with pockets of immense wealth. The Russians are doing the sensible thing and tagging along for the ride. The only hope you've got is that the divide in Chinese society widens to the point that the country effectively tears itself apart but I can't see their political system allowing that.

Nickdfresh
03-28-2006, 01:57 PM
The only thing we can do is hope that the Chinese system cannot keep 1.3 billion in line forever (and maybe prod it a little bit). There is already evidence that there is a strain on the security forces and absolute centralized control. I think even the Party realizes this, and has instituted some very local, limited elections. Hopefully people will demand reforms and a multi-party political system... It will happen sooner or later, the question is: will we be third world countries by then?

Hardrock69
03-28-2006, 02:10 PM
I was so happy when the Tianenmen Square thing began to blow up...I thought for sure the Chinese were finally gonna stand up to the Commie fucks and scream:


"WE'RE AS MAD AS HELL AND WE'RE NOT GONNA TAKE IT ANYMORE!!!"

Certainly when some news reports stated that several Army divisions were headed to Beijing to SUPPORT the students....

I thought it was gonna be grate.

Of course then it deteriorated into the usual head-cracking and after-the-fact executions and jail sentences by the Commie Bastids...
:mad: