LoungeMachine
07-02-2006, 01:21 AM
Mexican presidential election remains contentious
By Hugh Dellios
Chicago Tribune
(MCT)
CUAUTITLAN, Mexico - A deeply divided Mexico goes to the polls Sunday to decide whether to stick with the U.S.-friendly policies of President Vicente Fox or to clean house.
At the end of the most competitive, negative campaign in Mexican history, the results of the two-man, left-vs.-right race could be even more important to the prosperity of the U.S.' southern neighbor than Fox's landmark victory six years ago.
Perlita Hernandez Monteyo, 33, plans to vote for Fox ally Felipe Calderon. Why? As a result of the conservative Fox's "government of change," her family qualified for a housing credit that allowed them to own their first home and feel part of a small but growing middle class.
Hilda Cruz Martinez, 30, will vote for former Mexico City Mayor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. Her family lives in a two-room shack with no running water and only hijacked electricity. She said she believes only a fresh start with the leftist ex-mayor will help poor people like her have a decent life.
"Our hope is with him," Cruz said. "From Fox, I saw nothing."
The two families' dreams and passions explain why the race between Lopez Obrador and Calderon is so close and divisive, and why Mexico faces such a crossroads so soon after Fox ended 71 years of one-party rule by the corrupt Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI.
The results matter greatly to the United States. A Lopez Obrador victory would put Mexico among a growing number of Latin American nations ruled by leftists suspicious of U.S.-backed policies. And the candidates have far different ideas about how to create jobs and end the nightmare of millions of people fleeing illegally over the border.
The two countries' billions of dollars in trade also could be affected. Calderon talks about making Mexico a private investor's heaven. Lopez Obrador speaks of reining in the excesses of globalization and renegotiating "unfair" parts of the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement.
While Mexicans breathed a sigh of relief when the attack ads ended by law last Wednesday, a record 40 million are expected to vote. On one side is a prospering, optimistic Mexico, mainly residing in the more urban north and best positioned to benefit from the pro-business path pushed by Fox. It is of this Mexico that Fox boasts when he notes that 19 percent of Mexican households have computers and 62 percent have washing machines while 1.1 million new cars hit the road last year.
On the other side is a disappointed Mexico, still waiting for the change that Fox promised in 2000. It resides mostly in the rural south, where few if any benefits arrived from NAFTA, farmers have watched their markets disappear and more and more people are a decision away from illegally migrating.
"It is indeed two Mexicos, and that helps us understand why people are so passionate for and against these candidates," said Gabriel Guerra, a political analyst. "The problem is that each camp exaggerated what the other side stands for."
Campaigning ended Wednesday with the ex-mayor slightly ahead in most polls, having struggled to recover from scathing attacks by Calderon and business leaders who called him "a danger to Mexico."
U.S. officials have remained officially neutral, saying they can work with whomever wins.
Denise Dresser, a prominent Mexican political commentator, said she believes the fear of Lopez Obrador hides a reluctance in Mexico to acknowledge itself as "a country profoundly and painfully unequal."
"His candidacy is a symptom," she said in a speech to the American Chamber Mexico organization. "A symptom of what? That there are too many Mexicans for whom the country doesn't work. That there are too many Mexicans for whom `more of the same' means `worse of the same.'"
She noted that 17 million Mexicans live in extreme poverty, 94 percent of crimes are unsolved and 40 percent of women suffer from domestic violence. Meanwhile, impunity is common for corruption and a tiny business elite enjoys government-sanctioned monopolies. "That is what should scare Mexicans," she said.
With the race so close, the margin of victory likely will come from the at least 8 percent of voters who were undecided. They include women, youths and middle-class voters frustrated with the stark choice between candidates and the mudslinging. Or the margin could come from PRI voters splitting off to vote for Lopez Obrador or Calderon because their candidate, Roberto Madrazo, continued to lag in third place.
The election is the first time since the 1920s that the PRI hasn't been the incumbent power with its candidate expected to win. But not everyone has ruled Madrazo out, given the PRI's enormous vote-rallying machine as well as lingering doubts about the effectiveness of Mexican opinion polling.
The government has helped fund a big campaign to get young people to the polls. But that turnout is expected to be slight, which some fear is a sign of how the excitement about democracy after Fox's victory has waned.
"My friends are really interested, but there are others who are staying away," said Monica Alaniz Rojas, 20, a university student in Mexico City. "It's a lack of confidence. Presidency after presidency, it's been fraud after fraud."
Democratic gains have not eliminated shenanigans. United Nation observers and others have uncovered some vote-buying and vote-twisting schemes.
But election officials have downplayed any irregularities. They say they don't expect trouble either during the vote or after, despite concerns that Lopez Obrador supporters will take to the streets if he loses.
On the margins of Mexico City, the Hernandez and Cruz families are among the hopeful heading to the polls.
In Cuautitlan, a northern Mexico City suburb, Perlita Hernandez moved her family into their own home two years ago in a private development of frightfully tidy, terra-cotta colored rowhouses. Her husband, Gerardo, is a factory janitor who makes $600 per month, from which they pay a $218 mortgage monthly.
It's all thanks to Fox's push to create more housing for families who never had access to bank credit before. Last year, he handed out his government's 2 millionth housing credit, more than any other president.
For that reason, Fox's years have indeed been years of change for the family, which never paid much attention to politics and elections before.
The tiny house isn't much: The living room runs into the kitchen, and the washing machine fits only out back on the porch. But for Hernandez, originally from a poor village in Veracruz, "it's just perfect."
"My mother rented all her life. For me, this is a dream," Hernandez said. "We have to vote for continuity. You can't change directions every six years."
On the opposite side of the metropolis, in Mexico City's sprawling Iztapalapa slum, Hilda Cruz lives among more than 2 million people who can barely dream about middle class. It is here that Lopez Obrador is king.
Perched on a hillside in their cramped two-room house, the Cruzes did not benefit directly from Lopez Obrador's programs while mayor, such as his monthly stipends to the elderly and single mothers.
But they hope to benefit from his promises to cut electricity bills and raise poor families' buying power by 20 percent. And community leaders tell them his government would help them solve legal problems with the neighborhood's land.
Calderon, Cruz says, will only help the rich.
Her husband, Fernando, migrated to the city from an Oaxacan farming village and was lucky to find a job operating a machine at a motor oil factory. More than once, he has contemplated departing for the U.S.
"Everybody here is inclined toward Lopez Obrador," Cruz said. "But when they start throwing rocks (negative ads) at each other, we just change the channel."
By Hugh Dellios
Chicago Tribune
(MCT)
CUAUTITLAN, Mexico - A deeply divided Mexico goes to the polls Sunday to decide whether to stick with the U.S.-friendly policies of President Vicente Fox or to clean house.
At the end of the most competitive, negative campaign in Mexican history, the results of the two-man, left-vs.-right race could be even more important to the prosperity of the U.S.' southern neighbor than Fox's landmark victory six years ago.
Perlita Hernandez Monteyo, 33, plans to vote for Fox ally Felipe Calderon. Why? As a result of the conservative Fox's "government of change," her family qualified for a housing credit that allowed them to own their first home and feel part of a small but growing middle class.
Hilda Cruz Martinez, 30, will vote for former Mexico City Mayor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. Her family lives in a two-room shack with no running water and only hijacked electricity. She said she believes only a fresh start with the leftist ex-mayor will help poor people like her have a decent life.
"Our hope is with him," Cruz said. "From Fox, I saw nothing."
The two families' dreams and passions explain why the race between Lopez Obrador and Calderon is so close and divisive, and why Mexico faces such a crossroads so soon after Fox ended 71 years of one-party rule by the corrupt Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI.
The results matter greatly to the United States. A Lopez Obrador victory would put Mexico among a growing number of Latin American nations ruled by leftists suspicious of U.S.-backed policies. And the candidates have far different ideas about how to create jobs and end the nightmare of millions of people fleeing illegally over the border.
The two countries' billions of dollars in trade also could be affected. Calderon talks about making Mexico a private investor's heaven. Lopez Obrador speaks of reining in the excesses of globalization and renegotiating "unfair" parts of the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement.
While Mexicans breathed a sigh of relief when the attack ads ended by law last Wednesday, a record 40 million are expected to vote. On one side is a prospering, optimistic Mexico, mainly residing in the more urban north and best positioned to benefit from the pro-business path pushed by Fox. It is of this Mexico that Fox boasts when he notes that 19 percent of Mexican households have computers and 62 percent have washing machines while 1.1 million new cars hit the road last year.
On the other side is a disappointed Mexico, still waiting for the change that Fox promised in 2000. It resides mostly in the rural south, where few if any benefits arrived from NAFTA, farmers have watched their markets disappear and more and more people are a decision away from illegally migrating.
"It is indeed two Mexicos, and that helps us understand why people are so passionate for and against these candidates," said Gabriel Guerra, a political analyst. "The problem is that each camp exaggerated what the other side stands for."
Campaigning ended Wednesday with the ex-mayor slightly ahead in most polls, having struggled to recover from scathing attacks by Calderon and business leaders who called him "a danger to Mexico."
U.S. officials have remained officially neutral, saying they can work with whomever wins.
Denise Dresser, a prominent Mexican political commentator, said she believes the fear of Lopez Obrador hides a reluctance in Mexico to acknowledge itself as "a country profoundly and painfully unequal."
"His candidacy is a symptom," she said in a speech to the American Chamber Mexico organization. "A symptom of what? That there are too many Mexicans for whom the country doesn't work. That there are too many Mexicans for whom `more of the same' means `worse of the same.'"
She noted that 17 million Mexicans live in extreme poverty, 94 percent of crimes are unsolved and 40 percent of women suffer from domestic violence. Meanwhile, impunity is common for corruption and a tiny business elite enjoys government-sanctioned monopolies. "That is what should scare Mexicans," she said.
With the race so close, the margin of victory likely will come from the at least 8 percent of voters who were undecided. They include women, youths and middle-class voters frustrated with the stark choice between candidates and the mudslinging. Or the margin could come from PRI voters splitting off to vote for Lopez Obrador or Calderon because their candidate, Roberto Madrazo, continued to lag in third place.
The election is the first time since the 1920s that the PRI hasn't been the incumbent power with its candidate expected to win. But not everyone has ruled Madrazo out, given the PRI's enormous vote-rallying machine as well as lingering doubts about the effectiveness of Mexican opinion polling.
The government has helped fund a big campaign to get young people to the polls. But that turnout is expected to be slight, which some fear is a sign of how the excitement about democracy after Fox's victory has waned.
"My friends are really interested, but there are others who are staying away," said Monica Alaniz Rojas, 20, a university student in Mexico City. "It's a lack of confidence. Presidency after presidency, it's been fraud after fraud."
Democratic gains have not eliminated shenanigans. United Nation observers and others have uncovered some vote-buying and vote-twisting schemes.
But election officials have downplayed any irregularities. They say they don't expect trouble either during the vote or after, despite concerns that Lopez Obrador supporters will take to the streets if he loses.
On the margins of Mexico City, the Hernandez and Cruz families are among the hopeful heading to the polls.
In Cuautitlan, a northern Mexico City suburb, Perlita Hernandez moved her family into their own home two years ago in a private development of frightfully tidy, terra-cotta colored rowhouses. Her husband, Gerardo, is a factory janitor who makes $600 per month, from which they pay a $218 mortgage monthly.
It's all thanks to Fox's push to create more housing for families who never had access to bank credit before. Last year, he handed out his government's 2 millionth housing credit, more than any other president.
For that reason, Fox's years have indeed been years of change for the family, which never paid much attention to politics and elections before.
The tiny house isn't much: The living room runs into the kitchen, and the washing machine fits only out back on the porch. But for Hernandez, originally from a poor village in Veracruz, "it's just perfect."
"My mother rented all her life. For me, this is a dream," Hernandez said. "We have to vote for continuity. You can't change directions every six years."
On the opposite side of the metropolis, in Mexico City's sprawling Iztapalapa slum, Hilda Cruz lives among more than 2 million people who can barely dream about middle class. It is here that Lopez Obrador is king.
Perched on a hillside in their cramped two-room house, the Cruzes did not benefit directly from Lopez Obrador's programs while mayor, such as his monthly stipends to the elderly and single mothers.
But they hope to benefit from his promises to cut electricity bills and raise poor families' buying power by 20 percent. And community leaders tell them his government would help them solve legal problems with the neighborhood's land.
Calderon, Cruz says, will only help the rich.
Her husband, Fernando, migrated to the city from an Oaxacan farming village and was lucky to find a job operating a machine at a motor oil factory. More than once, he has contemplated departing for the U.S.
"Everybody here is inclined toward Lopez Obrador," Cruz said. "But when they start throwing rocks (negative ads) at each other, we just change the channel."