Nickdfresh
10-19-2006, 11:49 AM
Iraq: U.S. Casualties and an Iranian Push
October 18, 2006 22 34 GMT
Summary
Ten more U.S. troops were killed in Iraq on Oct. 18, making October one of the deadliest months since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion. A number of factors relate to the uptick in U.S. casualties, one of which likely involves Iranian-backed Shiite militants orchestrating attacks on U.S forces.
Analysis
Ten U.S. soldiers were killed in attacks around Iraq on Oct. 18, bringing the U.S. military death toll to 69 for the month of October. With still two weeks to go, October is well on its way to earning the label of one of the deadliest months for U.S. forces since the war began in March 2003.
A large part of the rise in U.S. casualties is due to the operational tempo and changes in the exposure of U.S. troops. The United States has increased troop levels in Baghdad in an effort to stem sectarian and insurgent attacks that have spiraled out of control in recent months. While the United States wants to clamp down on security in Baghdad ahead of the U.S. midterm congressional elections in November to give the impression that Iraq is not completely in shambles, a rising U.S. death toll in a broadly unpopular war is not exactly likely to sit well with voters.
The rise in attacks on U.S. forces may not be due entirely to shifts in U.S. military strategy, however. There are growing indications that U.S. troops are facing attacks from Shiite elements, in addition to Sunni nationalist and jihadist insurgents. Shiite cleric Sheikh Mazen al-Saedi was arrested by U.S. forces Oct. 17 on charges of direct involvement in orchestrating attacks on U.S. forces, in addition to ordering kidnappings, killings and torture of Sunnis and Shiite rivals. Despite these charges, al-Saedi was released the very next day -- reportedly against the wishes of the U.S. military -- by order of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Al-Saedi is a senior aide to radical Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr, one of Iran's key instruments in Iraq.
Iran has carved a window of opportunity for itself to take advantage of Washington's weakened position in the international system. With North Korea pulling off a nuclear test and facing no real consequences, and with Iraq pulling the United States deeper into political paralysis, Tehran views U.S. threats as hollow. It sees a golden opportunity to redefine its position in the region through its dominance in Iraq and through its evolution into a nuclear power. As part of this effort, the Iranians have boldly increased their presence throughout the region in countries with sizable Shiite populations, such as Lebanon, Bahrain and Kuwait, where the Kuwaiti government is reportedly uncovering an alarming number of Iranian sleeper cells.
Moreover, with critical U.S. congressional elections approaching, Tehran is well aware of its ability to influence the election results by worsening the position of U.S. forces through its Shiite militant proxies in Iraq. And U.S. defense and intelligence agencies have closely monitored the potential for Iranian-trained Shiite militants to use Iraq as a battleground to strike at U.S. interests.
While the rise in U.S. casualties cannot be definitively linked to Iranian negotiating tactics, Washington will certainly want to keep any indication of an Iranian role in attacks against U.S. forces under wraps, in hopes of containing the Iranian issue while dealing with a North Korean nuclear crisis and battling off heavy criticism for the number U.S. lives lost in the Iraq war.
Iran knows the United States is in the middle of revising its strategy in Iraq and has been encouraged by comments made by James Baker, the former secretary of state to former U.S. President George H. W. Bush, who has been charged with the task of devising a new plan to slam the lid on the Iraqi Pandora's box. Baker has strongly advocated engaging Iran in direct negotiations over Iraq.
The weight in Washington given to Baker's recommendations has signaled to Iran that its position as a necessary piece of the Iraq puzzle allows it to take a bolder stance against the United States, with top Iranian nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani threatening Oct. 18 that any "adventurist" U.S. actions against Iran at the U.N. Security Council will have consequences "on a regional scale." And should Iran feel it has more room to push against the United States in the Iraqi arena, the death toll of U.S. forces in Iraq will continue to climb in the coming weeks.
Link (http://www.stratfor.com/products/premium/read_article.php?id=278395)
"Duh...bring 'em on!"
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October 18, 2006 22 34 GMT
Summary
Ten more U.S. troops were killed in Iraq on Oct. 18, making October one of the deadliest months since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion. A number of factors relate to the uptick in U.S. casualties, one of which likely involves Iranian-backed Shiite militants orchestrating attacks on U.S forces.
Analysis
Ten U.S. soldiers were killed in attacks around Iraq on Oct. 18, bringing the U.S. military death toll to 69 for the month of October. With still two weeks to go, October is well on its way to earning the label of one of the deadliest months for U.S. forces since the war began in March 2003.
A large part of the rise in U.S. casualties is due to the operational tempo and changes in the exposure of U.S. troops. The United States has increased troop levels in Baghdad in an effort to stem sectarian and insurgent attacks that have spiraled out of control in recent months. While the United States wants to clamp down on security in Baghdad ahead of the U.S. midterm congressional elections in November to give the impression that Iraq is not completely in shambles, a rising U.S. death toll in a broadly unpopular war is not exactly likely to sit well with voters.
The rise in attacks on U.S. forces may not be due entirely to shifts in U.S. military strategy, however. There are growing indications that U.S. troops are facing attacks from Shiite elements, in addition to Sunni nationalist and jihadist insurgents. Shiite cleric Sheikh Mazen al-Saedi was arrested by U.S. forces Oct. 17 on charges of direct involvement in orchestrating attacks on U.S. forces, in addition to ordering kidnappings, killings and torture of Sunnis and Shiite rivals. Despite these charges, al-Saedi was released the very next day -- reportedly against the wishes of the U.S. military -- by order of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Al-Saedi is a senior aide to radical Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr, one of Iran's key instruments in Iraq.
Iran has carved a window of opportunity for itself to take advantage of Washington's weakened position in the international system. With North Korea pulling off a nuclear test and facing no real consequences, and with Iraq pulling the United States deeper into political paralysis, Tehran views U.S. threats as hollow. It sees a golden opportunity to redefine its position in the region through its dominance in Iraq and through its evolution into a nuclear power. As part of this effort, the Iranians have boldly increased their presence throughout the region in countries with sizable Shiite populations, such as Lebanon, Bahrain and Kuwait, where the Kuwaiti government is reportedly uncovering an alarming number of Iranian sleeper cells.
Moreover, with critical U.S. congressional elections approaching, Tehran is well aware of its ability to influence the election results by worsening the position of U.S. forces through its Shiite militant proxies in Iraq. And U.S. defense and intelligence agencies have closely monitored the potential for Iranian-trained Shiite militants to use Iraq as a battleground to strike at U.S. interests.
While the rise in U.S. casualties cannot be definitively linked to Iranian negotiating tactics, Washington will certainly want to keep any indication of an Iranian role in attacks against U.S. forces under wraps, in hopes of containing the Iranian issue while dealing with a North Korean nuclear crisis and battling off heavy criticism for the number U.S. lives lost in the Iraq war.
Iran knows the United States is in the middle of revising its strategy in Iraq and has been encouraged by comments made by James Baker, the former secretary of state to former U.S. President George H. W. Bush, who has been charged with the task of devising a new plan to slam the lid on the Iraqi Pandora's box. Baker has strongly advocated engaging Iran in direct negotiations over Iraq.
The weight in Washington given to Baker's recommendations has signaled to Iran that its position as a necessary piece of the Iraq puzzle allows it to take a bolder stance against the United States, with top Iranian nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani threatening Oct. 18 that any "adventurist" U.S. actions against Iran at the U.N. Security Council will have consequences "on a regional scale." And should Iran feel it has more room to push against the United States in the Iraqi arena, the death toll of U.S. forces in Iraq will continue to climb in the coming weeks.
Link (http://www.stratfor.com/products/premium/read_article.php?id=278395)
"Duh...bring 'em on!"
http://www.cynical-c.com/archives/bloggraphics/pup_02.jpg