ULTRAMAN VH
11-03-2006, 07:15 AM
Why Democrats Are Worried
Can Republicans "Steele" away some of the black vote?
BY BRENDAN MINITER
Wednesday, November 1, 2006 12:01 a.m. EST
This week Maryland Republican Michael Steele won a surprising set of endorsements. Five black Democrats on the Prince George's County Council now support Mr. Steele for U.S. Senate. They join a growing list of prominent African-Americans, including recording artist Russell Simmons, who are backing the GOP's candidate in a strongly Democratic state.
What's happening in Maryland could have broader implications for both parties nationwide. Mr. Steele, who is black, is running a hard-charging campaign that is forcing the Democratic Party to confront its record on serving the black community. And the party's record is far from stellar. The updraft Mr. Steele is now feeling--he trails Democrat Ben Cardin, but remains within striking distance--is pent up frustration African-Americans feel toward their elected officials. And that updraft could put Mr. Steel over the top.
In Maryland registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by nearly 2 to 1, and black voters could cast as many as a quarter of the ballots on Election Day. That Mr. Steele trails at the outer reaches of the margin of error in the latest polls, and that nearly the same proportion of voters (36%) say they will "definitely" cast a ballot for the Republican as for the Democrat (37%), is a sign that the electorate is dissatisfied with the state's Democratic status quo. And a large part of that frustration comes from minority residents. Mr. Steele could win this race in parts of Baltimore and in Prince George's, the nation's wealthiest majority-black county.
What has Democrats really worried, however, is not that Mr. Steele has run a competitive campaign. It's that he may be a harbinger for a national trend, that a once-reliable voting bloc may bolt the Democratic Party, or at least start sitting out elections. And there are signs that blacks are increasingly frustrated with the Democratic Party.
In South Carolina this frustration reached a boiling point in September. The state votes overwhelmingly Republican. The GOP controls the governor's mansion as well as both houses of the state Legislature and will likely win nearly all statewide offices on the ballot this year. But Democrats were blindsided this fall when more than a dozen prominent black Democrats, including local civil rights leaders and state Rep. Harold Mitchell, endorsed the Republican running for the state's top education job.
Failing public schools are becoming a major electoral issue in South Carolina, and African-Americans are at the forefront in demanding reform. As these demands grow louder, black voters in substantial numbers could break party ranks or demand leaders who break with teacher unions. In either case, it could have repercussions in 2008 presidential politics. The state has been moved up to an early spot in the Democratic primary calendar, giving the South Carolina Democrats a lot of leverage over who will win the party's presidential nomination. If Hillary Clinton takes a "brave" stand in favor of school choice, it will likely be calculated to help her win South Carolina's primary.
Three contentious Democratic primaries this year revealed fissures within the party along racial lines. In each race, white Democrats ran hard-fought races against black candidates. Two of the primaries took place in districts specifically created to elect black candidates. One of them is in New York City, where after a bitter fight, an African-American candidate won the party's nomination. The second primary battle took place in Memphis, where Joe Ford, who is black, lost the nomination for a seat that his uncle held for more than two decades and that his cousin Harold Ford Jr. is giving up to run for Senate. Jake Ford, Harold's younger brother, is now running as an independent against Democrat Steve Cohen, who is white.
But it's Maryland's Senate primary, where Mr. Cardin defeated former congressman and NAACP chief Kweisi Mfume in September, that is resonating within the black community. In part that is because early on in the primary fight Donna Brazile, who is black and who ran Al Gore's presidential campaign in 2000, warned Democrats not to push Mr. Mfume out of the race lest the party be seen as taking African-American voters for granted. Mr. Cardin won the early backing of his party's establishment and was never able to overcome the perception that he was committing the very sin Ms. Brazile warned against.
If Mr. Steele does win next week, some credit will belong to Gov. Robert Ehrlich. Four years ago Mr. Ehrlich tapped Mr. Steele to be his running mate. The governor has led a fight to fix failing, predominantly black Baltimore schools. Mr. Ehrlich is now locked in a tight race for re-election against (who else?) Martin O'Malley, the mayor of Baltimore. It isn't lost on the parents of kids trapped in Baltimore schools that Mr. Ehrlich pushed for reforms only to be stymied by a Legislature dominated by Democrats.
I had the opportunity to sit down with Mr. Ehrlich recently and in a candid conversation he dropped this bit of political news: He recently met with Mr. Mfume, views him as someone he can work with, and would like to see the Democrat elected as the next mayor of Baltimore. The unwritten story this election season is that a few Republicans, including Messrs. Steele and Ehrlich, are finding ways to reach out to minority voters. We'll see on Tuesday how successful their efforts are and how worried Democrats need to be.
Mr. Miniter is assistant editor of OpinionJournal.com. His column appears Tuesdays.
www.opinionjournal.com
Can Republicans "Steele" away some of the black vote?
BY BRENDAN MINITER
Wednesday, November 1, 2006 12:01 a.m. EST
This week Maryland Republican Michael Steele won a surprising set of endorsements. Five black Democrats on the Prince George's County Council now support Mr. Steele for U.S. Senate. They join a growing list of prominent African-Americans, including recording artist Russell Simmons, who are backing the GOP's candidate in a strongly Democratic state.
What's happening in Maryland could have broader implications for both parties nationwide. Mr. Steele, who is black, is running a hard-charging campaign that is forcing the Democratic Party to confront its record on serving the black community. And the party's record is far from stellar. The updraft Mr. Steele is now feeling--he trails Democrat Ben Cardin, but remains within striking distance--is pent up frustration African-Americans feel toward their elected officials. And that updraft could put Mr. Steel over the top.
In Maryland registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by nearly 2 to 1, and black voters could cast as many as a quarter of the ballots on Election Day. That Mr. Steele trails at the outer reaches of the margin of error in the latest polls, and that nearly the same proportion of voters (36%) say they will "definitely" cast a ballot for the Republican as for the Democrat (37%), is a sign that the electorate is dissatisfied with the state's Democratic status quo. And a large part of that frustration comes from minority residents. Mr. Steele could win this race in parts of Baltimore and in Prince George's, the nation's wealthiest majority-black county.
What has Democrats really worried, however, is not that Mr. Steele has run a competitive campaign. It's that he may be a harbinger for a national trend, that a once-reliable voting bloc may bolt the Democratic Party, or at least start sitting out elections. And there are signs that blacks are increasingly frustrated with the Democratic Party.
In South Carolina this frustration reached a boiling point in September. The state votes overwhelmingly Republican. The GOP controls the governor's mansion as well as both houses of the state Legislature and will likely win nearly all statewide offices on the ballot this year. But Democrats were blindsided this fall when more than a dozen prominent black Democrats, including local civil rights leaders and state Rep. Harold Mitchell, endorsed the Republican running for the state's top education job.
Failing public schools are becoming a major electoral issue in South Carolina, and African-Americans are at the forefront in demanding reform. As these demands grow louder, black voters in substantial numbers could break party ranks or demand leaders who break with teacher unions. In either case, it could have repercussions in 2008 presidential politics. The state has been moved up to an early spot in the Democratic primary calendar, giving the South Carolina Democrats a lot of leverage over who will win the party's presidential nomination. If Hillary Clinton takes a "brave" stand in favor of school choice, it will likely be calculated to help her win South Carolina's primary.
Three contentious Democratic primaries this year revealed fissures within the party along racial lines. In each race, white Democrats ran hard-fought races against black candidates. Two of the primaries took place in districts specifically created to elect black candidates. One of them is in New York City, where after a bitter fight, an African-American candidate won the party's nomination. The second primary battle took place in Memphis, where Joe Ford, who is black, lost the nomination for a seat that his uncle held for more than two decades and that his cousin Harold Ford Jr. is giving up to run for Senate. Jake Ford, Harold's younger brother, is now running as an independent against Democrat Steve Cohen, who is white.
But it's Maryland's Senate primary, where Mr. Cardin defeated former congressman and NAACP chief Kweisi Mfume in September, that is resonating within the black community. In part that is because early on in the primary fight Donna Brazile, who is black and who ran Al Gore's presidential campaign in 2000, warned Democrats not to push Mr. Mfume out of the race lest the party be seen as taking African-American voters for granted. Mr. Cardin won the early backing of his party's establishment and was never able to overcome the perception that he was committing the very sin Ms. Brazile warned against.
If Mr. Steele does win next week, some credit will belong to Gov. Robert Ehrlich. Four years ago Mr. Ehrlich tapped Mr. Steele to be his running mate. The governor has led a fight to fix failing, predominantly black Baltimore schools. Mr. Ehrlich is now locked in a tight race for re-election against (who else?) Martin O'Malley, the mayor of Baltimore. It isn't lost on the parents of kids trapped in Baltimore schools that Mr. Ehrlich pushed for reforms only to be stymied by a Legislature dominated by Democrats.
I had the opportunity to sit down with Mr. Ehrlich recently and in a candid conversation he dropped this bit of political news: He recently met with Mr. Mfume, views him as someone he can work with, and would like to see the Democrat elected as the next mayor of Baltimore. The unwritten story this election season is that a few Republicans, including Messrs. Steele and Ehrlich, are finding ways to reach out to minority voters. We'll see on Tuesday how successful their efforts are and how worried Democrats need to be.
Mr. Miniter is assistant editor of OpinionJournal.com. His column appears Tuesdays.
www.opinionjournal.com