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01-01-2007, 09:06 AM
More troops unhappy with Bush's course in Iraq, poll finds
Updated 12/29/2006 12:05 PM ET
By Robert Hodierne, Military Times
WASHINGTON — The American military, once a staunch supporter of President Bush and the Iraq war, has grown increasingly pessimistic about chances for victory.
For the first time, more troops disapprove of the president's handling of the war than approve of it, according to the 2006 Military Times Poll.
When the military was feeling most optimistic about the war — in 2004 — 83% of poll respondents thought success in Iraq was likely. This year, that number has shrunk to 50%.
Only 35% of the military members polled this year said they approve of the way Bush is handling the war, and 42% said they disapprove. While approval of the president's war leadership has slumped, his overall approval remains high among the military.
Just as telling, in this year's poll only 41% of the military said the U.S. should have gone to war in Iraq in the first place, down from 65% in 2003. That closely reflects the beliefs of the general population — 45% agreed in a recent USA TODAY-Gallup poll.
IRAQ WAR: U.S. more pessimistic
Professor David Segal, director of the Center for Research on Military Organization at the University of Maryland, was not surprised by the changing attitude within the military.
"They're seeing more casualties and fatalities and less progress," Segal said. "Part of what we're seeing is a recognition that the intelligence that led to the war was wrong."
The survey, conducted by mail Nov. 13 through Dec. 22, is the fourth annual gauge of active-duty military subscribers to the Military Times newspapers. The results are not representative of the military as a whole. The survey's respondents, 945 this year, are on average older, more experienced, more likely to be officers and more career-oriented than the overall military population.
The poll's margin of error is plus or minus three percentage points.
Among the respondents, 66% have deployed at least once to Iraq or Afghanistan. That number is 72% in the overall active-duty force, according to the Department of Defense.
The poll has come to be viewed by some as a barometer of the professional career military. It is the only independent poll done on an annual basis.
Segal said he believes that military opinion often mirrors that of the civilian population, even though it might lag in time. He also said the military "will always be more pro-military and pro-war than the civilians. That's why they are in this line of work."
Whatever war plan the president announces next month, its ultimate goal likely will be to replace American troops with Iraqis. The military is not optimistic that will happen soon.
Only about one in five service members said large numbers of American troops can be replaced with Iraqi troops within the next two years. More than one-third think it will take more than five years. And more than half think the U.S. will have to stay in Iraq more than five years to achieve its goals.
Almost half of those responding think the United States needs more troops in Iraq. A surprising 13% said the U.S. should have no troops there.
As for Afghanistan force levels, 39% think we need more troops there. But while they want more troops in Iraq and Afghanistan, nearly three-quarters of the respondents think the military is stretched too thin to be effective.
Approval for Bush's overall performance as president remains high, at 52%. That's down from his high of 71% in 2004, but still far above the approval ratings of the general population, where that number has fallen into the 30s.
Copyright 2006 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
Link (http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/iraq/2006-12-29-poll-iraq_x.htm)
Updated 12/29/2006 12:05 PM ET
By Robert Hodierne, Military Times
WASHINGTON — The American military, once a staunch supporter of President Bush and the Iraq war, has grown increasingly pessimistic about chances for victory.
For the first time, more troops disapprove of the president's handling of the war than approve of it, according to the 2006 Military Times Poll.
When the military was feeling most optimistic about the war — in 2004 — 83% of poll respondents thought success in Iraq was likely. This year, that number has shrunk to 50%.
Only 35% of the military members polled this year said they approve of the way Bush is handling the war, and 42% said they disapprove. While approval of the president's war leadership has slumped, his overall approval remains high among the military.
Just as telling, in this year's poll only 41% of the military said the U.S. should have gone to war in Iraq in the first place, down from 65% in 2003. That closely reflects the beliefs of the general population — 45% agreed in a recent USA TODAY-Gallup poll.
IRAQ WAR: U.S. more pessimistic
Professor David Segal, director of the Center for Research on Military Organization at the University of Maryland, was not surprised by the changing attitude within the military.
"They're seeing more casualties and fatalities and less progress," Segal said. "Part of what we're seeing is a recognition that the intelligence that led to the war was wrong."
The survey, conducted by mail Nov. 13 through Dec. 22, is the fourth annual gauge of active-duty military subscribers to the Military Times newspapers. The results are not representative of the military as a whole. The survey's respondents, 945 this year, are on average older, more experienced, more likely to be officers and more career-oriented than the overall military population.
The poll's margin of error is plus or minus three percentage points.
Among the respondents, 66% have deployed at least once to Iraq or Afghanistan. That number is 72% in the overall active-duty force, according to the Department of Defense.
The poll has come to be viewed by some as a barometer of the professional career military. It is the only independent poll done on an annual basis.
Segal said he believes that military opinion often mirrors that of the civilian population, even though it might lag in time. He also said the military "will always be more pro-military and pro-war than the civilians. That's why they are in this line of work."
Whatever war plan the president announces next month, its ultimate goal likely will be to replace American troops with Iraqis. The military is not optimistic that will happen soon.
Only about one in five service members said large numbers of American troops can be replaced with Iraqi troops within the next two years. More than one-third think it will take more than five years. And more than half think the U.S. will have to stay in Iraq more than five years to achieve its goals.
Almost half of those responding think the United States needs more troops in Iraq. A surprising 13% said the U.S. should have no troops there.
As for Afghanistan force levels, 39% think we need more troops there. But while they want more troops in Iraq and Afghanistan, nearly three-quarters of the respondents think the military is stretched too thin to be effective.
Approval for Bush's overall performance as president remains high, at 52%. That's down from his high of 71% in 2004, but still far above the approval ratings of the general population, where that number has fallen into the 30s.
Copyright 2006 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
Link (http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/iraq/2006-12-29-poll-iraq_x.htm)