BigBadBrian
05-18-2007, 05:59 PM
ERIC SCHULMAN, ALEXANDRIA, VIRGINIA AND DANIEL DEBOWY, NEW YORK UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF MEDICINE - Our 2003 algorithm for determining the winners of United States presidential elections correctly determined the winner of each of the 55 U.S. presidential elections between 1789 and 2004.
We apply the algorithm to 44 Democratic and Republican candidates for the 2008 U.S. presidential election and find that the Democrats have nine tickets with electabilities greater than 150, whereas the Republicans have five tickets with electabilities greater than 150.
The most electable ticket, with an electability of 264, has Republican former Governor Tommy G. Thompson as the presidential candidate and Senator Charles T. Hagel as the vice presidential candidate.
The next most electable ticket, with an electability of 260, has Democratic retired General Wesley K. Clark as the presidential candidate and former Vice President Albert A. Gore Jr. as the vice presidential candidate. . .
We determined the electability for president and vice president of the Democratic and Republican candidates for the 2008 U.S. presidential election using the following formulas:
Presidential Electability = 5*(years as President) + years as U.S. Representative + 11(years as Governor), +110 if the candidate has been a four-star general officer in the United States Armed Forces, +110 if the candidate has been a college or university president or chancellor, +110 if the candidate is the child of a U.S. Senator, - 110 if the candidate has been divorced, - 110 if the candidate has been a special prosecutor, - 110 if the candidate was the first adherent of a particular religion (e.g., Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints) to be a major-party candidate for President, - 110 if the candidate was an officer of a lobbying organization at the time of the election. . .
The most electable ticket has Republican former Governor Tommy G. Thompson as the presidential candidate and Senator Charles T. Hagel as the vice presidential candidate.
The next most electable ticket has Democratic retired General Wesley K. Clark as the presidential candidate and former Vice President Albert A. Gore, Jr. as the vice presidential candidate.
We assume that major party primary voters are rational and will understand the empirical power of our algorithm. Democratic primary voters will therefore nominate Wesley K. Clark, Albert A. Gore Jr., William B. Richardson, or Christopher J. Dodd as their 2008 presidential candidate.
This candidate, being rational, will choose Albert A. Gore Jr., Birch E. Bayh III, or Christopher J. Dodd as their vice presidential running mate. Republican primary voters will nominate Tommy G. Thompson, George E. Pataki, Michael D. Huckabee, or James S. Gilmore III as their 2008 presidential candidate.
This candidate, being rational, will choose Charles T. Hagel or Richard B. Cheney as their vice presidential running mate (whether Mr. Cheney would accept a job that, as Vice President Nelson Rockefeller noted, "has no responsibility and no power" is beyond the scope of this paper).
Link (http://prorev.com/2007/05/great-moments-in-science-why-race.htm)
We apply the algorithm to 44 Democratic and Republican candidates for the 2008 U.S. presidential election and find that the Democrats have nine tickets with electabilities greater than 150, whereas the Republicans have five tickets with electabilities greater than 150.
The most electable ticket, with an electability of 264, has Republican former Governor Tommy G. Thompson as the presidential candidate and Senator Charles T. Hagel as the vice presidential candidate.
The next most electable ticket, with an electability of 260, has Democratic retired General Wesley K. Clark as the presidential candidate and former Vice President Albert A. Gore Jr. as the vice presidential candidate. . .
We determined the electability for president and vice president of the Democratic and Republican candidates for the 2008 U.S. presidential election using the following formulas:
Presidential Electability = 5*(years as President) + years as U.S. Representative + 11(years as Governor), +110 if the candidate has been a four-star general officer in the United States Armed Forces, +110 if the candidate has been a college or university president or chancellor, +110 if the candidate is the child of a U.S. Senator, - 110 if the candidate has been divorced, - 110 if the candidate has been a special prosecutor, - 110 if the candidate was the first adherent of a particular religion (e.g., Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints) to be a major-party candidate for President, - 110 if the candidate was an officer of a lobbying organization at the time of the election. . .
The most electable ticket has Republican former Governor Tommy G. Thompson as the presidential candidate and Senator Charles T. Hagel as the vice presidential candidate.
The next most electable ticket has Democratic retired General Wesley K. Clark as the presidential candidate and former Vice President Albert A. Gore, Jr. as the vice presidential candidate.
We assume that major party primary voters are rational and will understand the empirical power of our algorithm. Democratic primary voters will therefore nominate Wesley K. Clark, Albert A. Gore Jr., William B. Richardson, or Christopher J. Dodd as their 2008 presidential candidate.
This candidate, being rational, will choose Albert A. Gore Jr., Birch E. Bayh III, or Christopher J. Dodd as their vice presidential running mate. Republican primary voters will nominate Tommy G. Thompson, George E. Pataki, Michael D. Huckabee, or James S. Gilmore III as their 2008 presidential candidate.
This candidate, being rational, will choose Charles T. Hagel or Richard B. Cheney as their vice presidential running mate (whether Mr. Cheney would accept a job that, as Vice President Nelson Rockefeller noted, "has no responsibility and no power" is beyond the scope of this paper).
Link (http://prorev.com/2007/05/great-moments-in-science-why-race.htm)