FORD
07-07-2015, 12:43 PM
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Upcoming polls to lock in GOP debate field
More than a few Republicans are hoping their numbers will tick up at just the right time this month. (http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/upcoming-polls-to-lock-in-gop-debate-field-119793.html)
By Steven Shepard
7/7/15 5:08 AM EDT
John Kasich may be the last Republican to enter the presidential fray, but his timing could be the best: Exactly two weeks after the splash of his planned announcement on July 21, Fox News Channel will average together the latest polls of the Republican field and determine which 10 of the 16 announced candidates will participate in the first debate in Cleveland.
Making the cut gives a candidate the platform to stand out in a crowded field; not making the cut leaves him or her knocking on the door.
Every candidate — with the exceptions of Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, and Marco Rubio — is in danger of losing his or her place. That leaves the rest of the field hoping their numbers will tick up at just the right time, knowing that the tiniest fluctuation of numbers could be the difference between acceptance and rejection. The difference between being on the main debate stage and being relegated to the B-team is likely be at most 1 or 2 percentage points.
Kasich’s announcement could generate enough publicity to give him at least a brief bump — and a spot in the Aug. 6 debate at the expense of a rival. Political neophytes Ben Carson and Donald Trump seem likely to generate enough publicity on their own to get them over the polling hurdle. If Kasich can bounce into the top 10, that would leave the rest of the field — 10 candidates, almost all of whom have held major elective office — fighting for four spots.
“There will be a huge amount of attention and coverage around the first debate,” said one aide to a GOP presidential campaign, to whom POLITICO granted anonymity to discuss strategy candidly. “That’s when we’ll see a lot of voters tune in for the first time.”
In an effort to cut down on the more than two dozen debates held in the 2012 cycle, the Republican National Committee is sponsoring nine debates through March 1 — and warning candidates if they attend any unsanctioned gatherings they will not be invited to official events. Fox’s decision to further limit the debate to the top 10 candidates — in an effort to avoid a cacophony of voices — makes qualifying for the debate a necessity for campaigns struggling to appear viable.
And since national polls will determine which candidates are invited, a few are increasingly desperate to boost their horse-race standing in the days leading up to the debate — in essence, generating a bounce or sugar high in late July that will either vault them into the top 10 or help them stay there.
Carly Fiorina, the former Hewlett-Packard CEO who lost a Senate race in California five years ago, is banking on qualifying for the debate, but she is currently outside the top 10.
She is personally wealthy but has raised only $1.4 million for her campaign thus far. That leaves her relying on earned media to convey her message: She appeared on Fox six times last month, third among GOP candidates, according to the liberal news-tracking group Media Matters.
Fiorina also hasn’t made a secret of the importance of qualifying for the debate. Last week, she thanked her donors in posts on Twitter and Facebook for helping her to generate “the resources and momentum necessary to get to the debate stage in August.”
Now, time is running short. With the release of each GOP primary poll, media outlets like The Washington Post recalculate the average for each of the candidates to project which ones would be in the first debate if it were held today.
But the current average reflects only a baseline. None of the polls that currently compose it will be part of the average that Fox uses to determine which candidates it will invite.
A number of candidates are sweating a top 10 finish. At present, that includes Rick Perry and Chris Christie, who are both on the right side of the bubble. It also includes Rick Santorum, Fiorina, Kasich, Lindsey Graham, Bobby Jindal and George Pataki — all of whom are on the outside looking in.
Kasich might get a bounce from his announcement — assuming he files his statement of candidacy and personal financial disclosure to the Federal Election Commission to qualify for the debate. But for the other also-rans — whose campaigns are already underway — a post-announcement bump won’t work.
“I actually was surprised after Fox had announced how it was going to decide this that some candidates didn’t hold off on announcing” their campaigns, said Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray, who expects to release two more polls before the first debate.
So what, if anything, can a campaign do to surge into the top 10 at just the right time to be captured by the pre-debate polls?
A nationwide television advertising campaign — a cable buy on Fox, for example — could help. But that would be cost-prohibitive for most of the candidates on the bubble; some, like Fiorina, could pay for such an ad blitz from her personal funds.
But most of the candidates will likely turn to earned media, looking to generate headlines to boost their name ID and standing on the ballot test. That won’t be easy to do with Trump and the backlash against his comments on the stump sucking up so much of the oxygen; Trump was interviewed more on Fox last month than any other individual candidate.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if you see other candidates start throwing bigger bombs and becoming more incendiary to get some more attention,” said the campaign aide.
While Fox News hasn’t outlined the exact criteria, the cable network says it will pick the top 10 from an “average of the five most recent national polls, as recognized by Fox News leading up to August 4th at 5 PM/ET,” Fox News Executive Vice President Michael Clemente announced in May. “Such polling must be conducted by major, nationally recognized organizations that use standard methodological techniques.”
Because Fox has been vague about the criteria, it’s unclear which polls will be included. Does “standard methodological techniques” mean the polls must be conducted by live telephone interviewers? Automated phone polls wouldn’t help cull the field, since they can ask about only 10 candidates in the first place. But most observers think Fox is precluding polls conducted via the Web from being part of the average.
Will the network use only its own surveys and those from the other national news organizations (such as the ABC News/Washington Post and NBC News/Wall Street Journal polls)? Or will that also include polls from academic institutions with a national footprint?
The schools with major polling arms aren’t even clear whether their surveys will be part of the average.
“The Fox criteria in no way affects our poll,” said Quinnipiac University pollster Doug Schwartz. “This recognition is nice, but we were not consulted nor did we ask to be included.”
More important is whether the polls Fox includes will have loose or tight voter screens. That is, will the polls included be only those conducted among the most likely and committed primary voters and caucus-goers, or will they also include polls of broader, Republican-leaning Americans?
“It matters a great deal how active the people they’re polling are,” said a senior staffer on another GOP campaign, who pointed out that Fox’s GOP primary matchup is conducted only among likely voters. “The fact that Fox does likely voters shows they see a value in it. They could do a cheaper poll of all adults, but they don’t do that.”
Pollsters are usually hesitant to reveal their plans to the media, either to prevent campaigns from working to affect the results or for competitive reasons — particularly in the case of those who work for other news organizations. But many in the political polling field expect a rush of surveys to hit before the Fox deadline. A late-July surge could make all the difference.
“You’re going to see a bunch of polls released over that weekend and into Monday,” said Murray, the Monmouth pollster, “and those are the ones that are going to count.”
Upcoming polls to lock in GOP debate field
More than a few Republicans are hoping their numbers will tick up at just the right time this month. (http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/upcoming-polls-to-lock-in-gop-debate-field-119793.html)
By Steven Shepard
7/7/15 5:08 AM EDT
John Kasich may be the last Republican to enter the presidential fray, but his timing could be the best: Exactly two weeks after the splash of his planned announcement on July 21, Fox News Channel will average together the latest polls of the Republican field and determine which 10 of the 16 announced candidates will participate in the first debate in Cleveland.
Making the cut gives a candidate the platform to stand out in a crowded field; not making the cut leaves him or her knocking on the door.
Every candidate — with the exceptions of Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, and Marco Rubio — is in danger of losing his or her place. That leaves the rest of the field hoping their numbers will tick up at just the right time, knowing that the tiniest fluctuation of numbers could be the difference between acceptance and rejection. The difference between being on the main debate stage and being relegated to the B-team is likely be at most 1 or 2 percentage points.
Kasich’s announcement could generate enough publicity to give him at least a brief bump — and a spot in the Aug. 6 debate at the expense of a rival. Political neophytes Ben Carson and Donald Trump seem likely to generate enough publicity on their own to get them over the polling hurdle. If Kasich can bounce into the top 10, that would leave the rest of the field — 10 candidates, almost all of whom have held major elective office — fighting for four spots.
“There will be a huge amount of attention and coverage around the first debate,” said one aide to a GOP presidential campaign, to whom POLITICO granted anonymity to discuss strategy candidly. “That’s when we’ll see a lot of voters tune in for the first time.”
In an effort to cut down on the more than two dozen debates held in the 2012 cycle, the Republican National Committee is sponsoring nine debates through March 1 — and warning candidates if they attend any unsanctioned gatherings they will not be invited to official events. Fox’s decision to further limit the debate to the top 10 candidates — in an effort to avoid a cacophony of voices — makes qualifying for the debate a necessity for campaigns struggling to appear viable.
And since national polls will determine which candidates are invited, a few are increasingly desperate to boost their horse-race standing in the days leading up to the debate — in essence, generating a bounce or sugar high in late July that will either vault them into the top 10 or help them stay there.
Carly Fiorina, the former Hewlett-Packard CEO who lost a Senate race in California five years ago, is banking on qualifying for the debate, but she is currently outside the top 10.
She is personally wealthy but has raised only $1.4 million for her campaign thus far. That leaves her relying on earned media to convey her message: She appeared on Fox six times last month, third among GOP candidates, according to the liberal news-tracking group Media Matters.
Fiorina also hasn’t made a secret of the importance of qualifying for the debate. Last week, she thanked her donors in posts on Twitter and Facebook for helping her to generate “the resources and momentum necessary to get to the debate stage in August.”
Now, time is running short. With the release of each GOP primary poll, media outlets like The Washington Post recalculate the average for each of the candidates to project which ones would be in the first debate if it were held today.
But the current average reflects only a baseline. None of the polls that currently compose it will be part of the average that Fox uses to determine which candidates it will invite.
A number of candidates are sweating a top 10 finish. At present, that includes Rick Perry and Chris Christie, who are both on the right side of the bubble. It also includes Rick Santorum, Fiorina, Kasich, Lindsey Graham, Bobby Jindal and George Pataki — all of whom are on the outside looking in.
Kasich might get a bounce from his announcement — assuming he files his statement of candidacy and personal financial disclosure to the Federal Election Commission to qualify for the debate. But for the other also-rans — whose campaigns are already underway — a post-announcement bump won’t work.
“I actually was surprised after Fox had announced how it was going to decide this that some candidates didn’t hold off on announcing” their campaigns, said Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray, who expects to release two more polls before the first debate.
So what, if anything, can a campaign do to surge into the top 10 at just the right time to be captured by the pre-debate polls?
A nationwide television advertising campaign — a cable buy on Fox, for example — could help. But that would be cost-prohibitive for most of the candidates on the bubble; some, like Fiorina, could pay for such an ad blitz from her personal funds.
But most of the candidates will likely turn to earned media, looking to generate headlines to boost their name ID and standing on the ballot test. That won’t be easy to do with Trump and the backlash against his comments on the stump sucking up so much of the oxygen; Trump was interviewed more on Fox last month than any other individual candidate.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if you see other candidates start throwing bigger bombs and becoming more incendiary to get some more attention,” said the campaign aide.
While Fox News hasn’t outlined the exact criteria, the cable network says it will pick the top 10 from an “average of the five most recent national polls, as recognized by Fox News leading up to August 4th at 5 PM/ET,” Fox News Executive Vice President Michael Clemente announced in May. “Such polling must be conducted by major, nationally recognized organizations that use standard methodological techniques.”
Because Fox has been vague about the criteria, it’s unclear which polls will be included. Does “standard methodological techniques” mean the polls must be conducted by live telephone interviewers? Automated phone polls wouldn’t help cull the field, since they can ask about only 10 candidates in the first place. But most observers think Fox is precluding polls conducted via the Web from being part of the average.
Will the network use only its own surveys and those from the other national news organizations (such as the ABC News/Washington Post and NBC News/Wall Street Journal polls)? Or will that also include polls from academic institutions with a national footprint?
The schools with major polling arms aren’t even clear whether their surveys will be part of the average.
“The Fox criteria in no way affects our poll,” said Quinnipiac University pollster Doug Schwartz. “This recognition is nice, but we were not consulted nor did we ask to be included.”
More important is whether the polls Fox includes will have loose or tight voter screens. That is, will the polls included be only those conducted among the most likely and committed primary voters and caucus-goers, or will they also include polls of broader, Republican-leaning Americans?
“It matters a great deal how active the people they’re polling are,” said a senior staffer on another GOP campaign, who pointed out that Fox’s GOP primary matchup is conducted only among likely voters. “The fact that Fox does likely voters shows they see a value in it. They could do a cheaper poll of all adults, but they don’t do that.”
Pollsters are usually hesitant to reveal their plans to the media, either to prevent campaigns from working to affect the results or for competitive reasons — particularly in the case of those who work for other news organizations. But many in the political polling field expect a rush of surveys to hit before the Fox deadline. A late-July surge could make all the difference.
“You’re going to see a bunch of polls released over that weekend and into Monday,” said Murray, the Monmouth pollster, “and those are the ones that are going to count.”