As of today the Electoral vote tally would be: Kerry 327, Bush 211

[DLR'sCock]

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[Warham]

Sure.

[Satan]

What exactly are you disputing? The map seems pretty self evident to me.

Of course it is also self evident that several of those states aren't firmly in one camp or the other, but it's a statistical fact that voters who are undecided late in an election often end up voting in favor of the challenger. After all, if the incumbent was doing a good job, they wouldn't have been undecided in the first place.

[knuckleboner]

well, kerry's predicted to win his home state, so it's already a start...:D

[John Ashcroft]

Not true according to this guy:

From a NY Times interview.

Bush Landslide (in Theory)!

Liberal Interviewer: As a professor of economics at Yale, you are known for creating an econometric equation that has predicted presidential elections with relative accuracy.

My latest prediction shows that Bush will receive 57.5 percent of the two-party votes.

Liberal Interviewer:The polls are suggesting a much closer race.

Polls are notoriously flaky this far ahead of the election, and there is a limit to how much you want to trust polls.

Liberal Interviewer:Why should we trust your equation, which seems unusually reductive?

This part's important, listen up liberals...

It has done well historically. The average mistake of the equation is about 2.5 percentage points.

Liberal Interviewer:In your book ''Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things,'' you claim that economic growth and inflation are the only variables that matter in a presidential race. Are you saying that the war in Iraq will have no influence on the election?

Historically, issues like war haven't swamped the economics. If the equation is correctly specified, then the chances that Bush loses are very small.

Liberal Interviewer:But the country hasn't been this polarized since the 60's, and voters seem genuinely engaged by social issues like gay marriage and the overall question of a more just society.

We throw all those into what we call the error term. In the past, all that stuff that you think should count averages about 2.5 percent, and that is pretty small.

And get this! Can you believe this is an "objective" interviewer???

Liberal Interviewer:It saddens me that you teach this to students at Yale, who could be thinking about society in complex and meaningful ways.

I will be teaching econometrics next year to undergraduates. Econometrics is a huge deal, because it is applied to all kinds of things.

Liberal Interviewer:Yes, I know one of your studies used the econometric method to predict who is most likely to have an extramarital affair.

In that case, the key economic question was whether high-wage people are more or less likely to engage in an affair. They are slightly more likely to have an affair. But the economic theory is ambiguous because if your wage is really high, that tends to make you work more, and that would cut down on how much time you want to spend in an affair.

Liberal Interviewer:Are you a Republican?

I can't credibly answer that question. Using game theory in economics, you are not going to believe me when I tell you my political affiliation because I know that you know that I could be behaving strategically. If I tell you I am a Kerry supporter, how do you know that I am not lying or behaving strategically to try to put more weight on the predictions and help the Republicans?

Liberal Interviewer:I don't want to do game theory. I just want to know if you are a Kerry supporter.

Backing away from game theory, which is kind of cute, I am a Kerry supporter.

Liberal Interviewer:I believe you entirely, although I'm a little surprised, because your predictions implicitly lend support to Bush.

I am not attempting to be an advocate for one party or another. I am attempting to be a social scientist trying to explain voting behavior.

Silly bitch is giving away press secrets here:

Liberal Interviewer:But in the process you are shaping opinion. Predictions can be self-confirming, because wishy-washy voters might go with the candidate who is perceived to be more successful.

It could work the other way. If Kerry supporters see that I have made this big prediction for Bush, more of them could turn out just to prove an economist wrong.

Liberal Interviewer:Perhaps you could create an equation that would calculate how important the forecasts of economists are.

There are so many polls and predictions, and I am not sure the net effect of any one of them is much.

Liberal Interviewer:Yes, everyone in America is a forecaster. We all think we know how things will turn out.

So in that case, no one has much influence, including me.

Link:
here (http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/15/magazine/15QUESTIONS.html)

[ODShowtime]

The real surprise comes when thousands if not millions of people come out of the woodworks and vote for the first time. No one can measure the boot in the ass Bush is gonna get in November until the imprint of the sole is visible. On his ass.

[knuckleboner]

Originally posted by John Ashcroft
From a NY Times interview.

This part's important, listen up liberals...

It has done well historically. The average mistake of the equation is about 2.5 percentage points.



well, i'm not going to say that it's COMPLETELY independent events, but the past performances don't really lend as much credence as if they were past predictors of the moon's orbit, or of the chance of hitting 00 in roulette.

these kind of votes, though, aren't quite as simplistic.

in any event, i'm happy to double-or-nothing our bet that bush does NOT win by 57.5% (+/- 2.5%) of the popular vote, including or excluding nader.

...wait, scratch that. if we split the double-or-nothing, then nobody wins. that's no good. but i'd make a completely seperate bet;)

[CyberDust6]

Come on, that electoral map is flawed.

First, in this map almost every state has a different polling company taking a sample. Every polling company has different ways of coming up with their samples and determining who they think is a likely voter.

Second, almost every state was polled over different periods of time. Some polls could have been taken when the news was favorable for Kerry and others for Bush.

Third, we have no way of knowing how many Republicans, Democrats, and independents were sampled in each sample. More republicans in one poll could taint the results in favor of Bush and visversa.

Fourth, my biggest problem with this map is the fact that in Florida if you add up kerry and nader 51% vs. 41% for Bush? As a person who lives in Florida, and follows Florida politics that just doesn't make sense. Every state wide elected office, with the exception of our two US senate seats, is held by Republicans, a majority of our state house and senate seats are held by Republicans, and a majority of our US House seats are held by Republicans. Plus in 2002 when Jeb Bush was up for re-election he defeated his Democratic opponent by 6%, and somehow now the democratic/liberal candidates have a 10% lead on Bush. It just does not add up. 5% I would believe, but not 10%.

Bottom line is the Republicans have not had their convention, and we have not had a single presidential debate yet. So this election is anybody's to grab, and no one can say for sure, as of now, thier candidate is going to win.

David Lee Roth for President!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[LoungeMachine]

Originally posted by CyberDust6
Come on, that electoral map is flawed.


Bottom line is the Republicans have not had their convention, and we have not had a single presidential debate yet. So this election is anybody's to grab, and no one can say for sure, as of now, thier candidate is going to win.

David Lee Roth for President!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You wouldnt call it flawed if it had shown the Shrub in a landslide I bet.

The debates?

You hope to pull ahead on the debates!?!

I can't WAIT for the debates. Hot lights, no prepared speech written for him, forced to conjure up MULTI syllabic words?

Bush/Cheney SHOULD be leading by double digits.

Just keep praying for Nader, he's your ONLY chance at victory

[FORD]

Originally posted by CyberDust6


Fourth, my biggest problem with this map is the fact that in Florida if you add up kerry and nader 51% vs. 41% for Bush? As a person who lives in Florida, and follows Florida politics that just doesn't make sense. Every state wide elected office, with the exception of our two US senate seats, is held by Republicans, a majority of our state house and senate seats are held by Republicans, and a majority of our US House seats are held by Republicans. Plus in 2002 when Jeb Bush was up for re-election he defeated his Democratic opponent by 6%, and somehow now the democratic/liberal candidates have a 10% lead on Bush. It just does not add up. 5% I would believe, but not 10%.



Well, since you live in Florida, you are also no doubt aware of how Jeb, Kate and Teresa LeWhore corrupted the 2000 election and how they used electro-fraud to corrupt 2002 where Jeb's opponent easily had 5 points on him in election day exit polls.

No offense to you, but Florida's not a reliable example to prove the electoral map wrong.

[CyberDust6]

Originally posted by LoungeMachine
You wouldnt call it flawed if it had shown the Shrub in a landslide I bet.

The debates?

You hope to pull ahead on the debates!?!

I can't WAIT for the debates. Hot lights, no prepared speech written for him, forced to conjure up MULTI syllabic words?

Bush/Cheney SHOULD be leading by double digits.

Just keep praying for Nader, he's your ONLY chance at victory

I would say the same thing if Bush was leading, just like John Kerry has said the entire time the polls are flawed. I don't believe them because of how easy they are to taint the sample, as how I illustrated in my first three points.

How could you debate the effectivness of the presidential debates swinging voters in one direction or another?

Maybe when John Keryy is on stage he'll actually tell us some of his plans as to how he proposes to cover everyone with Health Care and bring more allies into Iraq. Instead of just giving us goals like cutting waste and improving efficiency, and saying he is going to bring more allies in. I can't wait untill he tells us how he plans to do all of these things.

[LoungeMachine]

Regardless, the BCE has shown the world that the electoral college is a sham anyway.

I never said the debates would swing voters. I said I COULDN'T WAIT to watch the Shrub make an IDIOT of himself.

And let's be honest, REGARDLESS of what John says in the debate[s], you will not be swayed.

He could declare that upon taking office he would broker a deal between EVH/DLR for a free club tour open to all Army members and you'd still vote for the Shrub.

Bush is a dolt. a dangerous fool run by puppetmasters and his own inner demons. HE THINKS GOD TALKS TO HIM.

Maybe God told him to eat the pretzels.....hmmmmm

[CyberDust6]

Originally posted by FORD
Well, since you live in Florida, you are also no doubt aware of how Jeb, Kate and Teresa LeWhore corrupted the 2000 election and how they used electro-fraud to corrupt 2002 where Jeb's opponent easily had 5 points on him in election day exit polls.

No offense to you, but Florida's not a reliable example to prove the electoral map wrong.

First off if you believe that Bush stole the FL election, then I will probably never be able to convince you that he didn't. However, I can get the USA Today, Miami Herald, and the Knight Rider Newspaper, which all studied the ballots after the 2000 election and showed that even under the most lenient standards of accepting ballots, Bush still won. Here is the link to prove it:

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2001-02-25-recount.htm

Second, your electro-fraud charge has no factual support anywhere. Jeb Bush won the election 56%-43%. So are you trying to tell me that Gov. Bush stole 13% of the Florida vote? Show me one article from a credible newspaper that backs up your charge, and not some op-ed article. I can't wait to see it.

I also have an article here from Time Magazine about how efficient the 2002 voting process was: "Meanwhile, the state, which as recently as the botched September primary races looked as though it still couldn't vote and chew gum at the same time, finally pulled off an election without a hitch. So efficient and smooth was the voting that within an hour of the polls closing, enough precincts had been counted to call Bush's landslide victory."

Check the quote here in the last two sentences of the second paragraph:

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,387688,00.html

Third, what exit polls showed Mcbride up by five points? I have a poll here taken right before the election showing Bush winning by five:

http://www.surveyusa.com/2002Elec.html

Finally, to put the final nail into your coffin, the Voter News Service, who does the exit polling for all the major newspapers and networks, did not produce any exit polls for the 2002 Florida governors’ race. So I don’t know where you pulled that 5% number from because there is no information anywhere to back it up, since there were no exit polls.

Check CNN if you don’t believe me:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2002/data/epolls/states/FL/G/00/epolls.html

As much as you hate President Bush, if you are going to question his legitimacy as President, and his brother as governor, then you should at least have some facts to back you up other than numbers you made up and your “they stole the election” conspiracy theories. I think you have been watching a few too many Michael Moore films. Within a few minutes of searching Google I was able to pull up all the articles, which refuted everything you said. Can’t wait to see your response.

I’m your ice-cream man, stop me when I’m passing by!

[CyberDust6]

Originally posted by LoungeMachine
Regardless, the BCE has shown the world that the electoral college is a sham anyway.

And let's be honest, REGARDLESS of what John says in the debate[s], you will not be swayed.



I don't know who the BCE is, and I don't care what they think about the electoral college. The founders set up the electoral college so Presidential candidates had to campaign in small states as well as big ones, because as the 2000 election showed us, regardless of your feelings about it, states like New Mexico, Rhode Island, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Arkansas all made a difference. If we switched over to a popular vote system, then the candidates would mostly ignore small states like those, and spend most of their time trying to sway big states like California, Texas, Florida, and New York.

You are right in one respect though, there is nothing John Kerry could say to sway me to vote for him. However, I am not one of the 8-10% of the electorate who is undecided. . At the same time however, since to me as of this point there is a 50% chance Kerry will become President, I don't think it is asking too much for him to actually tell the American public the steps he plans to take to carry out and finance a lot of the ideas he has proposed, other than the nice goals he has given us of creating 10 million jobs in 4 years, and free healthcare for everyone.

[DLR'sCock]

update as of August 24: Kerry 307, Bush 211


http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[fanofdave]

those polls and pretty little colored states maps
don't mean shit to us republicans. we'll just steal
the election from underneath your whiny wimpy
asses just like we did four years ago. your party
doesn't have the balls to play like we do.
have a day, losers.

[Warham]

If I remember right, Al Gore was also heavily favored on these electoral maps before the 2000 election. Didn't work out so well, did it?

[DLR'sCock]

Originally posted by fanofdave
those polls and pretty little colored states maps
don't mean shit to us republicans. we'll just steal
the election from underneath your whiny wimpy
asses just like we did four years ago. your party
doesn't have the balls to play like we do.
have a day, losers.

If you attempt to steal, you will be shot on site.

[BigBadBrian]

Originally posted by DLR'sCock
If you attempt to steal, you will be shot on site.


You don't have any guns. :gun: :killer: :bottle:

[Wayne L.]

I predict that Bush WILL win against Kerry by 4 or 5 points in November because of national security, the war on terror after 9/11 & John Kerry not being honest about his Vietnam War activities during those 4 months which is catching up with him in the polls along with his anti-war activities after Vietnam, way too much Bush bashing from the far left groups like MoveOn.Org, this LUDICRIOUS Vote For Change tour with Springsteen, Mellencamp & Fogarty which will give George W. Bush a decisive victory.

[DLR'sCock]

Originally posted by BigBadBrian
You don't have any guns. :gun: :killer: :bottle:


yeah, uhhh....you're right we don't have any guns, nope...so come on in and steal away....

[DLR'sCock]

As of 8/26 Kerry 280, Bush 238


http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[DLR'sCock]

As of 9/8, Kerry 264 Bush 222


http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[JCOOK]

I thouhgt you libs hated the electorial college?

[FORD]

Originally posted by JCOOK
I thouhgt you libs hated the electorial college?

Some of us do, and with good reason. But while it still exists, you might as well pay attention to the numbers.

Although it's practically impossible, wouldn't be ironic if Junior led the popular vote and Kerry won the electoral.

Would FAUX News scream that Electoral Votes don't count?

Would the 5 BCE appointees on the Supreme Court reverse their own blatantly illegal decision of 4 years ago?

Exactly how far would the BCE go, even if it involved a complete reversal of every thing they said in Florida? ;)

[Warham]

No, Republicans wouldn't whine like the Democrats would. We are fair losers...if and when we lose.

Kerry's campaign managers are already lining up the lawyers for the recounts already.

[knuckleboner]

eh...i'm not a fan of the electoral college. to me, it discourages campaigning in states you know you're going to lose.

why should bush spend any appreciable time in vermont? so he can decrease his loss by 4% points? he'll still get clearly beaten. (ditto kerry in montana.)

but, if the popular vote counted, then extra time in those states would matter. who cares if you lose the state? you're still trying to appeal to indivdual people.

hell, the electoral college is titled towards the urban areas, anyways (though, admittingly, not to as great an extent as the popular vote).

ditch it, i say.

[ELVIS]

Originally posted by Warham
No, Republicans wouldn't whine like the Democrats would.


Thank you Warham...


:elvis:

[ELVIS]

Originally posted by FORD

Although it's practically impossible, wouldn't be ironic if Junior led the popular vote and Kerry won the electoral.

I suppose there would be some irony in that scenario...

Would FAUX News scream that Electoral Votes don't count?

No...

Would the 5 BCE appointees on the Supreme Court reverse their own blatantly illegal decision of 4 years ago?

No...

Exactly how far would the BCE go, even if it involved a complete reversal of every thing they said in Florida?

There is no "BCE", so your hypothetical bullshit question has no merit...



Haha!


:elvis:

[DLR'sCock]

As of today 9/12/04

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 273 Bush 233



http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[Lincoln]

Rasmussen has it 213 Bush, 175 Kerry.

9-12-04

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/

[wraytw]

Since you put so much weight into this little poll, Cock, maybe you can recite the reults for us again.... nah, Ill do it for you. :D

Bush: 291 Kerry: 238

[freak]

I can remember Michael Dukakis having a monsterous lead too.

The polls showing Kerry ahead are as worthless as the polls showing Bush ahead.

We'll know more in November.

If the Democratic trial lawyers start setting up shop, we'll know they lost. :)

[FORD]

Originally posted by freak
I can remember Michael Dukakis having a monsterous lead too.

The polls showing Kerry ahead are as worthless as the polls showing Bush ahead.

We'll know more in November.

If the Democratic trial lawyers start setting up shop, we'll know they lost. :)

And where's James Baker at these days?

[freak]

Originally posted by FORD
And where's James Baker at these days?

Probably rooming with Mike and Kitty :D

[wraytw]

How come you're not updating this thread anymore, Cock? :D

[ELVIS]

Because his heart's not really in it...

[Warham]

Well, my heart is!

As of 9/19

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 211 Bush 327

[Warham]

If Bush wins Ohio, Pennsyvania, and Florida, it's all over. Even if Kerry wins California and New York, he's toast.

[ELVIS]

Ohio and Pennsylvania are in the bag...:)

[Warham]

Also a shocker, Bush leads in NEW JERSEY!

:D

[Igosplut]

Originally posted by knuckleboner
well, kerry's predicted to win his home state, so it's already a start...:D

Of course...Anything to get him out of Mass.

[BigBadBrian]

Gee, I wonder what it looks like today. ;)


Electoral College predictor (http://www.electoral-vote.com/)

[lucky wilbury]

Originally posted by Igosplut
Of course...Anything to get him out of Mass.

maybe he'll go windsurfing again and that huge great white will get him

[FORD]

So where have you been, Agent Zimmerman?

Did the agency recruit you to help set up "October Surprise"?

[lucky wilbury]

you know here. there. i wonder what that "october surprise"' will be. i got a guess how bout you

[DLR'sCock]

As of today 10/10/04



Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 270 Bush 248



http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[DLR'sCock]

As of today 10/11/04



Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 280 Bush 254

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[wraytw]

LMAO!!!!!!

[DLR'sCock]

As of today 10/18/04

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 257 Bush 247


http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[Warham]

Hey Cock,

How come you only post when Kerry's ahead on that site?

[Cathedral]

Next stop, The European Union and the "Global Test" scorecard.
If Kerry wins it will be the end of life as we know it, and in record time.

People, we need someone better than Bush to take the reigns, Kerry ain't him.

Don't be a tart, vote smart. Hatred is no way to pick the ruler of the free world.

[FORD]

10/19 Kerry 284 Bush 247

[LoungeMachine]

Originally posted by Cathedral
Next stop, The European Union and the "Global Test" scorecard.
If Kerry wins it will be the end of life as we know it, and in record time.

People, we need someone better than Bush to take the reigns, Kerry ain't him.

Don't be a tart, vote smart. Hatred is no way to pick the ruler of the free world.

Actually hatred is EXACTLY why I'm voting for JFK

He may not be the "one", but he sure as hell beats the cast of idiots we have now!

fuck the shrub

[ODShowtime]

you need to post more LM

[DLR'sCock]

Originally posted by Warham
Hey Cock,

How come you only post when Kerry's ahead on that site?


You may continue to post for Dumya all you want...

[DLR'sCock]

http://www.electoral-vote.com/


Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 284 Bush 247

[DLR'sCock]

As of 10/21/04


Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 271 Bush 257

[BigBadBrian]

Originally posted by DLR'sCock
As of 10/21/04


Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 271 Bush 257


A counterpoint:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2004/president/electoratemap1019.gif

Bush 284

Kerry 254

© Copyright 2004 Larry J. Sabato and the University of Virginia Center for Politics

[Warham]

If Bush wins Wisconsin, Ohio and Florida, it doesn't matter what Kerry does. He's going to lose.

[BigBadBrian]

http://www.electoral-vote.com/oct/oct26.png

Kerry 247

Bush 285

[FORD]

Be it known that as of 6:50 PM Pacific Standard Time on the date of Rothtober 26 in the year of our Lord 2004, I do hereby predict the following electoral results in next week's election....

[FORD]

BTW, I only gave Florida to the BCE, because it's obvious with half a dozen different frauds taking place already, it's obvious that Jeb will stop at nothing to fix it for his dumbass brother.

[DrMaddVibe]

Thanks for the laugh!

[FORD]

So what's your guess, AssVibe?

[Warham]

Here is my map:

[DLR'sCock]

As of Monday Nov. 1st....


Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 298 Bush 231


http://www.electoral-vote.com/nov/nov01.png

[Nickdfresh]

Originally posted by FORD
BTW, I only gave Florida to the BCE, because it's obvious with half a dozen different frauds taking place already, it's obvious that Jeb will stop at nothing to fix it for his dumbass brother.

Actually I heard on CNN this morning that with 7% of the Flordia vote in, Kerry is ahead in early voting despite the Republican's best "keep out the vote" efforts.

[Warham]

That voting is from Dade County apparently.

They haven't gotten up to the Republican-heavy panhandle to count the massive amounts of votes up there for Bush.

:D

[Nickdfresh]

This thread should be on page 1!

[HELLVIS]

Originally posted by DLR'sCock
http://www.electoral-vote.com/


BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH!!!!!!!!!