Originally Posted by
binnie
Pavlik-Martinez should be a good scrap.
I've watched Williams-Martinez six times now, and every time I score it differently. I am not at all convinced that Williams won that fight, and I think that Martinez has been unlucky in the past (like the 'draw' against Cintron - laughable.)
That being said, Martinez doesn't have the same calibre of opponents on his resume that Pavlik does (Williams aside.) Some would argue that's a big factor in calling this fight, but I'm not so sure. Martinez may be behind in experience, but I'd say he's ahead in momentum - the fight with Williams will have been invigorating, despite the defeat, and Pavlik has generally looked like dogshit since Bhop made him look like a glorified journeyman. Martinez is no Bhop, but he's not a come forward in straight lines slugger that Kelly likes, either. I expect Martinez to cause Kelly some problems, but I doubt he'll have the power to seriosuly hurt Pavlik. The question of how he takes Pavlik's shots is more interesting - Kelly is a heavy handed middleweight, and Martinez has campaigned for most of his fights at 154. This could be decisive.
At the moment, however, I'm leaning towards Martinez is a close fight, maybe a SD. I don't think that Kelly's re-gained any of the momentum he lost with Bhop, and I think that Martinez's speed and evasive footwork will be enough to prevent the bigger man being able to use his power for any consistent length of time. I stress that's an initial consideration - it might change as I (force myself) to re-watch Kelly's last two fights....