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Bush Ahead Of Kerry In Florida, Poll Shows

Oct 8, 2004




TALLAHASSEE - Floridians view Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry more favorably, but that does not mean he has won them over.
A poll released Thursday by Quinnipiac University of Connecticut shows President Bush hanging on to a 7-point lead in Florida over Kerry, a U.S. senator from Massachusetts, even though the challenger enjoyed a popularity boost after last week's debate in Miami.

The survey showed 51 percent of Florida voters supporting Bush, compared with 44 percent backing Kerry.

Those numbers are a departure from other recent surveys, including a Mason-Dixon poll conducted for The Tampa Tribune, which showed the race in a statistical tie.

The Quinnipiac poll surveyed 1,083 registered voters by phone from Oct. 1 to Tuesday. It has a 3.0-percentage point error margin for figures representing all registered voters surveyed, and a 3.7-point error margin among likely voters.

Clay E. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac poll, said the Bush support is ominous for Kerry's chances of winning Florida's 27 electoral votes, despite his recent national surge after last week's debate.

``There is going to be a very small number of people who change their minds between now and the election,'' Richards said.

More than 90 percent of supporters for both candidates said there is no possibility that their vote will change.

For Kerry, that means that an improvement of his approval rating - from 34 percent in late September to 36 percent now - and a decline in his disapproval rating - from 41 percent to 35 percent now - has failed to move likely votes in his direction.

Among other findings of this week's poll:

* 51 percent of likely voters said Bush would do a better job on terrorism, compared with 39 percent for Kerry.

* 48 percent of likely voters said Kerry would do a better job on the economy, compared with 42 percent for Bush.

* 48 percent of likely voters said Bush would do a better job handling the situation in Iraq, compared with 43 percent for Kerry.

* 53 percent of likely voters said Kerry would do a better job on health care, compared with 35 percent for Bush.