Results 1 to 4 of 4

Thread: The 'Real' Jobless Rate: 17.5% Of Workers Are Unemployed

  1. #1
    Bring on the Girls!
    Head Fluffer
    Fuct Jup's Avatar
    Member No
    21959
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Last Online
    08-21-2017 @ 06:47 AM
    Location
    Out the window, across the lawn
    Posts
    236
    Status
    Offline
    Thanks
    9
    Thanked 13 Times in 10 Posts


    Rep Power
    13

    The 'Real' Jobless Rate: 17.5% Of Workers Are Unemployed

    As experts debate the potential speed of the US recovery, one figure looms large but is often overlooked: nearly 1 in 5 Americans is either out of work or under-employed.

    According to the government's broadest measure of unemployment, some 17.5percent are either without a job entirely or underemployed. The so-called U-6 number is at the highest rate since becoming an official labor statistic in 199.

    The number dwarfs the statistic most people pay attention to—the U-3 rate—which most recently showed unemployment at 10.2 percent for October, the highest it has been since June 1983.

    The difference is that what is traditionally referred to as the "unemployment rate" only measures those out of work who are still looking for jobs. Discouraged workers who have quit trying to find a job, as well as those working part-time but looking for full-time work or who are otherwise underemployed, count in the U-6 rate.

    With such a large portion of Americans experiencing employment struggles, economists worry that an extended period of slow or flat growth lies ahead.

    "To me there's no easy solution here," says Michael Pento, chief economist at Delta Global Advisors. "Unless you create another bubble in which the economy can create jobs, then you're not going to have growth. That's the sad truth."


    Pento warns that forecasts of a double-dip ("W") or a straight up ("V") recovery both could be too optimistic given the jobs situation.

    Instead, he believes the economy could flatline (or "L") for an extended period as small businesses struggle to grow and consequently rehire the workers that have been furloughed as the U-3 unemployment rate has doubled since March 2008.

    As that trend has happened, the U-6 rate has expanded at an even more dramatic pace. Economists cite several reasons for the phenomenon.

    For one, more workers are becoming discouraged as real estate—the focal point for the expansion in the earlier part of the decade—has collapsed and taken millions of directly related and ancillary jobs with it.


    Many workers believe those jobs aren't coming back, and have thus quit looking and added themselves to the broader unemployment count.

    "In the earlier part of this decade, 40 percent of all new jobs created were in real estate. Attorneys, mortgage brokers, agents, construction—they were all circled around housing," Pento says. "We've had a jobless recovery in the last two recessions. This is going to be the third jobless recovery in a row."

    Another factor that may be leading people onto the rolls of those no longer looking for jobs is the government's accommodative extensions of jobless benefits.

    "Workers are unemployed for a much longer span than we've seen historically," says David Resler, chief economist at Nomura Securities International in New York. "Part of that may be affected by the longer availability of benefits. It reduces the incentives for an urgent job search."


    The U-6 rate debuted in January of 1994 at 11.8 percent, while the U-3 was at 6.6 percent. The measure hit a low of 6.9 percent in April 2000 while U-3 sat at 3.8 percent.

    While the current methodology only dates back 15 years, a former U-6 gauge was in existence previously and peaked at 14.3 percent in 1982. Economists predict the current measure would fall just below that number using the same methodology.

    "We're in the process of discovering how severe this recession and the long-run impact on certain industries will be and what that will do to overall employment," Resler says. The U-6 rate "portends a very slow, sluggish recovery."

    If that holds and the US economy stays weak, that presents challenges for investors.

    "People focus too much on that 10 percent number and not on the larger number," says Kevin Mahn, chief investment officer at Hennion & Walsh in Parsippany, N.J. "There's a humongous inventory of people out there looking for work and have been looking for work for a long time. Where are those jobs going to come from?"


    High unemployment and the resulting pressure on consumers is driving many investors to look for opportunities overseas and in other assets.

    Walsh says that trend is going to continue, with clients going to foreign markets, real estate investment trusts, certain bonds—anywhere that can offer profits above the slow-growth mire of US-based investments.

    "If full employment is 4 percent, people are wondering how we're going to get from 10 (percent) to 4. Well, try getting from 17 to 4. We may not get back to full employment for a decade," Mahn says. "As an investor, that causes me to look for different places now. Maybe you can't just put money in US large caps and ride out this recovery."


    The 'Real' Jobless Rate: 17.5% of Workers are Unemployed - Economy * US * News * Story - CNBC.com
    Hey Jackass! You need to [Register] or log in to view signatures on ROTHARMY.COM!

  2. #2
    Hindsight is 2020
    ROTH ARMY MODERATOR

    FORD's Avatar
    Member No
    32
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Last Online
    Today @ 10:17 AM
    Location
    Cascadia
    Posts
    53,695
    Status
    Online
    Thanks
    3,152
    Thanked 5,801 Times in 4,315 Posts


    Rep Power
    129
    Thanks Obama?

    How fucking stupid are you? This is all due to Chimpy's destruction of the economy.

    Just like the fucked up shit that happened in 1933 wasn't FDR's fault, it was already in progress from Herbert Hoover's corporatism, which was terrible for the times, but he had nothing on the BCE (aside from some of the same friends on Wall Street)

    Of course Obama has not responded to this the way that FDR did, and that (sadly) is a problem. But the fact remains he did not create the situation.
    Hey Jackass! You need to [Register] or log in to view signatures on ROTHARMY.COM!

  3. 2 users say thank you to FORD for this KICKASS post:

    jhale667 (11-23-2009),LoungeMachine (11-23-2009)


  4. #3
    We Are All F A T Barb
    DIAMOND STATUS
    Kristy's Avatar
    Member No
    7609
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
    Last Online
    Yesterday @ 10:30 PM
    Location
    Denver, Colo
    Posts
    14,035
    Status
    Offline
    Thanks
    1,579
    Thanked 2,403 Times in 1,779 Posts


    Rep Power
    53
    Quote Originally Posted by Fuct Jup View Post
    "In the earlier part of this decade, 40 percent of all new jobs created were in real estate. Attorneys, mortgage brokers, agents, construction—they were all circled around housing," Pento says. "We've had a jobless recovery in the last two recessions. This is going to be the third jobless recovery in a row."

    So let me get this straight: It's real estate that is the true culprit of an estimated 40% of all job losses? And when the vultures er, attorneys, mortgage brokers, etc could no longer exploit the market for their own personal gain that automatically makes the government responsible?

    As for the term "jobless recovery" can someone explain this oxymoron to me? No, forget it. I don't want to know.
    Hey Jackass! You need to [Register] or log in to view signatures on ROTHARMY.COM!

  5. #4
    We Are All F A T Barb
    DIAMOND STATUS
    Kristy's Avatar
    Member No
    7609
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
    Last Online
    Yesterday @ 10:30 PM
    Location
    Denver, Colo
    Posts
    14,035
    Status
    Offline
    Thanks
    1,579
    Thanked 2,403 Times in 1,779 Posts


    Rep Power
    53
    <object width="480" height="430"><param name="allowfullscreen" value="true" /><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always" /><param name="movie" value="http://www.theonion.com/content/themes/common/assets/onn_embed/embedded_player.swf?image=http&#37;3A%2F%2Fwww.the onion.com%2Fcontent%2Ffiles%2Fimages%2FOBAMA_PERFO RMANCE_article.jpg&videoid=95981&title=Obama%20To% 20Hold%20Job%20Performance%20Review%20With%20Every %20American%20Worker" /><param name="wmode" value="transparent" /><embed src="http://www.theonion.com/content/themes/common/assets/onn_embed/embedded_player.swf"type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowScriptAccess="always" allowFullScreen="true" wmode="transparent" width="480" height="430"flashvars="image=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.theo nion.com%2Fcontent%2Ffiles%2Fimages%2FOBAMA_PERFOR MANCE_article.jpg&videoid=95981&title=Obama%20To%2 0Hold%20Job%20Performance%20Review%20With%20Every% 20American%20Worker"></embed></object><br /><a href="http://www.theonion.com/content/video/obama_to_hold_job_performance?utm_source=videoembe d">Obama To Hold Job Performance Review With Every American Worker</a>

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Similar Threads

  1. Dangerous Workers
    By samraJ in forum Max's Non VH/DLR Related Stuff
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 07-17-2007, 05:35 PM
  2. German jobless rate at new record
    By BigBadBrian in forum The Front Line
    Replies: 51
    Last Post: 03-02-2005, 11:35 AM
  3. The European Model: First-rate posturing, third-rate policy
    By BigBadBrian in forum The Front Line
    Replies: 9
    Last Post: 12-15-2004, 08:57 PM
  4. Jobless Claims Decline Sharply Last Week
    By Lqskdiver in forum The Front Line
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 10-12-2004, 11:24 PM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •