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Thread: How a solar storm two years ago nearly caused a catastrophe on Earth

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    How a solar storm two years ago nearly caused a catastrophe on Earth

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...two-years-ago/

    How a solar storm two years ago nearly caused a catastrophe on Earth
    BY JASON SAMENOW

    On July 23, 2012, the sun unleashed two massive clouds of plasma that barely missed a catastrophic encounter with the Earth’s atmosphere. These plasma clouds, known as coronal mass ejections (CMEs), comprised a solar storm thought to be the most powerful in at least 150 years.

    “If it had hit, we would still be picking up the pieces,” physicist Daniel Baker of the University of Colorado tells NASA.

    Fortunately, the blast site of the CMEs was not directed at Earth. Had this event occurred a week earlier when the point of eruption was Earth-facing, a potentially disastrous outcome would have unfolded.




    “I have come away from our recent studies more convinced than ever that Earth and its inhabitants were incredibly fortunate that the 2012 eruption happened when it did,” Baker tells NASA. “If the eruption had occurred only one week earlier, Earth would have been in the line of fire.”

    A CME double whammy of this potency striking Earth would likely cripple satellite communications and could severely damage the power grid. NASA offers this sobering assessment:

    Analysts believe that a direct hit … could cause widespread power blackouts, disabling everything that plugs into a wall socket. Most people wouldn’t even be able to flush their toilet because urban water supplies largely rely on electric pumps.
    . . .

    According to a study by the National Academy of Sciences, the total economic impact could exceed $2 trillion or 20 times greater than the costs of a Hurricane Katrina. Multi-ton transformers damaged by such a storm might take years to repair.
    CWG’s Steve Tracton put it this way in his frightening overview of the risks of a severe solar storm: “The consequences could be devastating for commerce, transportation, agriculture and food stocks, fuel and water supplies, human health and medical facilities, national security, and daily life in general.”
    Solar physicists compare the 2012 storm to the so-called Carrington solar storm of September 1859, named after English astronomer Richard Carrington who documented the event.

    “In my view the July 2012 storm was in all respects at least as strong as the 1859 Carrington event,” Baker tells NASA. “The only difference is, it missed.”

    During the Carrington event, the northern lights were seen as far south as Cuba and Hawaii according to historical accounts. The solar eruption “caused global telegraph lines to spark, setting fire to some telegraph offices,” NASA notes.
    NASA says the July 2012 storm was particularly intense because a CME had traveled along the same path just days before the July 23 double whammy – clearing the way for maximum effect, like a snowplow.

    “This double-CME traveled through a region of space that had been cleared out by yet another CME four days earlier,” NASA says. ” As a result, the storm clouds were not decelerated as much as usual by their transit through the interplanetary medium.”

    NASA’s online article about the science of this solar storm is well-worth the read. Perhaps the scariest finding reported in the article is this: There is a 12 percent chance of a Carrington-type event on Earth in the next 10 years according to Pete Riley of Predictive Science Inc.

    “Initially, I was quite surprised that the odds were so high, but the statistics appear to be correct,” Riley tells NASA. “It is a sobering figure.”

    It’s even more sobering when considering the conclusion of Steve Tracton’s 2013 article: Are we ready yet for potentially disastrous impacts of space weather? Tracton’s answer: “an unequivocal, if not surprising, no!”
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    Yep. Google the 'Carrington Event' for more interesting reading about Sun Farts.

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    There is some pretty scary stuff once you dig into this.

    Eg. if all our big step down transformers got melted it could take 10 years to replace them

    A 12% chance of getting totally fucked every decade and no one seems to be trying to do some planning like having a warning system that shut down the grid just before it hit.

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    We've included such events in our disaster recovery planning where I work... it's not pretty. In the worst case scenarios with a near or total collapse of the power grid... it would leave us essentially with the equivalent power resources we had in the late 1800's/early 1900's. In order to repair or rebuild the grid would be a daunting task without the power resources to manufacture and transport the new equipment...
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    Not to mention the implications of the whole freaking Internet/global comms going down for any length of time.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ZahZoo View Post
    We've included such events in our disaster recovery planning where I work... it's not pretty. In the worst case scenarios with a near or total collapse of the power grid... it would leave us essentially with the equivalent power resources we had in the late 1800's/early 1900's. In order to repair or rebuild the grid would be a daunting task without the power resources to manufacture and transport the new equipment...
    We had to move a large transformer at a substation one time. It had shorted out and we had to haul it to a company that rewound them. It takes days to move just one. You have to jack it up on hydraulic jacks. You have to build a trestle out of rail road ties to the truck trailer it's going to be hauled on. You put 1 inch thick steel plates on the ties and pour motor oil on the plates. Then you winch the transformer to the trailer. Once we got it loaded up and secured it was so heavy the truck couldn't get traction on the gravel in the substation and luckily there was a front end loader to pull us out of there.

    That was in a nice open substation on flat ground. I see some of these transformers in horrible locations and sometimes wonder how they ever would get it out if it shorted out. Yeah it would take years to replace all of them and it would be a bigger job than anyone could imagine.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seshmeister View Post
    There is some pretty scary stuff once you dig into this.

    Eg. if all our big step down transformers got melted it could take 10 years to replace them

    A 12% chance of getting totally fucked every decade and no one seems to be trying to do some planning like having a warning system that shut down the grid just before it hit.
    Shutting down the grid would cost everyone a lot of money. Nobody wants to be responsible. Simple as that.

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    It would be very easy to take anyones grid down with an EMP attack as well. It would have a similar result. Most the cars on the road wouldn't run either because the computers would be fried.
    Last edited by Nitro Express; 08-17-2014 at 10:56 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ZahZoo View Post
    We've included such events in our disaster recovery planning where I work... it's not pretty. In the worst case scenarios with a near or total collapse of the power grid... it would leave us essentially with the equivalent power resources we had in the late 1800's/early 1900's. In order to repair or rebuild the grid would be a daunting task without the power resources to manufacture and transport the new equipment...
    I don't know where you work but years ago I would be in disaster planning meetings where I've been thinking if the disaster was at that level no one including me would give a flying fuck about your organisation never mind this system.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ashstralia View Post
    Not to mention the implications of the whole freaking Internet/global comms going down for any length of time.
    Bye bye global banking system. 90% of all money is electronic. The modern world would disappear. The cities would become hell zones and then people would be forced to leave the cities to scrounge for food and water. If it hit in the middle of winter it would be a double bitch if you lived where it was cold.

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    There is also every chance that this website could go down.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Seshmeister View Post
    There is also every chance that this website could go down.
    Yeah but the water still flows, the refrigerators still work, and shitter still flushes if it does.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nitro Express View Post
    Bye bye global banking system. 90% of all money is electronic. The modern world would disappear. The cities would become hell zones...
    Almost like the last week in Ferguson, Missouri.
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    Quote Originally Posted by twonabomber View Post
    Almost like the last week in Ferguson, Missouri.
    The thing is those communities need to get their bad eggs under control. The authorities are just itching for an excuse to crack down. If you loot, riot, and attack the police they have their excuse and don't think the Feds aren't itching for an excuse to come in. I think the community needs to avoid giving the authorities any excuse and file a civil rights violation. Occupy Wall Street failed because they got infiltrated with trouble makers and that gave the police their excuse.

    Look at the laws that have been passed in Washington. They are expecting and hoping for some trouble. I think selling all this military equipment to the police departments is to embolden the police and agitate the public. We saw the result in Ferguson.

    The electrical grid going down for years would be a far worse disaster. It would make Ferguson look like milk and cookies at kindergarten.

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    From what I read, the troublemakers are not Ferguson residents. Which would happen in a grid going down scenario also. Pick one town clean and move on...

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    Quote Originally Posted by ashstralia View Post
    Yep. Google the 'Carrington Event' for more interesting reading about Sun Farts.

    Rather, I Googled "Kangaroo Humping" and got bizarre Nicole Kidman porn.
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    Kangaroo humping is pretty interesting.

    Did you know kangaroo's have three vaginas?


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    Quote Originally Posted by twonabomber View Post
    From what I read, the troublemakers are not Ferguson residents. Which would happen in a grid going down scenario also. Pick one town clean and move on...


    Until they run into the guns.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Seshmeister View Post
    I don't know where you work but years ago I would be in disaster planning meetings where I've been thinking if the disaster was at that level no one including me would give a flying fuck about your organisation never mind this system.
    Of course not! My organization would be like this:

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    Quote Originally Posted by Seshmeister View Post
    I don't know where you work but years ago I would be in disaster planning meetings where I've been thinking if the disaster was at that level no one including me would give a flying fuck about your organisation never mind this system.
    Oh you're right... if we get hit at that level, basic survival will be the only priority until or if... rudimentary services like power and communication get restored.

    Where I work we manage some of the largest IT infrastructure globally for most of the largest financial, communications and internet businesses. While we've built in redundancy and backup for power, cooling and communications... we can only operate for maybe a week if the primary power grid was taken out. But if it's a solar flare incident most of that backup would be taken out as well.

    As you say we'd all be fucked and business won't matter.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Seshmeister View Post
    Kangaroo humping is pretty interesting.

    Did you know kangaroo's have three vaginas?

    Don't tell Von or Donnie...
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    Donnie won't know for some time. Today is Sunday - his alter superhero ego 'Rim Job Man' day. He'll be at his local Walmart until sundown.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Angel View Post
    Don't tell Von or Donnie...
    Hmm...wait a minute...They have three vaginas but only one cooch? Well so much for my trip Down Under...
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