Trump Most Unpopular Incoming President Ever

[Seshmeister]

Absent a terror attack on the continental US or another recession, I wouldn't rule out Trump winning a second term.

A terror attack on the continental US could guarantee his second term - look at GW's approval ratings.

[Nitro Express]

A terror attack on the continental US could guarantee his second term - look at GW's approval ratings.

Most presidents win a second term because it's hard to beat an incumbent. The way you lose a second term is to fail to deliver on your key campaign promises if the Democrat candidate isn't a radical lefty. The next person the Democrats run is going to be a real left wing radical. Even if Trump turns out to be a dud the base will still vote against the Democrat.

[Terry]

A terror attack on the continental US could guarantee his second term - look at GW's approval ratings.

I think a lot of that had to do with a vast majority of Americans in the aftermath of 9/11 WANTING a President who would lead them, and to his credit GW rose to the moment in the months after 9/11 in terms of presenting a strong, serious image and a strong, serious image as to what the nation's response would be.

2004 wasn't exactly a blowout for W. All it would have taken was Ohio or Florida to have went for Kerry and [Kerry] would have won. Considering Kerry was effectively portrayed as a stereotypical Massachusetts quiche-eating, windsurfing tax-and-spend liberal by the Bush campaign (to which Kerry supplied plenty of ammunition), Kerry got pretty close. Then again, in terms of a whole host of policies, there really wasn't much daylight between W and Kerry in the end.

So, I'm not really sure a terror attack in this administration would prove as analogous for Trump in 2020 as it did for W in 2004. Number one, in 2004 the notion of a terror attack within the continental US on the scale of 9/11 was still fresh territory in the minds of many. Uncharted waters, if you will. In 2016, Trump repeatedly went out and claimed that Hillary Clinton - who had been fighting ISIS "her entire adult life(?!)" - would prove incompetent in defending America from a terrorist attack, whereas Trump was going to wipe ISIS and radical Islamic terrorism off of the face of the Earth. It was a centerpiece of his campaign, blatantly stated with no equivocation.

Another terror attack on the scale of 9/11, particularly if it came close to the 2020 election, isn't something that would necessarily prove to be the catalyst for sparking a boost in Trump's approval ratings: the closer it happened to 2020 the less Trump would be able to lay the blame at Obama's feet, it will have rendered Trump's Muslim Ban as utterly inept, it will call into question what we got as a nation from Trump's increased military spending and if Trump's Administration 3 years from now is still making unforced errors at the rate they are today another terror attack could well put the nail in the coffin for people wanting to re-up with The Donald for another go-around.

All hypothetical and speculative, but there you go.