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Thread: There Are 3 Main Theories That Explain Trumpís Approach to Putin and Russia

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    There Are 3 Main Theories That Explain Trumpís Approach to Putin and Russia

    There Are 3 Main Theories That Explain Trumpís Approach to Putin and RussiaóWhich One Makes the Most Sense? Time for Occamís Razor

    Thom Hartmann
    Friday, July 20, 2018
    Common Dreams

    There are three general theories to explain Trumpís behavior toward Russia (and other hard-right broadly autocratic regimes), and for unknown reasons the two most likely ones are almost entirely absent from our electronic media. The three theories, in ascending order of likelihood, are:

    The Manchurian Candidate: Heís being blackmailed or has been a Russian asset for years.

    The Wannabe Dictator: He believes that countries should be run like companiesóessentially autocracies.

    The Deadbeat: Heís not only not rich, but heís badly in debt, and Russian billionaires are among his main creditors.


    The Manchurian Candidate
    theory was largely the one Democrats implied during the election, and most have implicitly embraced since then, along with many commentators on MSNBC and CNN. Itís the least likely, although if itís true Robert Mueller will probably be letting us all know soon. But thereís little in Trumpís past that would suggest this is the case other than his embrace of Russia over the Obama administrationís reactions to the annexation of Crimea and activity in Ukraine.

    But itís far more likely that his support of Russia during the Obama administration had everything to do with hating on anything our nationís first Black president had done (impose sanctions on Russia and expel diplomats, etc.) as well as wanting to trash the presumed 2016 Democratic presidential candidate, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

    Even his dislike of NATO is the sort of standard-variety right-wing stuff thatís been promoted within the Republican Party from the days of the John Birch Society to Steve Bannonís recent reign, and reflects an isolationist fear of alliances rather than an affection for non-NATO actors like Russia.

    The Wannabe Dictator theory has a lot more credibility, and explains much of why Trump gravitates to strongman types like Putin, Turkeyís Erdogan, the Philippinesí Duterte, Saudi Arabiaís Mohammed bin Salman, and Chinaís Xi.

    Trump knows very little about the history behind democratic republics (it would be shocking if he could even identify Thomas Hobbes or John Locke, or define the Enlightenment) and virtually nothing (based on public pronouncements) about the fundamental reasons why ďGovernments are instituted among men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed.Ē

    Businesses are basically serfdoms. The CEO is the king, the board and senior executives are the courtiers and landed gentry, and the workers are the serfs. This has been Trumpís experience ever since he inherited his daddyís business, and heís never in his life been accountable to any principle (like ďdemocracyĒ) or to any persons.

    So, much like George W. Bushís ďjokeĒ that, ďIf this were a dictatorship it would be a heck of a lot easier... as long as Iím the dictator,Ē Trump not only may think it would be easier, but, even more ominous, may think itís desirable for the country.

    Republicans have long used false analogies of ďgovernment as business or homeĒ (particularly with regard to debt) that completely distort the real reasons for the existence of, and functions of, government. So it wouldnít be at all surprising if Trump were to believe this nonsense, out of both ignorance and temperament.

    The Deadbeat theory is the most likely, although it doesnít preclude either or both of the above.

    When given a variety of possible explanations for something happening, usually the most simple and direct answer is the correct one. And thereís one huge, simple, straightforward explanation for Donald Trumpís perpetual unwillingness to even hint at a direct criticism of Putin. And itís not the pee-pee tapes.

    Hereís how and why.

    We all know that Trump is both a terrible negotiator and a terrible businessman. Dozens of his companies have gone down in flames, thousands of small businesses and workers have been screwed out of money he owed them, and his bankruptcies are legendary.

    If the American people didnít seem to think this was a big deal, the American banks sure did. After Trumpís last bankruptcy, so far as press reports indicate, he could no longer borrow money at reasonable rates here in the U.S., and a real estate developer who canít borrow money is rapidly out of business.

    So Trump, as his son Eric tells it, turned away from U.S. banks and went to a number of Russian billionaires for his money. In 2014, when asked directly how he could have acquired $100 million in cash for new golf course acquisitions, Eric Trump famously said, ďWell, we donít rely on American banks. We have all the funding we need out of Russia.Ē

    So, if President Putin were to order his own billionaires to get their money back out of Trumpís properties and refuse to give him any more, Trump could well end up broke.

    Really broke.

    As in, losing all his properties, from Mar-a-Lago to Trump Tower.

    It could wipe out all of his remaining businesses.

    His kids would have to get real jobs, and no more big-game safaris.

    His wife might leave him, and take their son.

    He could end up living in a cardboard box on skid row.

    Trump isnít afraid of being exposed as a lout or a racist; heís afraid of being financially wiped out if Russian oligarchs pull out of Trump properties.

    If heís seeing that collection of pictures in his head when he looks at Vladimir Putin, it would go a long way to explain his prayerful body posture and cringeworthy sycophancy.

    This also would explain why Trump has been so unwilling to release his tax returns, even after he won the election.

    As David Cay Johnston has pointed out on multiple occasions, Trump is almost certainly nowhere near as rich as he brags that he is, and has a long history of connections with shady/mafia characters to get the money he needs.

    But this is not about just being embarrassed by being caught about inflating his net worthóTrumpís a man who has little ability to feel shame, as we have seen over and over again. Similarly, itís not about the pee-pee tapes.

    After bragging that he can grab women by the crotchóand having dozens come forward and accuse him of variations on just thatóhe must know that if heíd paid a couple of white Russian hookers to urinate on the bed that our nationís first Black president and his wife had slept in, it may well actually help him with his base. It surely wouldnít hurt him politically, and he knows that as well as anybody.

    Trump isnít afraid of being exposed as a lout or a racist; heís afraid of being financially wiped out if Russian oligarchs pull out of Trump properties.

    Itís why heís even willing to take the risks and political hit by defying the Constitution and hanging onto the Trump Hotel in D.C.óhe needs the money to keep his businesses afloat.

    In 2016, Fortune magazine analyzed his federal public filings, and concluded that heís both less wealthy than he says and appears, and that he regularly lies about it.

    Occamís razor dictates that, like with everything else in Trumpís entire life, this is all about money and its relationship to his own fragile self-image. If a few Russian oligarchs said, ďNyet,Ē he would suffer severe damage, both reputational and business-wise, and it may well be damage from which he couldnít recover.

    It may also explain why Russia (and a few other countries with billionaire oligarchs and/or Trump business interests, from the Middle East countries with Trump properties, to China with Trumpís daughterís manufacturing) were enthusiastic about Donald Trump becoming president.

    A man who depends on you for his financial lifeblood is a man more willing to give in around governmental and policy areas.

    Now that Robert Mueller has, according to some reports, acquired access to Trumpís business records, all this may be coming out, which may explain why Trump seems so obsessed with, and frightened by, Muellerís and the FBIís ďwitch hunt.Ē

    If Mueller exposes financial fragility on Trumpís part, it may tip the first domino that then causes the entire Trump empire to collapse.

    Itíd be interesting to see if the Chinese, for example, would then claw back the billion dollars they just pledged to Trumpís Indonesian property, or his daughterís hundred-million-dollar Chinese trademarks, which coincidentally preceded by days Trumpís decision to let ZTE resume selling spy-able phones to U.S. citizens.

    Equally interesting will be if the Middle Eastern billionaires and state wealth funds that are loaning over a billion to bail out Jared Kushner decide heís no longer a good bet, either.

    This is one of the few scenarios that explain pretty much everybodyís behavior within the Trump Crime Family, as well as the people in their immediate orbit.

    As Mark Felt (ďDeep ThroatĒ) famously said to Bob Woodward: ďFollow the money.Ē
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    Until we get the tax returns and/or a detailed cash flow breakdown of Trump Inc. for the past 20 years - after his casino collapsed and he had to rely more and more on foreign sources of revenue (and, in some cases, from dubious sources) because major US lending institutions wouldn't give Trump nickel one, it's hard to say with any specificity exactly how much money flowed to Trump from Russian oligarchs (and from exactly which ones in terms of a comprehensive list). Trump could well possibly be compromised from a financial standpoint to some Russians via loans, but as far as I know that hasn't been established as a fact yet.

    Does Trump clearly value strongmen dictators over democratically elected heads of state? To ask the question is to answer it: I don't think even the most ardent Trump supporter could put forth an argument that would convincingly persuade a rational person that Trump doesn't.

    Is Trump closer to broke than a billion? Are his net assets closer to zero than a billion? It'd be hard to believe on the face of it just in terms of the value of the real estate he personally owns that Trump isn't worth at least several hundred million dollars. Unless those properties are leveraged to the hilt. My understanding is that most of Trump's serious income since the late 1990s comes from the licensing of his name, but I'd assume he owns such properties as Mar-a-Lago, plus he still owns a substantial amount of real estate in NYC. Perhaps his cash on hand and personal assets are much closer to zero than a billion, but that doesn't include the real estate. Plus, even if his properties/clubs are losing money, lest we not forget Trump now gets to live off the taxpayer dime in terms of expenses and travel, and will be doing so high off the hog until he leaves office.

    I mean, it wouldn't surprise me if Putin has some sort of personal compromising material on Trump. Trump enjoyed consorting with women who worked in the adult entertainment industry, along with swimsuit models and the like. I tend to doubt the two hookers pissing on Obama's bed in a Moscow hotel room story, mostly because I'd like to think Trump wasn't stupid enough to put himself in a position where he would have been compromised via art/photos of him engaging in such proclivities while he was in Russia. If that DOES happen to be the case, though, Trump should just admit it: if he's being blackmailed, surely even he must know said blackmail will keep on continuing forever until the blackmailer presents a set of demands Trump is unable to meet and the story will eventually out anyway. And I'd also tend to imagine a not unsubstantial number of Trump voters would actually like Trump MORE if they knew he paid two hookers to piss on a bed Obama had slept on.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Terry View Post
    I mean, it wouldn't surprise me if Putin has some sort of personal compromising material on Trump. Trump enjoyed consorting with women who worked in the adult entertainment industry, along with swimsuit models and the like. I tend to doubt the two hookers pissing on Obama's bed in a Moscow hotel room story, mostly because I'd like to think Trump wasn't stupid enough to put himself in a position where he would have been compromised via art/photos of him engaging in such proclivities while he was in Russia. If that DOES happen to be the case, though, Trump should just admit it: if he's being blackmailed, surely even he must know said blackmail will keep on continuing forever until the blackmailer presents a set of demands Trump is unable to meet and the story will eventually out anyway. And I'd also tend to imagine a not unsubstantial number of Trump voters would actually like Trump MORE if they knew he paid two hookers to piss on a bed Obama had slept on.

    I doubt the pissing story although a lot of the other stuff in that report has been proved to be true.

    I think it's more about money and loans. (Yet another) sex scandal would not be enough for his subservience to Putin.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Seshmeister View Post
    I doubt the pissing story although a lot of the other stuff in that report has been proved to be true.

    I think it's more about money and loans. (Yet another) sex scandal would not be enough for his subservience to Putin.
    Nobody cares about sex scandals anymore unless it deals with pedophilia. The country is going to stay divided on Trump. It's partisan politics. Nothing more. Everything is divided including the media. Everyone is in their bubbles smelling their own farts.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Terry View Post
    Until we get the tax returns and/or a detailed cash flow breakdown of Trump Inc. for the past 20 years - after his casino collapsed and he had to rely more and more on foreign sources of revenue (and, in some cases, from dubious sources) because major US lending institutions wouldn't give Trump nickel one, it's hard to say with any specificity exactly how much money flowed to Trump from Russian oligarchs (and from exactly which ones in terms of a comprehensive list). Trump could well possibly be compromised from a financial standpoint to some Russians via loans, but as far as I know that hasn't been established as a fact yet.

    Does Trump clearly value strongmen dictators over democratically elected heads of state? To ask the question is to answer it: I don't think even the most ardent Trump supporter could put forth an argument that would convincingly persuade a rational person that Trump doesn't.

    Is Trump closer to broke than a billion? Are his net assets closer to zero than a billion? It'd be hard to believe on the face of it just in terms of the value of the real estate he personally owns that Trump isn't worth at least several hundred million dollars. Unless those properties are leveraged to the hilt. My understanding is that most of Trump's serious income since the late 1990s comes from the licensing of his name, but I'd assume he owns such properties as Mar-a-Lago, plus he still owns a substantial amount of real estate in NYC. Perhaps his cash on hand and personal assets are much closer to zero than a billion, but that doesn't include the real estate. Plus, even if his properties/clubs are losing money, lest we not forget Trump now gets to live off the taxpayer dime in terms of expenses and travel, and will be doing so high off the hog until he leaves office.

    I mean, it wouldn't surprise me if Putin has some sort of personal compromising material on Trump. Trump enjoyed consorting with women who worked in the adult entertainment industry, along with swimsuit models and the like. I tend to doubt the two hookers pissing on Obama's bed in a Moscow hotel room story, mostly because I'd like to think Trump wasn't stupid enough to put himself in a position where he would have been compromised via art/photos of him engaging in such proclivities while he was in Russia. If that DOES happen to be the case, though, Trump should just admit it: if he's being blackmailed, surely even he must know said blackmail will keep on continuing forever until the blackmailer presents a set of demands Trump is unable to meet and the story will eventually out anyway. And I'd also tend to imagine a not unsubstantial number of Trump voters would actually like Trump MORE if they knew he paid two hookers to piss on a bed Obama had slept on.
    A lot of real estate that says Trump on it is not owned by Trump. He's franchises his name out. I haven't seen any actual proof of anything. It's all speculation. If they actually had something substantial the investigation would be focused on that. It's been all over the place looking for any kind of dirt even if it has nothing to do with Russian collusion. It's all a bunch of noise.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Terry View Post
    Until we get the tax returns and/or a detailed cash flow breakdown of Trump Inc. for the past 20 years - after his casino collapsed and he had to rely more and more on foreign sources of revenue (and, in some cases, from dubious sources) because major US lending institutions wouldn't give Trump nickel one, it's hard to say with any specificity exactly how much money flowed to Trump from Russian oligarchs (and from exactly which ones in terms of a comprehensive list). Trump could well possibly be compromised from a financial standpoint to some Russians via loans, but as far as I know that hasn't been established as a fact yet.

    Does Trump clearly value strongmen dictators over democratically elected heads of state? To ask the question is to answer it: I don't think even the most ardent Trump supporter could put forth an argument that would convincingly persuade a rational person that Trump doesn't.

    Is Trump closer to broke than a billion? Are his net assets closer to zero than a billion? It'd be hard to believe on the face of it just in terms of the value of the real estate he personally owns that Trump isn't worth at least several hundred million dollars. Unless those properties are leveraged to the hilt. My understanding is that most of Trump's serious income since the late 1990s comes from the licensing of his name, but I'd assume he owns such properties as Mar-a-Lago, plus he still owns a substantial amount of real estate in NYC. Perhaps his cash on hand and personal assets are much closer to zero than a billion, but that doesn't include the real estate. Plus, even if his properties/clubs are losing money, lest we not forget Trump now gets to live off the taxpayer dime in terms of expenses and travel, and will be doing so high off the hog until he leaves office.

    I mean, it wouldn't surprise me if Putin has some sort of personal compromising material on Trump. Trump enjoyed consorting with women who worked in the adult entertainment industry, along with swimsuit models and the like. I tend to doubt the two hookers pissing on Obama's bed in a Moscow hotel room story, mostly because I'd like to think Trump wasn't stupid enough to put himself in a position where he would have been compromised via art/photos of him engaging in such proclivities while he was in Russia. If that DOES happen to be the case, though, Trump should just admit it: if he's being blackmailed, surely even he must know said blackmail will keep on continuing forever until the blackmailer presents a set of demands Trump is unable to meet and the story will eventually out anyway. And I'd also tend to imagine a not unsubstantial number of Trump voters would actually like Trump MORE if they knew he paid two hookers to piss on a bed Obama had slept on.
    My gut is that Trump is worth a few hundred million and his wealth stature is vastly overinflated. I think his real fear is that someone, like the IRS, could come after whatever he has left if he were to fall whereas a real billionaire would have the means to keep himself out of jail...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nitro Express View Post
    A lot of real estate that says Trump on it is not owned by Trump. He's franchises his name out. I haven't seen any actual proof of anything. It's all speculation. If they actually had something substantial the investigation would be focused on that. It's been all over the place looking for any kind of dirt even if it has nothing to do with Russian collusion. It's all a bunch of noise.
    I'd agree at this point from what has been disclosed to the general public thus far, there's certainly no smoking gun. I tend to think Mueller has come up with a lot of potentially ancillary activities - in terms of a 'Grand Scheme' - while digging into people like Page, Manafort, Flynn, Cohen: most people, you put them under a powerful enough microscope, you'll come up with something. Are these activities defined as treasonous, or ethical/financial violations?

    I tend to think that while Trump had been pondering a presidential run for decades, he decision to jump in in 2015 had more to do with keeping his celebrity factor viable than him ever thinking for a moment he was going to win. He would jump in the race, say a bunch of crazy stuff, maybe peak at 10% in the primaries, then that'd be it. Doubtless, Putin would have preferred Trump to Clinton. I wouldn't be surprised if plenty of the anti-Hillary bot ads/messaging was Kremlin-instigated: what would Putin have to lose? Proving that Trump knew about that while it was going on, or in advance of it happening, or that those surrounding him in the campaign knew about a Kremlin-initiated plot to influence the elections and colluded with Russia...I'm not seeing the standard of proof I as a citizen would want to see before I would be willing to consider impeachment.

    However, there are too many weird synchronicities, intersecting actors and actions and behaviors for me to call it all a bunch of noise that has been fabricated out of whole cloth, as it were. Just too many connections we know about already (the Don Jr / Kushner meeting with the Russian nationalist offering dirt on Hillary during the campaign, the bizarre coincidence of Trump calling on Russia to hack Hillary's emails during the campaign while Roger Stone was in contact with Wikileaks, and then - just as the Access Hollywood tape is breaking - Wikileaks dumps their Clinton trove into the public domain) for me to dismiss this Russian stuff as fake news.

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    An unsubstantiated theory --- goes like this

    anda one anda two ---


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    Quote Originally Posted by Terry View Post

    Is Trump closer to broke than a billion? Are his net assets closer to zero than a billion? It'd be hard to believe on the face of it just in terms of the value of the real estate he personally owns that Trump isn't worth at least several hundred million dollars.
    If the F A T Orange fuck has any money it would be in liquid assets much of them worth next to nothing on a buyer's market. Much of his real estate holdings would be money pits for investors. No question he took Russian money but that only limited since he such a dumbfuck to deal with anyone on a proper business level. That explains little Donnie Jr and and Jared's dealings in India, and Saudi Arabia, and to a lesser extant, China who most likely knew who they were getting in with. The F A T Orange fuck's family didn't make a deal with the devil, they made several of them with several of devils knowing the day would come when they would come to collect unless...he sold the county out to them.
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