Coronavirus Community Watch

[Seshmeister]

Yeah, looks like it. Just got an email that it's been extended to May 4.

Happy happy.... joy joy.......

Sorry but for whatever reasons Americans seem to be way behind the curve in information on this whole disaster.

Maybe it's your natural optimism or your media but hold my feet to the fire if I'm wrong but my best guess is 3 months so July followed by a few months of relaxation but not normal until November then another 4 months when it comes back.

Hopefully I'm wrong but May 4th is fantasy, you need to start adjusting your mindset.

People who are connected to you will start dying this month.

[FORD]

Well I certainly hope not. Everybody I know is doing well, so far.

Haven't been wearing a mask outside, but after this latest info that the shit stays in the air for a while, I'm probably going to start. Fortunately, I found one I had stashed away, and it's an N95, no less. Hard to breathe in that damned thing, but I suppose it beats being harder to breathe permanently.

[twonabomber]

Our stay at home order got extended to May 1. Stores will have to set a maximum occupancy limit but no number has been mandated by the state.

First of the month the other day, payday today, and now a limit on people in the store...good thing it's supposed to be nice. I may be in line a while.

[twonabomber]

Work is fucking busy. We run 24/7 anyways but demand is up 150% over plan. BIG jobs too, we haven't run jobs this big in years. Top ten items have been prioritized. We used to do same day service, it was changed to two days a week ago and now it's seven days.

Work brought us in a box lunch from Panera the other day (which was meh), and we're going to get a catered box lunch once a week for the next month. Plant manager says it'll be one less thing we have to worry about for a day and it'll spread some business around to area restaurants. I haven't been out to eat since March 12, this weekend I will probably get pizza from the shop around the corner and tip the delivery guy well. I feel fortunate to still be working. Friend of mine isn't sure if he's going back Monday but he got an email that said the company was suspending the 401k match for the rest of the year. And my 401k...oy, vey. Good thing I have another 15 years to work.

So far the governor says the state parks will remain open. Lake is getting warmer, if I go out in the kayak I won't be close to anyone. Same with the river, it's wide enough that I'd be away from any fishermen.

[ZahZoo]

Sorry but for whatever reasons Americans seem to be way behind the curve in information on this whole disaster.

Maybe it's your natural optimism or your media but hold my feet to the fire if I'm wrong but my best guess is 3 months so July followed by a few months of relaxation but not normal until November then another 4 months when it comes back.

Hopefully I'm wrong but May 4th is fantasy, you need to start adjusting your mindset.

People who are connected to you will start dying this month.

Here's a site I've been following with some fairly reasonable predictions... shows hospital beds usage/shortages, deaths per day, total deaths, etc... their models don't show things getting better until around June 1. You can use the drop down in the green bar to look at individual states.

http://covid19.healthdata.org/

[ZahZoo]

Question for the day... Do you think stay at home orders at a state level are necessary?

I'm in one of 8 states who haven't issued a state level stay at home order... They've "recommended" stay at home and ordered limiting bars/restaurants to carry-out only, closed theaters, hair shops, sporting events, parks, camping and all retail except for grocery, gas, etc. Plus ordered no gatherings greater than 10 in public spaces.

IMO... I'm thinking that's sufficient for my area which is mostly rural and no major metropolitan sized cities. Although there are a lot of people just not taking this seriously... I doubt a legal order will change much of that.

Thoughts..?

[silverfish]

Question for the day... Do you think stay at home orders at a state level are necessary?

I'm in one of 8 states who haven't issued a state level stay at home order...

Since you asked...

I think I'd be overly cautious if i I wasn't in a "stay home" state. If the virus hasn't hit you yet, it's
probably only a matter of time before it arrives. I realize it's gonna be a damned if you do type
situation - if you close you'll hear "Why are you shutting us down?" but if you stay open they'll say
"Why didn't you close sooner?". All things considered, your politicians may regret they didn't err on
the side of caution and try to get ahead of it before your state gets slammed. I mean, seriously -
do you think this thing isn't gonna touch the entire USA? Be thankful you're clean thus far but do whatever takes to remain tnat way, no?...

And you gotta accept the President has NO idea how to handle this. He holds his press/gripe sessions
and spouts things that are immediately contradicted by his task force. Forget your politics & use your head.

Since you asked...

[Terry]

Question for the day... Do you think stay at home orders at a state level are necessary?

I'm in one of 8 states who haven't issued a state level stay at home order... They've "recommended" stay at home and ordered limiting bars/restaurants to carry-out only, closed theaters, hair shops, sporting events, parks, camping and all retail except for grocery, gas, etc. Plus ordered no gatherings greater than 10 in public spaces.

IMO... I'm thinking that's sufficient for my area which is mostly rural and no major metropolitan sized cities. Although there are a lot of people just not taking this seriously... I doubt a legal order will change much of that.

Thoughts..?

The general consensus within the scientific community is that, as silverfish said, even if you're in a region that hasn't been impacted by it yet, it's probably only a matter of time before it arrives.

The data from the last outbreak along these lines a century ago suggested that the areas which were affected the least were those that had the most restrictive quarantine policies.

From what I've read so far, although I'm not a scientist my understanding is the virus can be present in people who either exhibit no symptoms for up to 3 weeks or the symptoms end up being very mild for some, and all the while as carriers they are spreading the virus to others that whole time.

I'd tend to think stay at home orders and travel restrictions on a federal level might be considered: I'm reasonably sure the good folks of Wyoming, Idaho, Nebraska and the Dakotas probably don't want hundreds of thousands of people currently living near the urban epicenters who could possibly have the virus yet are currently exhibiting no symptoms rushing to the center of the country to any of their states in an attempt to flee the hot spots. Much the same as I'd imagine on a micro level the folks in less populated areas of Wyoming wouldn't want people in the greater and more populated Cheyenne Metro Area fleeing to smaller towns in Wyoming should Cheyenne experience an outbreak: they'd want those folks in Cheyenne to stay put and stay at home in order to contain the spread, both within the Cheyenne area/between the residents of Cheyenne AND from the rest of the state.

Does that rationale make sense?

A legal order may well not change the minds of people who aren't taking this seriously. Unfortunately, the virus doesn't care what your religion is, or how smart you are, or what your political beliefs are, or if you think stay-at-home orders are necessary or something to be taken seriously, or if you live in a city, suburb or rural area...it doesn't even care which side of the Roth/Hagar divide you fall on.

[twonabomber]

I dunno...people already don't follow laws. Are orders laws?

People are going to get antsy once the weather breaks. Good luck keeping everyone inside if these orders get extended again and again.

A lot of local events have already cancelled, getting into July now. County fair is mid-July, I think they'll cancel soon. Our Fourth of July festival was cancelled. One good thing out of that...I don't have to clean my house for the party I have for the fireworks show.

I really don't mind being home. Went for a bike ride Friday and my friend commented that it sucked that we couldn't stop and eat after. Just a lot of stuff we like to do that we won't be doing.

[FORD]

[FORD]

I dunno...people already don't follow laws. Are orders laws?

People are going to get antsy once the weather breaks. Good luck keeping everyone inside if these orders get extended again and again.

A lot of local events have already cancelled, getting into July now. County fair is mid-July, I think they'll cancel soon. Our Fourth of July festival was cancelled. One good thing out of that...I don't have to clean my house for the party I have for the fireworks show.

I really don't mind being home. Went for a bike ride Friday and my friend commented that it sucked that we couldn't stop and eat after. Just a lot of stuff we like to do that we won't be doing.

The "Capital City Marathon" which runs right by my house every May has been cancelled. The LGBT's have cancelled all their usual June "pride" events. Our mid July "Capitol Lakefair" is still scheduled... at least for now. Though I don't know how they're going to elect the "royal court" of teenage beauty queens with all the high schools closed. So I would be surprised if they didn't pull the plug.

Even if this pandemic backs off it looks like a boring summer ahead.....

[Nickdfresh]

A better day in NY, the number of deaths is down from 630 Friday to 594 Saturday and hospitalizations are down, but Cuomo says that might be "just a blip". Hopefully things keep trending downward...

[Seshmeister]

Well hopefully but it seems too early for you guys to be over the worst.

Is it true 15 Ststes allowed church services to go ahead today in the US? If so that is complete lunacy.

[Seshmeister]

I hope some detailed research is done, and I'm sure it will be, on how many deaths were due to ineffective politicians who ignored the science early on.

I've heard figures of 50% already being mentioned - which is likely to be at least 100 000 needless deaths in the US.

It would be good if people were held to account on that even of it is the bare minimum of not re-electing them. Some of them have been so bad like that governor in Georgia, I honestly think they should face criminal charges,

Washington State and California seem to have done ok but how much of that has been undermined by Trump and the mixed messages from the executive? Same here.

[Nickdfresh]

Well hopefully but it seems too early for you guys to be over the worst.

We're not, the APEX is coming...

Is it true 15 Ststes allowed church services to go ahead today in the US? If so that is complete lunacy.

Yes, but there is growing backlash against these profiteering shitheads...

[ZahZoo]

I dunno...people already don't follow laws. Are orders laws?

People are going to get antsy once the weather breaks. Good luck keeping everyone inside if these orders get extended again and again.

A lot of local events have already cancelled, getting into July now. County fair is mid-July, I think they'll cancel soon. Our Fourth of July festival was cancelled. One good thing out of that...I don't have to clean my house for the party I have for the fireworks show.

I really don't mind being home. Went for a bike ride Friday and my friend commented that it sucked that we couldn't stop and eat after. Just a lot of stuff we like to do that we won't be doing.

The orders are laws and from what I'm observing via the news and social media is there's a fair amount of people in states with stay-at-home orders that aren't following them despite the formal declaration from their governor.

One thing to understand at least in my state, Arkansas... there's multiple orders in place that have shut down about 75% of all businesses. No gatherings over 10 people any where, motels/hotels are now only allowed to serve essential personnel, no out of state unless verified medical, military or essential business. Bars, restaurants, carry-out or drive-thru only. Theaters, sports, entertainment, recreational areas, trails, camping, etc... all closed.

Even churches in this bible belt region are only holding on-line services... funerals are grave side immediate family only. No weddings, baptisms, etc...

I'd say about 90% of the population is acting responsibly and staying at home... An official order won't effect much other than kill about 200k jobs and 5-10% that won't follow the order will still be idiots...

[FORD]

Well hopefully but it seems too early for you guys to be over the worst.

Is it true 15 Ststes allowed church services to go ahead today in the US? If so that is complete lunacy.

Palm Sunday's not a huge day for church attendance, as far as I know, but next week is the big question. Easter is probably the biggest church attendance day of the year under "normal" circumstances. It's been years since I went to an Easter service, so it won't be a big deal for me to miss it. For other folks, I hope their churches have some sort of online video sermon going. I'm sure JC wouldn't want anybody celebrating His resurrection by dropping dead a couple of weeks later.

[ZahZoo]

I work audio engineering for our contemporary church services... typical service has 5 songs. Mostly modern, christian rock based material.

For the last 3 weeks we've been recording the songs with just just the musicians, singers and 1 engineer. 7-8 of us tops. We have a 32 channel board and use 16-18 channels for the music. The music is all recorded digitally with 5 go-pros for video and the contemporary leader masters it down to a stereo track. They also record the sermon and any other program content and it all goes to youtube and facebook plus a sound only recording to a local radio station for a digital broadcast Sunday morning.

Same thing planned for Easter service.

[Terry]

We're not, the APEX is coming...



Yes, but there is growing backlash against these profiteering shitheads...

I wouldn't say this is necessarily the rationale behind all of the churches which are still doing business-as-usual Sunday congregation services, but with the business-as-usual model in terms of the collection plate being passed around, it's much easier to skim and stash undeclared tangible cash direct from the pockets of the parish than it is if they are clicking an online donation button which leaves an electronic record.

[ZahZoo]

Churches and the money aspect is an uncomfortable subject for many... lot of money flows thru those institutions... much for good things, but I'm sure a portion not so much.

I am shaking my head at a bunch of idiots in Little Rock... they decided to have a parade of sorts yesterday. More like a car cruising event. No floats, or crowds in the streets. Just fools driving together. Cops shut it down pretty quick... One fight broke out. All involved in the fight were arrested.

[Nickdfresh]

Swannie House, AJ's Clarence Hollow
By Stephen T. Watson
Published April 7, 2020|Updated April 7, 2020

The state Liquor Authority suspended on an emergency basis the licenses for taverns in Buffalo and Clarence accused of violating the state's Covid-19 restrictions on bar and restaurant operations.

The authority's board on Tuesday afternoon voted to issue emergency suspensions for Swannie House, 170 Ohio St., and AJ's Clarence Hollow, 10250 Main St., according to an authority spokesman.

Once a liquor license is summarily suspended, the license holder has the right to an expedited hearing before an administrative law judge. The suspension order remains in effect until it is changed by the authority or through a judicial review.

Erie County Health Department employees and sheriff's deputies had closed the taverns on March 27 after receiving complaints that the two were serving patrons on the premises.

Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo had issued a state executive order on March 22 closing all bars and restaurants except for takeout and delivery orders.

County Health Department spokeswoman Kara Kane had said the employees were following up on complaints from the public and that the closings are temporary but don't have an end date.

According to a statement from the liquor authority, Erie County officials received a complaint on March 27 that the Swannie House was continuing normal daily operations. The complaint included a video showing about 12 people at the bar consuming alcoholic beverages.

When Erie County sheriff's deputies arrived at 9 p.m., they found the front door locked and saw customers leaving through a rear door.

The same day, county officials received complaints that AJ’s in Clarence also was continuing to operate. A health inspector watched the restaurant for about 30 minutes and saw 11 people inside the bar.

Deputies and health inspectors who went into the bar were met by the owner. After they told him he was in violation of the governor's order, he insisted he couldn't stop customers from hanging out and drinking inside the premises.

Al Toralti, an owner of AJ's Clarence Hollow, told The Buffalo News the next day that he took responsibility for what happened but said he didn't intentionally set out to violate the state order.

Toralti said he had a minimal staff on for that day and he said he wasn't prepared when his phone line blew up with orders for fish fries and other meals starting around 5 p.m.

The business wasn't able to keep up with the volume of orders and customers ended up having to wait around for their food, he said.

Some had gotten drinks to go – which are permitted under the state order – and they ended up standing or sitting near the bar with them until their food was ready to carry out.

"It was definitely my fault," Toralti said. "I basically just lost control."

“Bar and restaurant owners have to take this new reality seriously,” Erie County Executive Mark C. Poloncarz said in a statement released the next day. “These regulations are in place for a deadly serious reason, and bars and restaurants that are open in violation of the law are putting their customers and their employees at risk. This is unacceptable and we will shut you down.”

https://buffalonews.com/2020/04/07/s...arence-hollow/

[Nitro Express]

Our neighbor is a cardiologist. He said with the ski resorts closed and the tourist industry shutdown our hospital isn’t busy at all. So some of the staff are in New Jersey helping out there.

[FORD]

Safeway is a little tone deaf in their advertising this week..

Right on the front page they're advertising this product.......



Ooops.....

Not that I would drink alcoholic "seltzer" in either case. Probably just rebranded Zima or some shit like that..... and if the product sticks around at all, it's probably going to have a new name really soon.

Kinda like that "Aids" diet appetite suppressant candy they made in the 70s. You don't see that shit anymore, for obvious reasons.

[twonabomber]

I wonder what the lead time is on those ads. Could have been planned and printed a month ago.

"Spiked water" is the 2000's wine cooler...

[Seshmeister]

I work audio engineering for our contemporary church services... typical service has 5 songs. Mostly modern, christian rock based material.

For the last 3 weeks we've been recording the songs with just just the musicians, singers and 1 engineer. 7-8 of us tops. We have a 32 channel board and use 16-18 channels for the music. The music is all recorded digitally with 5 go-pros for video and the contemporary leader masters it down to a stereo track. They also record the sermon and any other program content and it all goes to youtube and facebook plus a sound only recording to a local radio station for a digital broadcast Sunday morning.

Same thing planned for Easter service.

Suggested song titles

"Nice One Jesus"

"Thanks a bunch god"

"I want to praise you, I know I oughta but then you filled my lungs with water"

[FORD]

I wonder what the lead time is on those ads. Could have been planned and printed a month ago.

"Spiked water" is the 2000's wine cooler...

Well, the previous week's ad had a thank you note to their employees for working under the current crisis (or words to that effect) so this one would have had to be printed during the pandemic. Maybe they printed it on April 1 and somebody thought it would be a good "April Fools" joke?

[FORD]

[FORD]

[twonabomber]

[twonabomber]

I'm home for a week, my usual schedule. It'll be nice to get away from the bleach and 409 fumes at work. New plant manager bleach bombed the break room one morning and I coughed the rest of the week. Told our EHS guy that if my choices were being poisoned by bleach fumes or the virus, I'd take my chances with the virus.

[twonabomber]

Wouldn't know it by stopping at the store but it appears my county is staying home:

There have been 29 coronavirus-related hospitalizations and seven Intensive Care Unit admissions as of 2 p.m., April 7. The ages of those who have been hospitalized range from 40-94 years old and the average age is 63, according to the report.

Five deaths, all men, ages range from 55 to 93. The average age is 74.

County population is around 227,255.

[Seshmeister]

The geographical size of the US is your friend and may offset some of the crazy policies for a while at least.

The death rate for men is way higher than for women everywhere, there are various theories for this but nothing certain at the moment.

[Seshmeister]

This is a good chart to point out as it stops people panicking about the itchy or watery eyes and sneezing caused by all the cleaning fluids....

[FORD]

I was slightly concerned last week when I thought I was "a little over heated". Thankfully just mild dehydration, no fever. The usual seasonal allergies are annoying as ever, but not deadly at least.

[twonabomber]

I'm back on the busy end of our machine. I'm moving most of the day. We have to wear "bump caps" and I sweat like a mofo in those things. Got warm at one point, got cold later. Typical work day. My eyes will be itchy soon. I am just itchy overall right now, slightly skeeved out. Hands and wrists are dry due to cleaners and sanitizers. I need to get in the garage and working on something, get some protective grease in my system

I think I was more anxious to get the fuck out of there yesterday than I am before I go on vacation. Stopped twice for supplies after work this week. Really glad to see people bringing the whole fucking family along and not watching what the kids do. Get out of the way! And the woman in front of me Wednesday night held a napkin as she picked everything up and was dropping stuff back into the cart. I think her husband was getting annoyed. This is why I shop at 6 am after work or 3 am when I am off. Having to be there when everyone else is isn't doing anything for me.

We continue to be busy. 150% of plan, this time of year we are around 75% of plan. If we have a snag it'll likely be running out of raw materials. Easter is not a paid holiday on our schedule, we'll be running. I go back next Friday night.

[ZahZoo]

Here's the age stats for Arkansas for positive cases (1202):

0-17: 33
18-24: 75
25-44: 351
45-64: 428
65+: 284

Male = 42.5%
Female = 57.5%

Black: 296
White: 749
American Indian: 4
Asian: 17
Pacific Islander: 2
Multiracial: 3
Other: 25
Missing: 75

In my county, out of ~25,000 we've had 69 positive, 34 recovered and 4 deaths.

[FORD]

theolympian.com
Thurston County COVID-19 cases unchanged at 80; people recovering inches up to 67
By Loumay Alesali


The number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Thurston County was unchanged at 80 after public health officials announced no new cases over the weekend.

However, the number of people who either have recovered or are recovering did rise to 67 on Sunday from 66 on Saturday, according to Thurston County Public Health and Social Services. Other categories were unchanged. The county still has one death and 13 people have been hospitalized.

Does the lack of new cases suggest the spread of the respiratory illness is slowing?

County data would appear to suggest it, showing a growing number of cases that peaked with 31 the week of March 30. Since then the number of cases has fallen to 13, the data show.

[Seshmeister]

When you look at the figures from Scandinavia it looks like population density is a factor, it would help explain why deaths by population in Scotland are a good bit lower than in England.

The population density of Thurston Count is 58 per square km. In the UK as a whole it is ten times that. New York State is 159, New York City is 1100.

[ZahZoo]

Simple logic works... more people, more spread, more dead... This version is really, really contagious.

It appears progress is being made in reducing the overall spread... I just hope people have the patience to keep the current measures going long enough to get a handle on this.

I don't believe we're even half way there yet...

[ZahZoo]

Encouraging status for my county... 9 days no new cases confirmed and holding at 70 total. Factoring in reported recovered 40 and deaths 4 we're at 26 active cases. Out of ~25,000 population.