Overall, Russian combat effectiveness is severely depleted. Leaked Russian numbers peg their manpower losses at 9,861 dead and 16,153 injured. Roughly 26,000 out of 190,000 in the original invading force is an attrition rate of around 14%, with casualties heavily skewed towards combat troops. Remember only about 15% of the invading force is actually combat, the rest support. Rob Lee on Twitter is tracking Russian obituaries, and if you scroll through, you’ll notice that they skew heavily toward VDV forces—that’s Russia’s supposedly elite airborne troops, who have specifically deployed in this northwest Kyiv approach.
Russia is in deep shit. They’ve lost their best troops on this front, reportedly replacing them with conscripts and other scrubs. Now they’re under heavy assault by Ukrainians in an area they’ve had trouble resupplying from the very beginning. There is a very real chance this entire Russian line collapses under the pressure, not just putting Kyiv out of range of artillery, but delivering a crushing blow to Russia’s entire game plan.