DLR'sCock
11-07-2004, 12:48 PM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A29157-2004Nov5.html
Battle Near, Iraqi Sunnis Make Offer
By Karl Vick
The Washington Post
Saturday 06 November 2004
Major shift includes new interest in vote.
Baghdad - As Marines step up preparations for military offensives on two major Iraqi cities, a number of Sunni Muslim leaders are forwarding a plan to establish the rule of law in those areas through peaceful means, with the promise of reducing the insurgency across a large swath of the country.
Some of the groups leading the bid have encouraged violent resistance in central, western and northern Iraq. The groups say they will withdraw their support for violence if Iraq's interim government can reassure Sunni leaders wary of national elections, which are scheduled for the end of January.
The Sunnis have proposed six measures, including a demand that U.S. forces remain confined to bases in the month before balloting. Such an ambitious demand, which some advocates acknowledge is not likely to be met and may be open to negotiation, represents a dramatic shift by Sunni groups opposed to the U.S. operation in Iraq.
Until now, groups such as the Association of Muslim Scholars, which supports the new proposal, had insisted that no election could be considered legitimate until Western troops left Iraq. The association has repeatedly threatened to call for an election boycott through the loudspeakers of Iraq's Sunni mosques, which the association represents.
"We took an initiative regarding the elections. It is being welcomed by the people on the boycott side," said Wamidh Nadhmi, a Baghdad University political science professor who is spokesman for the initiative. "They said that if such agreements could be met by the Americans, they could change to participation."
The U.S. Embassy in Baghdad offered no reaction to the proposal, which it received this week. A Western diplomat emphasized that any decision lay with Iraq's interim government.
In separate interviews, senior U.S. and Iraqi officials were privately skeptical of the overture and indicated it was unlikely to avert a military offensive on Fallujah and Ramadi, which commanders say could begin at any time.
"They don't seem to get it. The monopoly of power is over," said a senior Iraqi government official, referring to former President Saddam Hussein's Sunni-dominated government. "One wonders how representative these elements are of the mainstream Sunni population. They may represent nostalgia for the past, but for sure no realistic vision for the future."
Some former officials with experience in Iraq called the Sunni proposal a potential breakthrough that could avert not only an assault on Fallujah but also a violent aftermath, when insurgents might take the fight elsewhere.
"Most of what we've learned about insurgencies is that you don't defeat one through purely military means," said Larry Diamond, who served in the U.S.-led occupation authority. "When you try to do that, you may win the battle but lose the war. The insurgency in the Sunni heartland is now quite broad-based, and I don't think we're going to defeat the insurgency in this part of the country through purely military means. I think we're looking at a protracted insurgency which will get worse if we go through with elections" that many Sunnis boycott.
"These groups," Diamond said, "have to be given evidence that it's in their interests to participate in the electoral process."
U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan, in a letter to President Bush disclosed Friday, warned that an assault on Fallujah "would be very disruptive of Iraq's political transition."
"Persuading elements who are currently alienated from, or skeptical about, the transition process to compete politically is key to creating a political and security context that will inspire confidence among all Iraqis," Annan wrote.
Iraqi and American officials also cite the impending election as a reason to take military action. Fallujah has been controlled by insurgents since April. They also move freely in Ramadi, the provincial capital, 30 miles to the west. In most of the rest of the country, voter registration began this week, and officials say the legitimacy of an ostensibly nationwide ballot will be undermined if residents of the Sunni Triangle area cannot take part.
Iraq's Sunni Arab minority, geographically concentrated in the country's midsection, was favored under Hussein. But Sunnis were markedly under-represented on the Governing Council put in place by the U.S.-led occupation and in the interim government that took power from the council in late June.
Elections could correct the imbalance, but many observers note that the country's majority Shiite Muslim population - long disenfranchised and eager to claim elected office - is better organized, larger, and pressing every advantage. On Thursday, the electoral commission announced that Iraqis who live overseas will be allowed to vote. The controversial decision is seen as benefiting Shiites who fled into exile under Hussein.
Nadhmi, the professor, emphasized that the groups behind the overture, who gathered under the umbrella of the Iraqi National Founding Conference, include Shiites and Christians. But the bulk of the conference represents Sunni interests. They include the Iraqi Nationalist Party, which has pan-Arab roots; the Democratic Reform Party, dominated by members of Hussein's Baath Party exiled to Syria; and the Association of Muslim Scholars, which claims to represent every Sunni mosque in Iraq and has frequently endorsed calls for resistance.
"This initiative is very significant," said an official involved in establishing the transitional government, who asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the issue. "They're no longer saying, 'We're not participating because the country is occupied.' They're saying, 'The government is not right. The only way we can make it right is by elections.'
"If you look at their demands, they're not impossible. They are things that can be discussed."
Several of the demands are grounded in skepticism about Iraq's newly minted election commission, a low-profile agency established by U.S. and U.N. officials. The Sunni group says it wants the panel reconstituted with prominent Iraqi judges "known for their honesty," and it wants the panel's work supervised by election monitors from other Arab and Islamic countries.
The group also wants the repeal of election regulations barring senior Baathists from standing for office, saying international norms call for bans only on people convicted of crimes. Ayad Allawi, the interim prime minister, has reversed some elements of the "de-Baathification" program put in place by L. Paul Bremer, the administrator of the U.S.-led occupation authority, but the bar on candidacy remains.
"There's a possibility of a Baathist slate," conceded Diamond, the former occupation official. "Now, these are nasty people. But I'd rather have them running peacefully in the election and winning a few seats in parliament than paying people to plant [roadside bombs] for our troops."
Most difficult for Iraqi and U.S. officials is the demand that American and other foreign forces remain outside major cities for the month of January. Insecurity is a profound problem across Iraq, and Iraqi police and other forces have not proven themselves capable of bringing certain areas under control.
The picture is further complicated by the presence of foreign fighters intent on carrying out violent strikes. Despite strains with Iraqi insurgents motivated by nationalism, Fallujah residents have said the foreign fighters continue to blend among the indigenous resistance. Negotiations between Allawi's government and Fallujah leaders broke down over the city's inability or refusal to eject the fighters.
One advocate of the new initiative said Iraqi Sunnis would persuade the foreigners to leave, though it may take time. He said attacks on U.S. and Iraqi forces would dissipate sooner if significant numbers of former Baathists feel they have a stake in the "new Iraq."
"Everyone agrees they are the spinal cord of the insurgency, and these groups have moral authority over them," said the official, who was formerly involved in Iraq.
Diamond acknowledged the proposal carried risks and may arrive too late to dissuade U.S. and Iraqi officials "who think it's time to go in and kick some butt."
But he added, "If there's a chance that this could be the beginning of political transformation that could change the situation on the ground, I think we've got to take it. Especially since many of the foreign fighters are said to have left Fallujah."
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Go to Original
Annan Defends Letter Warning of Fallouja Risk
By Maggie Farley
The Los Angeles Times
Saturday 06 November 2004
United Nations - Despite accusations of interference, Secretary-General Kofi Annan said Friday that it was his duty to speak up about how an assault on Fallouja might increase insecurity and disrupt elections slated for January, though he recognized that the final decision belonged to Iraq.
"We know that obviously the Iraqi government is responsible for running its affairs. But we have the responsibility to assist and work with them on the elections, and so to express concern was our business," he told the Los Angeles Times. "It's not something that one should take as amiss."
Annan warned in a private letter sent this week to President Bush, British Prime Minister Tony Blair and interim Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi that a full-scale attack on Fallouja would fuel further divisions and instability in Iraq and undermine participation in the elections. He also expressed concern that an attack would cause more civilian casualties and short-circuit negotiations to get nationalists to join the political process.
British and American spokesmen said the decision to use force in Fallouja was in the hands of the Iraqi government. In Brussels, Allawi said he found that in the letter, Annan seemed "confused."
"I don't know what he means by 'not to attack,' or 'to attack,' " he told BBC radio. "What are the substitutes? I don't know what pressure he has to bear on the insurgents. If he can stop the insurgents from inflicting damage and killing Iraqis, then he is welcome."
The letter underlined a fundamental difference in philosophy between the U.N. and the U.S.-led coalition on how best to neutralize the insurgents and "win the hearts and minds" of Iraqis.
"This is a very difficult situation, and difficult choices have to be made," Annan said. "We have extremist terrorists who have created an impossible situation for the average Iraqi.... So I can understand the desire and concern to want to deal with these people. We are in a process where one wants to pacify these hotspots, but at the same time one also wants to woo all Iraqis to participate in the process to make it as inclusive as possible."
An attack on Fallouja that causes high civilian casualties may swing residents' sympathies to the side of the insurgents, and cut off any prospect of bringing more moderate Sunni Muslim leaders into the elections, Annan said.
The letter, though private, was another in a recent series of declarations from Annan that put the world organization at odds with Washington. In a September interview, Annan said he thought the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq without the Security Council's approval was "illegal." Annan also said recently that he thought the Iraq war did not make the world safer.
On Friday, he said that he congratulated President Bush on his electoral victory. But as much as the Bush administration may be frustrated by the U.N., officials at the world body are frustrated by its partnership of necessity. Just as the U.N. agreed to help rebuild a country from a war it didn't back, it now finds itself trying to help organize elections in a context it believes to be counterproductive. And while the organization is being asked to take on more responsibility to make elections work in Iraq, officials fear it may be blamed if elections fail.
At the same time, Allawi and other Iraqi leaders are critical of the U.N. for sending only a few dozen staffers to Iraq and then second-guessing the government's decisions from afar.
"The Iraqi sovereign government is dealing with a situation on the ground. They are probably the best judge of what is likely to work and what is not likely to work," said Iraq's ambassador to the U.N., Samir Shakir Mahmoud Sumaidy, who will meet with Annan on Monday to protest the letter.
On Friday, Annan lifted the 35-person limit on U.N. staffers to be sent to Iraq to help set up elections, but declined to say how many would be deployed or when, citing security concerns. Annan said that election preparations appeared to be on track and that the U.N. was committed to making the balloting happen on time, but said Friday that he and his election experts disagreed with Iraq's decision to allow its expatriates to vote in January.
Elections chief Carina Perelli told reporters that organizing one election within a tight timeframe was difficult enough - including expatriate voters would be like organizing two. She added that it was costly, technically difficult and prone to fraud - but they would do it if the government asked them to.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Go to Original
Suicide Bombers Hit Samarra
The Telegraph U.K.
Saturday 06 November 2004
Suicide bombers have struck four times in the Iraqi city of Samarra, killing at least 33 people and wounding 62.
Ten Iraqi officers died in the last of the blasts, after the suicide bomber drove his car into a police station.
Nine policemen were also among the 23 killed and 40 wounded in the first three explosions in the northern Iraqi city.
The attacks follow the continued bombardment of Fallujah overnight by American forces preparing for an offensive against rebel strongholds in the city.
The local commander of the Iraqi rapid reaction force was among the dead in the first two blasts and Samarra's mayor was wounded.
Reports say that the insurgents carried out simultaneous attacks on three police stations.
Meanwhile, an attack on an American convoy wounded 20 marines in Ramadi as fresh fighting erupted near the main highway leading north from Fallujah.
The Marines are expected to spearhead a major offensive against insurgents in both cities.
The overnight bombings in Fallujah are said to have destroyed dozens of houses and a medical warehouse.
Families fled the city by its only remaining exit to the northwest. All other roads have been cut by American forces.
Leaflets from the Americans ar reported to have warned residents to leave the city from which more than half of the 300,000 population are believed to have fled.
-------
Jump to TO Features for Sunday November 7, 2004
Battle Near, Iraqi Sunnis Make Offer
By Karl Vick
The Washington Post
Saturday 06 November 2004
Major shift includes new interest in vote.
Baghdad - As Marines step up preparations for military offensives on two major Iraqi cities, a number of Sunni Muslim leaders are forwarding a plan to establish the rule of law in those areas through peaceful means, with the promise of reducing the insurgency across a large swath of the country.
Some of the groups leading the bid have encouraged violent resistance in central, western and northern Iraq. The groups say they will withdraw their support for violence if Iraq's interim government can reassure Sunni leaders wary of national elections, which are scheduled for the end of January.
The Sunnis have proposed six measures, including a demand that U.S. forces remain confined to bases in the month before balloting. Such an ambitious demand, which some advocates acknowledge is not likely to be met and may be open to negotiation, represents a dramatic shift by Sunni groups opposed to the U.S. operation in Iraq.
Until now, groups such as the Association of Muslim Scholars, which supports the new proposal, had insisted that no election could be considered legitimate until Western troops left Iraq. The association has repeatedly threatened to call for an election boycott through the loudspeakers of Iraq's Sunni mosques, which the association represents.
"We took an initiative regarding the elections. It is being welcomed by the people on the boycott side," said Wamidh Nadhmi, a Baghdad University political science professor who is spokesman for the initiative. "They said that if such agreements could be met by the Americans, they could change to participation."
The U.S. Embassy in Baghdad offered no reaction to the proposal, which it received this week. A Western diplomat emphasized that any decision lay with Iraq's interim government.
In separate interviews, senior U.S. and Iraqi officials were privately skeptical of the overture and indicated it was unlikely to avert a military offensive on Fallujah and Ramadi, which commanders say could begin at any time.
"They don't seem to get it. The monopoly of power is over," said a senior Iraqi government official, referring to former President Saddam Hussein's Sunni-dominated government. "One wonders how representative these elements are of the mainstream Sunni population. They may represent nostalgia for the past, but for sure no realistic vision for the future."
Some former officials with experience in Iraq called the Sunni proposal a potential breakthrough that could avert not only an assault on Fallujah but also a violent aftermath, when insurgents might take the fight elsewhere.
"Most of what we've learned about insurgencies is that you don't defeat one through purely military means," said Larry Diamond, who served in the U.S.-led occupation authority. "When you try to do that, you may win the battle but lose the war. The insurgency in the Sunni heartland is now quite broad-based, and I don't think we're going to defeat the insurgency in this part of the country through purely military means. I think we're looking at a protracted insurgency which will get worse if we go through with elections" that many Sunnis boycott.
"These groups," Diamond said, "have to be given evidence that it's in their interests to participate in the electoral process."
U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan, in a letter to President Bush disclosed Friday, warned that an assault on Fallujah "would be very disruptive of Iraq's political transition."
"Persuading elements who are currently alienated from, or skeptical about, the transition process to compete politically is key to creating a political and security context that will inspire confidence among all Iraqis," Annan wrote.
Iraqi and American officials also cite the impending election as a reason to take military action. Fallujah has been controlled by insurgents since April. They also move freely in Ramadi, the provincial capital, 30 miles to the west. In most of the rest of the country, voter registration began this week, and officials say the legitimacy of an ostensibly nationwide ballot will be undermined if residents of the Sunni Triangle area cannot take part.
Iraq's Sunni Arab minority, geographically concentrated in the country's midsection, was favored under Hussein. But Sunnis were markedly under-represented on the Governing Council put in place by the U.S.-led occupation and in the interim government that took power from the council in late June.
Elections could correct the imbalance, but many observers note that the country's majority Shiite Muslim population - long disenfranchised and eager to claim elected office - is better organized, larger, and pressing every advantage. On Thursday, the electoral commission announced that Iraqis who live overseas will be allowed to vote. The controversial decision is seen as benefiting Shiites who fled into exile under Hussein.
Nadhmi, the professor, emphasized that the groups behind the overture, who gathered under the umbrella of the Iraqi National Founding Conference, include Shiites and Christians. But the bulk of the conference represents Sunni interests. They include the Iraqi Nationalist Party, which has pan-Arab roots; the Democratic Reform Party, dominated by members of Hussein's Baath Party exiled to Syria; and the Association of Muslim Scholars, which claims to represent every Sunni mosque in Iraq and has frequently endorsed calls for resistance.
"This initiative is very significant," said an official involved in establishing the transitional government, who asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the issue. "They're no longer saying, 'We're not participating because the country is occupied.' They're saying, 'The government is not right. The only way we can make it right is by elections.'
"If you look at their demands, they're not impossible. They are things that can be discussed."
Several of the demands are grounded in skepticism about Iraq's newly minted election commission, a low-profile agency established by U.S. and U.N. officials. The Sunni group says it wants the panel reconstituted with prominent Iraqi judges "known for their honesty," and it wants the panel's work supervised by election monitors from other Arab and Islamic countries.
The group also wants the repeal of election regulations barring senior Baathists from standing for office, saying international norms call for bans only on people convicted of crimes. Ayad Allawi, the interim prime minister, has reversed some elements of the "de-Baathification" program put in place by L. Paul Bremer, the administrator of the U.S.-led occupation authority, but the bar on candidacy remains.
"There's a possibility of a Baathist slate," conceded Diamond, the former occupation official. "Now, these are nasty people. But I'd rather have them running peacefully in the election and winning a few seats in parliament than paying people to plant [roadside bombs] for our troops."
Most difficult for Iraqi and U.S. officials is the demand that American and other foreign forces remain outside major cities for the month of January. Insecurity is a profound problem across Iraq, and Iraqi police and other forces have not proven themselves capable of bringing certain areas under control.
The picture is further complicated by the presence of foreign fighters intent on carrying out violent strikes. Despite strains with Iraqi insurgents motivated by nationalism, Fallujah residents have said the foreign fighters continue to blend among the indigenous resistance. Negotiations between Allawi's government and Fallujah leaders broke down over the city's inability or refusal to eject the fighters.
One advocate of the new initiative said Iraqi Sunnis would persuade the foreigners to leave, though it may take time. He said attacks on U.S. and Iraqi forces would dissipate sooner if significant numbers of former Baathists feel they have a stake in the "new Iraq."
"Everyone agrees they are the spinal cord of the insurgency, and these groups have moral authority over them," said the official, who was formerly involved in Iraq.
Diamond acknowledged the proposal carried risks and may arrive too late to dissuade U.S. and Iraqi officials "who think it's time to go in and kick some butt."
But he added, "If there's a chance that this could be the beginning of political transformation that could change the situation on the ground, I think we've got to take it. Especially since many of the foreign fighters are said to have left Fallujah."
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Go to Original
Annan Defends Letter Warning of Fallouja Risk
By Maggie Farley
The Los Angeles Times
Saturday 06 November 2004
United Nations - Despite accusations of interference, Secretary-General Kofi Annan said Friday that it was his duty to speak up about how an assault on Fallouja might increase insecurity and disrupt elections slated for January, though he recognized that the final decision belonged to Iraq.
"We know that obviously the Iraqi government is responsible for running its affairs. But we have the responsibility to assist and work with them on the elections, and so to express concern was our business," he told the Los Angeles Times. "It's not something that one should take as amiss."
Annan warned in a private letter sent this week to President Bush, British Prime Minister Tony Blair and interim Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi that a full-scale attack on Fallouja would fuel further divisions and instability in Iraq and undermine participation in the elections. He also expressed concern that an attack would cause more civilian casualties and short-circuit negotiations to get nationalists to join the political process.
British and American spokesmen said the decision to use force in Fallouja was in the hands of the Iraqi government. In Brussels, Allawi said he found that in the letter, Annan seemed "confused."
"I don't know what he means by 'not to attack,' or 'to attack,' " he told BBC radio. "What are the substitutes? I don't know what pressure he has to bear on the insurgents. If he can stop the insurgents from inflicting damage and killing Iraqis, then he is welcome."
The letter underlined a fundamental difference in philosophy between the U.N. and the U.S.-led coalition on how best to neutralize the insurgents and "win the hearts and minds" of Iraqis.
"This is a very difficult situation, and difficult choices have to be made," Annan said. "We have extremist terrorists who have created an impossible situation for the average Iraqi.... So I can understand the desire and concern to want to deal with these people. We are in a process where one wants to pacify these hotspots, but at the same time one also wants to woo all Iraqis to participate in the process to make it as inclusive as possible."
An attack on Fallouja that causes high civilian casualties may swing residents' sympathies to the side of the insurgents, and cut off any prospect of bringing more moderate Sunni Muslim leaders into the elections, Annan said.
The letter, though private, was another in a recent series of declarations from Annan that put the world organization at odds with Washington. In a September interview, Annan said he thought the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq without the Security Council's approval was "illegal." Annan also said recently that he thought the Iraq war did not make the world safer.
On Friday, he said that he congratulated President Bush on his electoral victory. But as much as the Bush administration may be frustrated by the U.N., officials at the world body are frustrated by its partnership of necessity. Just as the U.N. agreed to help rebuild a country from a war it didn't back, it now finds itself trying to help organize elections in a context it believes to be counterproductive. And while the organization is being asked to take on more responsibility to make elections work in Iraq, officials fear it may be blamed if elections fail.
At the same time, Allawi and other Iraqi leaders are critical of the U.N. for sending only a few dozen staffers to Iraq and then second-guessing the government's decisions from afar.
"The Iraqi sovereign government is dealing with a situation on the ground. They are probably the best judge of what is likely to work and what is not likely to work," said Iraq's ambassador to the U.N., Samir Shakir Mahmoud Sumaidy, who will meet with Annan on Monday to protest the letter.
On Friday, Annan lifted the 35-person limit on U.N. staffers to be sent to Iraq to help set up elections, but declined to say how many would be deployed or when, citing security concerns. Annan said that election preparations appeared to be on track and that the U.N. was committed to making the balloting happen on time, but said Friday that he and his election experts disagreed with Iraq's decision to allow its expatriates to vote in January.
Elections chief Carina Perelli told reporters that organizing one election within a tight timeframe was difficult enough - including expatriate voters would be like organizing two. She added that it was costly, technically difficult and prone to fraud - but they would do it if the government asked them to.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Go to Original
Suicide Bombers Hit Samarra
The Telegraph U.K.
Saturday 06 November 2004
Suicide bombers have struck four times in the Iraqi city of Samarra, killing at least 33 people and wounding 62.
Ten Iraqi officers died in the last of the blasts, after the suicide bomber drove his car into a police station.
Nine policemen were also among the 23 killed and 40 wounded in the first three explosions in the northern Iraqi city.
The attacks follow the continued bombardment of Fallujah overnight by American forces preparing for an offensive against rebel strongholds in the city.
The local commander of the Iraqi rapid reaction force was among the dead in the first two blasts and Samarra's mayor was wounded.
Reports say that the insurgents carried out simultaneous attacks on three police stations.
Meanwhile, an attack on an American convoy wounded 20 marines in Ramadi as fresh fighting erupted near the main highway leading north from Fallujah.
The Marines are expected to spearhead a major offensive against insurgents in both cities.
The overnight bombings in Fallujah are said to have destroyed dozens of houses and a medical warehouse.
Families fled the city by its only remaining exit to the northwest. All other roads have been cut by American forces.
Leaflets from the Americans ar reported to have warned residents to leave the city from which more than half of the 300,000 population are believed to have fled.
-------
Jump to TO Features for Sunday November 7, 2004