ODShowtime
11-18-2004, 08:28 AM
Kim References Softened in N.Korea; Experts Ask Why
Thu Nov 18, 2:12 AM ET World - Reuters
By Martin Nesirky
SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea seems to be softening its hitherto rigid personality cult around leader Kim Jong-il, experts on the reclusive communist state said Thursday -- although they were still unsure why the changes had been made.
Some diplomats in Pyongyang and experts in the South said this week portraits of Kim had been removed from some public places, starting as far back as September or even August.
Some visitors to the North have said fewer people wear lapel badges bearing Kim's image. Seoul's Yonhap news agency reported that Kim himself had ordered the portrait shift three weeks ago because he was concerned his image had been "lifted too high."
In Tokyo, a Japanese news agency said Thursday that North Korean media had dropped the most laudatory references to Kim in the Korean broadcasts and texts it monitors.
"Kim Jong-il is known to be a little bit skeptical in private about the personality cult. He doesn't buy into all the adulation," said Michael Breen, author of a biography of Kim. "But what's prompted it? Who knows?"
Some people contacted in the North say there is no change.
With information tightly controlled, outside experts place emphasis on reading between the lines much as Kremlinologists did in the Soviet era, trying to divine the workings of the elite.
In this contemporary conundrum, analysts are advancing theories that range from a power struggle to the desire to avoid the fate of Romanian leader Nicolae Ceausescu, shot in December 1989 as communist rule ended in Eastern Europe.
Other theories include illness, Chinese impatience or an attempt by Kim to signal there will be no further dynastic succession. Kim succeeded his father, Kim Il-sung, in 1994.
"It may be an attempt to distance the country from the international image of worshipping a cult figure," said Koh Yu-hwan, a professor and leading expert on Kim at Seoul's Dongguk University. "The conditions in the North are not good, and there is a greater scrutiny also."
"BRILLIANT COMMANDER"
Breen said it was too early to say what was behind the strategy, but it could be an attempt to deflect personal blame for the country's ills upwards to his late father. But Breen said he would like to see more evidence of the changes.
Noriyuki Suzuki, chief analyst at the Tokyo-based Radiopress agency, said that instead of being referred to as "dear leader of our party and our people" as had been customary, Kim Jong-il was being called by his job titles.
"It's still hard to say, but taken in context with the reports about the portraits, this dropping of the most laudatory title may be an attempt by Kim to play down his cult of personality," Suzuki said.
Yet the apparent curtailment of this cult did not suggest a major change in the power structure, he said. Others agreed.
"There has been an absence of the 'great leader' reference in the past. It has been across the different North Korean media. We don't see this as a sign of a significant change," said a Unification Ministry official who monitors North Korean media.
"There are maybe hundreds of different combinations of words used to refer to Kim Jong-il," the official said.
KCNA published a report Thursday, for example, referring to the North's people holding "in high esteem the brilliant commander of the Songun revolution at the head of the nation." Songun is Kim's policy of giving the military top priority.
An official at the South's National Intelligence Service said the spy agency was looking into the portrait reports.
"On the titles, we don't see that there are abnormal signs inside the North," said the intelligence official.
Koh said North Korea faced a range of problems from the stalled six-party talks over its nuclear ambitions and Iran's own shift to try to resolve a similar crisis to inflation and the military's apparent increased influence.
"There's a burden in holding yourself up as the absolute figure," he said. "You can't afford to have mistakes or else you're going to have people start questioning your leadership."
Breen said the reports should be seen in the context of possible Chinese impatience with the North. German human rights activist Norbert Vollertsen, who worked as a doctor in the North, agreed that Kim could be seeking to avoid a Ceausescu-like fate.
"But maybe there is something more serious going on: China wants to get rid of Kim Jong-il and wants to secure its control of North Korea," he said. "The 100,000 Chinese soldiers at the border are not waiting for North Korean refugees." (Additional reporting by Elaine Lies in Tokyo and Jack Kim in Seoul)
It would be nice to not have to worry so much about this mis-guided asshole
Thu Nov 18, 2:12 AM ET World - Reuters
By Martin Nesirky
SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea seems to be softening its hitherto rigid personality cult around leader Kim Jong-il, experts on the reclusive communist state said Thursday -- although they were still unsure why the changes had been made.
Some diplomats in Pyongyang and experts in the South said this week portraits of Kim had been removed from some public places, starting as far back as September or even August.
Some visitors to the North have said fewer people wear lapel badges bearing Kim's image. Seoul's Yonhap news agency reported that Kim himself had ordered the portrait shift three weeks ago because he was concerned his image had been "lifted too high."
In Tokyo, a Japanese news agency said Thursday that North Korean media had dropped the most laudatory references to Kim in the Korean broadcasts and texts it monitors.
"Kim Jong-il is known to be a little bit skeptical in private about the personality cult. He doesn't buy into all the adulation," said Michael Breen, author of a biography of Kim. "But what's prompted it? Who knows?"
Some people contacted in the North say there is no change.
With information tightly controlled, outside experts place emphasis on reading between the lines much as Kremlinologists did in the Soviet era, trying to divine the workings of the elite.
In this contemporary conundrum, analysts are advancing theories that range from a power struggle to the desire to avoid the fate of Romanian leader Nicolae Ceausescu, shot in December 1989 as communist rule ended in Eastern Europe.
Other theories include illness, Chinese impatience or an attempt by Kim to signal there will be no further dynastic succession. Kim succeeded his father, Kim Il-sung, in 1994.
"It may be an attempt to distance the country from the international image of worshipping a cult figure," said Koh Yu-hwan, a professor and leading expert on Kim at Seoul's Dongguk University. "The conditions in the North are not good, and there is a greater scrutiny also."
"BRILLIANT COMMANDER"
Breen said it was too early to say what was behind the strategy, but it could be an attempt to deflect personal blame for the country's ills upwards to his late father. But Breen said he would like to see more evidence of the changes.
Noriyuki Suzuki, chief analyst at the Tokyo-based Radiopress agency, said that instead of being referred to as "dear leader of our party and our people" as had been customary, Kim Jong-il was being called by his job titles.
"It's still hard to say, but taken in context with the reports about the portraits, this dropping of the most laudatory title may be an attempt by Kim to play down his cult of personality," Suzuki said.
Yet the apparent curtailment of this cult did not suggest a major change in the power structure, he said. Others agreed.
"There has been an absence of the 'great leader' reference in the past. It has been across the different North Korean media. We don't see this as a sign of a significant change," said a Unification Ministry official who monitors North Korean media.
"There are maybe hundreds of different combinations of words used to refer to Kim Jong-il," the official said.
KCNA published a report Thursday, for example, referring to the North's people holding "in high esteem the brilliant commander of the Songun revolution at the head of the nation." Songun is Kim's policy of giving the military top priority.
An official at the South's National Intelligence Service said the spy agency was looking into the portrait reports.
"On the titles, we don't see that there are abnormal signs inside the North," said the intelligence official.
Koh said North Korea faced a range of problems from the stalled six-party talks over its nuclear ambitions and Iran's own shift to try to resolve a similar crisis to inflation and the military's apparent increased influence.
"There's a burden in holding yourself up as the absolute figure," he said. "You can't afford to have mistakes or else you're going to have people start questioning your leadership."
Breen said the reports should be seen in the context of possible Chinese impatience with the North. German human rights activist Norbert Vollertsen, who worked as a doctor in the North, agreed that Kim could be seeking to avoid a Ceausescu-like fate.
"But maybe there is something more serious going on: China wants to get rid of Kim Jong-il and wants to secure its control of North Korea," he said. "The 100,000 Chinese soldiers at the border are not waiting for North Korean refugees." (Additional reporting by Elaine Lies in Tokyo and Jack Kim in Seoul)
It would be nice to not have to worry so much about this mis-guided asshole