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01-02-2005, 01:41 AM
Updated: 06:21 PM EST
'Axis of Evil' Tops Bush's Second-Term Agenda
By ANNE GEARAN, AP
WASHINGTON (Jan. 1) - The three countries U.S. President George W. Bush called an "axis of evil" in his first term are at the top of his foreign policy to-do list in the second, along with a revitalized Mideast peace process and continued efforts to repair European alliances frayed by the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq.
War and reconstruction in Iraq are likely to continue to command more attention than any other international issues, at least for the first couple of years of Bush's new four-year term.
"The first priority has got to be getting Iraq right," said Max Boot, a conservative expert on national security at the Council on Foreign Relations.
NOT MUCH CHANCE OF THAT
But in the short run, the Bush administration also must juggle a complicated response to the devastation from tsunami across South Asia amid some complaints that the rich United States is not doing enough.
The massive relief effort - for which the United States increased its financial aid commitment Friday to $350 million - is drawing attention away from preparations for elections scheduled for Jan. 30 in Iraq, but the distraction will probably be brief.
Bush seemed to acknowledge that Iraq remains Job No. 1 during a year-end news conference.
Bush pledged to give it plenty of attention, saying in his weekly radio address Saturday that "we join the world in feeling enormous sadness over a great human tragedy."
On Iraq, the administration will get a real and perceived boost in credibility if elections scheduled there for the end of this month come off well, Boot and others said. Another round of elections is planned for later in 2005.
The alternative - protracted turmoil and violence that the United States cannot control - would complicate U.S. foreign policy far beyond Iraq.
"The odds are in our favor, but defeat is not out of the question," Boot said. "I think it's 60-40 in our direction."
60/40???? WHAT HAPPENED TO MISSION ACCOMPLISHED?
The announcement Thursday that Iraq's largest Sunni Muslim political party will not participate in the election won't help. The insurgency is believed to draw most of its support from Sunnis, who provided much of Saddam Hussein's former Baath Party membership.
Delaware Sen. Joe Biden, the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said he found the security situation in Iraq worse during a trip in December than on three previous visits since the invasion.
"We basically have no trouble achieving any military objective; we have considerable trouble securing it," Biden said.
American patience with the war will soon wear thin, and doing the reconstruction job correctly could mean U.S. troops stay in Iraq far longer than the public expects, he said. That leaves two options for Bush as he begins his second term, Biden said.
"We muddle through for the next year, declare victory after the second election and leave, and then there would be chaos," Biden said. Or, "level with the American people and tell them we're going to be muddling through for the next four years, or longer."
Bush seemed to acknowledge that Iraq remains Job No. 1 during a year-end news conference.
"We have a vital interest in the success of a free Iraq. You see, free societies do not export terror," Bush said.
REALLY??? NEWS TO ME.
Iran and North Korea, the other two countries in Bush's famous axis, loom nearly as large as Iraq. The United States suspects both countries are on their way to possessing nuclear weapons, or already have them. Both have repressive or authoritarian governments that could interfere with their neighbors or worse.
U.S. policy in all three nations is yoked to the continuing war on terrorism, since all three are potential training grounds or arsenals for terrorists.
Bush must decide how much to push Iran and North Korea diplomatically; how much to cooperate with European efforts to contain the nuclear threats; and how much to listen to hawks in his own government who may press for a limited airstrike against Iranian nuclear facilities.
At the same time, Bush may play a central role in the next phase of peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians. For now, Britain is taking that lead while all sides await the outcome of Jan. 9 elections to choose a successor to Yasser Arafat.
China will probably also be a major focus of U.S. economic and diplomatic efforts during Bush's next four years, and not just because of its vast size and resources. China could help contain or confront North Korea, said Patrick Cronin, a foreign policy analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Bush will also have a wary eye on Russia, the Cold War nemesis turned ally in the war on terror. The administration chose mostly to hold its tongue as Russian President Vladimir Putin consolidated political and economic power while muting independent media organizations, but may now adopt a harder line.
As prominent as Iraq appears in U.S. foreign policy now, it is useful to remember that priorities can change quickly.
Recall how different the world, and the U.S. perspective on it, seemed before the terror attacks of Sept. 11 2001, said Cronin.
"One single act of terrorism can completely change this agenda, one huge financial crisis, one assassination" of an ally, Cronin said. "It's incredible how you can go in with one agenda and come out with another. "
'Axis of Evil' Tops Bush's Second-Term Agenda
By ANNE GEARAN, AP
WASHINGTON (Jan. 1) - The three countries U.S. President George W. Bush called an "axis of evil" in his first term are at the top of his foreign policy to-do list in the second, along with a revitalized Mideast peace process and continued efforts to repair European alliances frayed by the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq.
War and reconstruction in Iraq are likely to continue to command more attention than any other international issues, at least for the first couple of years of Bush's new four-year term.
"The first priority has got to be getting Iraq right," said Max Boot, a conservative expert on national security at the Council on Foreign Relations.
NOT MUCH CHANCE OF THAT
But in the short run, the Bush administration also must juggle a complicated response to the devastation from tsunami across South Asia amid some complaints that the rich United States is not doing enough.
The massive relief effort - for which the United States increased its financial aid commitment Friday to $350 million - is drawing attention away from preparations for elections scheduled for Jan. 30 in Iraq, but the distraction will probably be brief.
Bush seemed to acknowledge that Iraq remains Job No. 1 during a year-end news conference.
Bush pledged to give it plenty of attention, saying in his weekly radio address Saturday that "we join the world in feeling enormous sadness over a great human tragedy."
On Iraq, the administration will get a real and perceived boost in credibility if elections scheduled there for the end of this month come off well, Boot and others said. Another round of elections is planned for later in 2005.
The alternative - protracted turmoil and violence that the United States cannot control - would complicate U.S. foreign policy far beyond Iraq.
"The odds are in our favor, but defeat is not out of the question," Boot said. "I think it's 60-40 in our direction."
60/40???? WHAT HAPPENED TO MISSION ACCOMPLISHED?
The announcement Thursday that Iraq's largest Sunni Muslim political party will not participate in the election won't help. The insurgency is believed to draw most of its support from Sunnis, who provided much of Saddam Hussein's former Baath Party membership.
Delaware Sen. Joe Biden, the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said he found the security situation in Iraq worse during a trip in December than on three previous visits since the invasion.
"We basically have no trouble achieving any military objective; we have considerable trouble securing it," Biden said.
American patience with the war will soon wear thin, and doing the reconstruction job correctly could mean U.S. troops stay in Iraq far longer than the public expects, he said. That leaves two options for Bush as he begins his second term, Biden said.
"We muddle through for the next year, declare victory after the second election and leave, and then there would be chaos," Biden said. Or, "level with the American people and tell them we're going to be muddling through for the next four years, or longer."
Bush seemed to acknowledge that Iraq remains Job No. 1 during a year-end news conference.
"We have a vital interest in the success of a free Iraq. You see, free societies do not export terror," Bush said.
REALLY??? NEWS TO ME.
Iran and North Korea, the other two countries in Bush's famous axis, loom nearly as large as Iraq. The United States suspects both countries are on their way to possessing nuclear weapons, or already have them. Both have repressive or authoritarian governments that could interfere with their neighbors or worse.
U.S. policy in all three nations is yoked to the continuing war on terrorism, since all three are potential training grounds or arsenals for terrorists.
Bush must decide how much to push Iran and North Korea diplomatically; how much to cooperate with European efforts to contain the nuclear threats; and how much to listen to hawks in his own government who may press for a limited airstrike against Iranian nuclear facilities.
At the same time, Bush may play a central role in the next phase of peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians. For now, Britain is taking that lead while all sides await the outcome of Jan. 9 elections to choose a successor to Yasser Arafat.
China will probably also be a major focus of U.S. economic and diplomatic efforts during Bush's next four years, and not just because of its vast size and resources. China could help contain or confront North Korea, said Patrick Cronin, a foreign policy analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Bush will also have a wary eye on Russia, the Cold War nemesis turned ally in the war on terror. The administration chose mostly to hold its tongue as Russian President Vladimir Putin consolidated political and economic power while muting independent media organizations, but may now adopt a harder line.
As prominent as Iraq appears in U.S. foreign policy now, it is useful to remember that priorities can change quickly.
Recall how different the world, and the U.S. perspective on it, seemed before the terror attacks of Sept. 11 2001, said Cronin.
"One single act of terrorism can completely change this agenda, one huge financial crisis, one assassination" of an ally, Cronin said. "It's incredible how you can go in with one agenda and come out with another. "