PDA

View Full Version : We Don't Have the Intelligence on Iran



Nickdfresh
02-12-2005, 07:06 AM
February 12, 2005

CIA Operation in Iran Failed When Spies Were Exposed

By Greg Miller, LA Times Staff Writer (http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-cia12feb12.story)

WASHINGTON — Dozens of CIA informants in Iran were executed or imprisoned in the late 1980s or early 1990s after their secret communications with the agency were uncovered by the government, according to former CIA officials who discussed the episode after aspects of it were disclosed during a recent congressional hearing.

As many as 50 Iranian citizens on the CIA's payroll were "rolled up" in the failed operation, said the former officials, who described the events as a major setback in spying on a regime that remains one of the most difficult targets for U.S. intelligence.

The disclosures underscore the stakes confronting the CIA and its informants as the United States is under pressure to produce better intelligence on Iran and especially its nuclear activities. The Bush administration has indicated that preventing Iran from obtaining an atomic weapon will be a priority of the president's second term.

Like Iraq before the U.S. invasion in 2003, Iran is regarded as a "denied" territory by U.S. intelligence, meaning that the CIA has no official station inside the country and is largely dependent on recruiting sources outside the Islamic Republic's borders.

Details of the setback were first outlined Feb. 2 by former Pentagon advisor Richard N. Perle in testimony before the House Intelligence Committee. During a hearing on security threats, Perle was critical of U.S. intelligence capabilities and cited the crackdown on American sources in Iran as an example of the failures that have beset U.S. espionage in the Mideast.

Perle referred to the "terrible setback that we suffered in Iran a few years ago when in a display of unbelievable, careless management we put pressure on agents operating in Iran to report with greater frequency and didn't provide improved communications."

When the CIA's sources stepped up their reporting, "the Iranian intelligence authorities quickly saw the surge in traffic and, as I understand it, virtually our entire network in Iran was wiped out."

Former CIA officials familiar with the matter confirmed portions of Perle's account and provided additional details. But they said the incident occurred in the late 1980s or early 1990s, not "a few years ago," as Perle suggested, and that it was not clear that the informants were exposed because of any pressure from the agency to file reports more frequently.

The CIA declined to comment, but a U.S. intelligence official rejected Perle's criticism of the agency's record in the Mideast as ill-informed and outdated.

"Intelligence methods evolve constantly," said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. "Trying to use these things from the past to make assertions about the present is in this case ill-advised."

In a phone interview, Perle acknowledged that he had "a poor sense of time" concerning the events he described and was uncertain about details.

"I don't recall the details, or the mechanism by which the [Iranian agents] were communicating," Perle said. "What I was told was that our entire network was destroyed" and that as many as 40 of the informants were executed.

According to a former CIA official who served in the Mideast at the time, the Iranian informants were part of a network of spies that was run by CIA officers based at the agency's station in Frankfurt, Germany.

The Iranian spies communicated with the agency "via secret writing," the former official said, referring to messages printed in invisible ink on the backs of letters that were mailed out of the country. The spies received messages in the same fashion from a CIA officer in Frankfurt.

It is not clear what aroused the Iranian government's suspicion, "but all of the letters went to a handful of addresses in Germany," the former CIA official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

"Once they had one agent and they recovered the letters that had come in to him and found out where he was sending his letters out, they quickly identified others who fit that profile," the former official said.

As many as 50 spies were exposed. They included members of Iran's military and were providing information on an array of activities, the former official said.

Iran was a major intelligence priority for the United States at the time. During the 1980s, the U.S. was supporting Iraq in its war against Iran. The regime in Tehran, the capital, had also launched its clandestine nuclear program by then, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations' nuclear watchdog group.

The CIA's Iran operation in Frankfurt was disbanded in the mid-1990s, and portions of it were relocated to Los Angeles, where the CIA still seeks to capitalize on Southern California's large Iranian population by cultivating sources who travel to the country or have relatives there.

Although the spies in Iran were using an old form of secret communication, even high-technology systems have proved vulnerable. During the 2003 war in Iraq, the CIA received regular reports from 87 informants whom it had equipped with satellite telephones, according to an account of the operation in journalist Bob Woodward's recent book, "Plan of Attack."

Calls from sources close to Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein provided the intelligence that led to the first strike of the war, when the United States launched missiles at the Dora Farm compound in Baghdad because of reports that Hussein and his sons were staying the night there. Weeks later, it became clear that Hussein and his sons had survived the strike, and the still-standing Iraqi government banned the use of satellite phones.

Perle, who was an assistant Defense secretary in the Reagan administration and was a Pentagon advisor who advocated the invasion of Iraq, is a longtime critic of the CIA. He said he mentioned the Iranian operation to highlight how the agency had struggled in the region.

"I think we're in very bad shape in Iran," Perle said during his testimony.

He also complained that CIA leaders had not been held accountable and noted that the official who had been in charge of the exposed Iran operation was later promoted.

Perle declined to name the individual, but other sources said it was Stephen Richter, who was appointed head of the agency's Near East division in 1994. He has since retired and could not be reached for comment.

Several senior CIA officials who served under George J. Tenet, who stepped down as the agency's director last year, said they were unaware of the matter. One reason could be the length of time that has elapsed since the intelligence breakdown in Iran.

In a recent unclassified report, the CIA says it believes Iran is "vigorously" pursuing chemical, biological and nuclear weapons and that its civilian nuclear development program is a cover for efforts to build a bomb. Iran has repeatedly denied the accusation.

Such assessments also are being greeted with some skepticism abroad and in the United States, largely because the CIA's prewar estimates of Iraqi stockpiles of banned weapons have been proved wrong.

Iran's discovery of CIA informants was reminiscent of the exposure of U.S. agents in Iraq a decade ago. In Iraq, hundreds of U.S. informants and sympathizers are believed to have been executed by Hussein, many of them after a CIA-backed coup plan unraveled in the mid-'90s.

The Senate Intelligence Committee recently disclosed that it was launching a "preemptive" review of assessments on Iran to avoid any repetition of the intelligence failures in Iraq.

Inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency have exposed a long-hidden Iranian program to produce fissile material that could be used for nuclear weapons. But IAEA officials believe that Tehran has frozen the program. Iran maintains that its nuclear activities are designed to produce energy, not an arsenal.

Nickdfresh
02-13-2005, 02:08 AM
U.S. Uses Drones to Probe Iran For Arms
Surveillance Flights Are Sent From Iraq

By Dafna Linzer
Washington Post (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A19820-2005Feb12.html) Staff Writer
Sunday, February 13, 2005; Page A01

The Bush administration has been flying surveillance drones over Iran for nearly a year to seek evidence of nuclear weapons programs and detect weaknesses in air defenses, according to three U.S. officials with detailed knowledge of the secret effort.

The small, pilotless planes, penetrating Iranian airspace from U.S. military facilities in Iraq, use radar, video, still photography and air filters designed to pick up traces of nuclear activity to gather information that is not accessible by satellites, the officials said. The aerial espionage is standard in military preparations for an eventual air attack and is also employed as a tool for intimidation.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said the United States, concerned Iran is covertly developing nuclear arms, has no plans to attack "at this time."

The Iranian government, using Swiss channels in the absence of diplomatic relations with Washington, formally protested the incursions as illegal, according to Iranian, European and U.S. officials, all speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter.

A U.S. official acknowledged that drones were being used but said the Iranian complaint focused on aircraft overflights by the Pentagon. The United States, the official said, replied with a denial that manned U.S. aircraft had crossed Iran's borders. The drones were first spotted by dozens of Iranian civilians and set off a national newspaper frenzy in late December over whether the country was being visited by UFOs.

The surveillance has been conducted as the Bush administration sharpens its anti-Iran rhetoric and the U.S. intelligence community searches for information to support President Bush's assertion that Tehran is trying to build nuclear weapons.

The Washington Post reported Saturday that the intelligence community is conducting a broad review of its Iran assessments, including a new look at information about the country's nuclear program, according to administration officials and congressional sources. A similar review, called a National Intelligence Estimate, formed an important part of the administration's case for war against Iraq.

Bush's senior advisers, including Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld, said last week that a U.S. attack on Iran is not imminent but that the option remains available.

In late December, Iranians living along the Caspian Sea and on the Iraq border began reporting sightings of red flashes in the sky, streaks of green and blue and low, racing lights that disappeared moments after being spotted. The Iranian space agency was called in to investigate, astronomy experts were consulted, and an agreement was quickly signed with Russian officials eager to learn more about the phenomena.

But the mystery was laid to rest by Iranian air force commanders, some of whom were trained more than 25 years ago in the United States and are familiar with U.S. tactics. They identified the drones early last month, a senior Iranian official said, and Iran's National Security Council decided not to engage the pilotless aircraft.

That action is considered a major policy decision and reflects Iran's belief that an attack is unlikely anytime soon.

The U.S. National Security Agency, which conducts and manages overseas eavesdropping operations, said it had no information to provide on the reconnaissance missions over Iran.

The drones are one of several tools being used to gather information on Iran's nuclear programs and its military capabilities, U.S. officials said. The United States believes Iran is using its nuclear energy program to conceal an effort to manufacture nuclear weapons, but no one has found definitive evidence to substantiate that.

Iran is engaged in diplomacy with France, Britain and Germany aimed at ending a 2 1/2-year crisis over Tehran's nuclear ambitions that began when Iranian defectors exposed a large uranium enrichment facility in August 2002. Inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency have been in and out of the country since then investigating nuclear facilities.

U.S. officials confirmed that the drones were deployed along Iran's northern and western borders, first in April 2004, and again in December and January. A former U.S. official with direct knowledge of earlier phases of the operation said the U.S. intelligence community began using Iraq as a base to spy on Iran shortly after taking Baghdad in early April 2003. Drones have been flown over Iran since then, the former official said, but the missions became more frequent last year.

The spring 2004 flyovers led Iran's military to step up its defenses around nuclear facilities in the southern cities of Isfahan and Bushehr, where locals first reported the UFO sighting. Defenses were added around those sites and others last month, Iranian officials said, after it became clear they were being observed by the drones.

A Dec. 25 article in the Etemaad newspaper, translated from Farsi by the CIA, reported on "the presence of unidentified flying objects in the Bushehr sky on a number of occasions, particularly in recent weeks." After Moscow experts were called in, the Russian daily Pravda reported on "UFO mania" sweeping Iran.

One U.S. intelligence official said different types of drones with varying capabilities have been deployed over Iran. Some fly several hundred feet above the earth, getting a closer view of ground activities than satellites, and are equipped with air filter technology that captures particles and delivers them back to base for analysis. Any presence of plutonium, uranium or tritium could indicate nuclear work in the area where the samples were collected.

The last drone sightings were in mid-January, about the same time that Iran's National Security Council met in Tehran to discuss them, according to an Iranian official.

"It was clear to our air force that the entire intention here was to get us to turn on our radar," the official said.

That tactic, designed to contribute information to what the military calls an "enemy order of battle," was used by the U.S. military in the Korean and Vietnam wars, against the Soviets and the Chinese and in both Iraq wars.

"By coaxing the Iranians to turn on their radar, we can learn all about their defense systems, including the frequencies they are operating on, the range of their radar and, of course, where their weaknesses lie," said Thomas Keaney, a retired U.S. Air Force colonel and executive director of the Foreign Policy Institute at Johns Hopkins University.

But it did not work. "The United States must have forgotten that they trained half our guys," the Iranian official said. After a briefing by their air force three weeks ago, Iran's national security officials ordered their forces not to turn on the radar or come into contact with the drones in any way.

"Our decision was: Don't engage," the Iranian official said. Leaving the radar off deprives U.S. forces of vital information about the country's air defense system, but it also makes it harder for Iran to tell if an attack is underway.

The Iranian government lodged a formal protest through the Swiss Embassy in Tehran, which passed it on to the State Department, a Bush administration official said. The complaint was then forwarded to the Pentagon and to senior Bush administration officials, the official said.

Asked last Sunday about Iran, Rumsfeld told ABC's "This Week" that he had no knowledge of U.S. military activities in Iran. Rice, who helped plan the Iraq war, said during her European trip last week that an assault on Iran was not on the agenda "at this time."

So far, the drones have added little information to Iran's nuclear file, according to U.S. intelligence officials familiar with the mission.

Estimates vary on when Tehran could build a nuclear weapon using material from its energy program. Iran has agreed to stop enriching uranium, a key ingredient for a bomb, while it is engaged in talks with Europe. Mohamed ElBaradei, the director general of the IAEA, said if Iran resumes that work, it could have enough highly enriched uranium for a bomb within two years and could complete a weapon within three years.

Iranian officials have said repeatedly that their country has no intention of building nuclear weapons.

Staff writer Glenn Kessler contributed to this report.

Nickdfresh
02-13-2005, 11:01 AM
Originally posted by Nickdfresh
U.S. Uses Drones...

By Dafna Linzer


That tactic...calls an "enemy order of battle," was used by the U.S. military...

"By coaxing the Iranians to turn on their radar, we can learn all about their defense systems, including the frequencies they are operating on, the range of their radar and, of course, where their weaknesses lie...But it did not work.

"The United States must have forgotten that they trained half our guys," the Iranian official said. After a briefing by their air force three weeks ago, Iran's national security officials ordered their forces not to turn on the radar or come into contact with the drones in any way.



Hmmm...Does any Neo Con (Elvis) still believe that Iran will be a pushover, and their Gov't will come tumbling down after a few U.S./Israeli airstrikes?

LoungeMachine
02-13-2005, 11:03 AM
Dont expect ELVIS to do anything other than roll his eyes, Nick.

We all see where this is heading......

Nickdfresh
02-14-2005, 11:13 AM
Conflicting word on U.S. drones over Iran

Senators call for increased vigilance on Tehran

Monday, February 14, 2005 Posted: 2:42 AM EST (0742 GMT)
This satellite image shows a suspected Iranian nuclear-related facility.


WASHINGTON (CNN) -- U.S. sources have given conflicting signals about the veracity of a Washington Post report that said America has been using unmanned flights for the past year to gather intelligence on Iran's nuclear capability.

Three senior U.S. military officials disputed the article Sunday, but two well-placed U.S. government sources confirmed it, saying that the overflights have indeed been taking place.

The newspaper -- citing three U.S. officials -- reported that Washington has been using drones to look for evidence of nuclear weapons programs and to "detect weaknesses in air defenses."

Neither the CIA nor the Pentagon would comment Sunday on the apparent discrepancy.

The Bush administration has been working to build international pressure on Iran to halt its nuclear program, arguing that the country is operating a clandestine weapons program.

Iran has insisted that its nuclear program is designed for civilian energy production only.

Because U.S. intelligence on Iraq's alleged weapons of mass destruction turned out to be wrong, some critics of the Bush administration have questioned whether U.S. intelligence on Iran can be trusted.

Britain, France and Germany have been holding talks with Tehran in an attempt to have Iran's uranium-enrichment program permanently frozen. The United States has said it would work with European countries in their efforts.

Meanwhile, Sen. Pat Roberts, chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said on CNN's "Late Edition" Sunday that the United States is not flying drones over Iran.

But the Kansas Republican did say that unmanned aerial vehicles -- or UAVs -- have the capability to collect such intelligence.

"I think we ought to be using all of our capabilities in terms of collecting the intelligence we need," said Roberts, who recently commissioned his staff to conduct a review of U.S. intelligence on Iran, in order to avoid the kind of faulty assessments that preceded the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq.

"It was a world community intelligence failure; we can't let that happen again," Roberts said.

Meanwhile, another U.S. senator said Iran was a greater problem than Iraq was and America needed to have "all eyes on the ground that we can possibly get."

"They are a dangerous country," said Sen. Jay Rockefeller, the Intelligence Committee's ranking Democrat.

"They're much more sophisticated than Iraq."

Several U.S. military officials said they have no information on any U.S. operations over Iran.

A senior military official with knowledge of the region told CNN last week that there were no aircraft, including UAVs, flying over Iranian airspace.

He said no U.S. military aircraft were violating Iranian airspace and that the United States was keeping its assets 12 miles (19 kilometers) off Iranian shores.

In January, the Pentagon criticized an article by investigative journalist Seymour Hersh that says the United States has been carrying out reconnaissance missions in Iran for possible airstrikes as soon as this summer. (Full story)

In December, the Iranian newspaper "Etemaad" reported Iranian citizens' apparent sightings of unidentified flying objects.

People said they saw illuminated objects flying over eastern and western parts of Iran, including the cities of Bushehr and Esfahan.

The objects were flying at an altitude of about 30,000 feet, the report said.



CNN's Wolf Blitzer and Barbara Starr in Washington, and journalist Shirzad Bozorgmehr in Tehran, contributed to this report.
Story Tools
____
____

ELVIS
02-14-2005, 11:18 AM
Originally posted by Nickdfresh
Hmmm...Does any Neo Con (Elvis) still believe that Iran will be a pushover, and their Gov't will come tumbling down after a few U.S./Israeli airstrikes?

No way...

Iran has a huge army, and their military capabilities are unknown...

Before any decision is made on Iran, there needs to be CONCRETE EVIDENCE on whatever they may or may not be doing...

The problem is that Israel may decide to strike Iran before the intelligence gathering is complete...

Nickdfresh
02-14-2005, 11:37 AM
Originally posted by ELVIS
No way...

Iran has a huge army, and their military capabilities are unknown...

Before any decision is made on Iran, there needs to be CONCRETE EVIDENCE on whatever they may or may not be doing...

The problem is that Israel may decide to strike Iran before the intelligence gathering is complete...

The Israelis won't strike. They struck Iraq in 81' because they looked more invincible then. They were also afraid that Saddam Hussein would emerge as a "Pan-Arab" leader.

The Iranians are not Arabs, and even if they do get the bomb, Israel may have about 20 or 30 of them.