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by Paul Charchian - Publisher, Fanball.com
Thursday, February 24, 2005
At some point, the Randy Moss trade will affect every 2005 fantasy football league; keeper leaguers need to sort out this trade pronto. There's a lot of star power affected by this trade, as Minnesota's high-powered offense is forced to adjust, and Oakland suddenly becomes intriguing. So, with an eye on keeper leagues, here's my assessment of how the trade affects notable players' keeper value.
Helped
Kerry Collins: Despite his age, Collins' keeper value jumps with the Moss acquisition. Both Moss and Porter are under long-term contracts. Collins' arm is strong enough to allow for the long pass, Moss' forte, and he's experienced enough to find Porter in single-coverage. Collins will appear as a top-10 quarterback in most rankings this preseason.
Nate Burleson: Burleson is the biggest X-factor of the group, especially since we don't know if Minnesota will actively attempt to find a replacement for Moss. He looked very good last year, and actually notched nine touchdowns while topping the 1,000 yard mark. Should he be required to be the team's top receiver, it is unclear if he'll be able to make the jump. If he can step up, his upside is huge. How huge? Surrounded by Minnesota's offensive talent, how about 15 scores per year huge? But plenty of capable number two receivers have tried and failed to succeed as a go-to guy (Johnnie Morton, James Thrash, Justin McCariens, and Peerless Price immediately come to mind). My feeling is that he's got a long career ahead of him.
All Vikings' running backs: Moss takes a lot of receptions with him to Oakland, so more plays will shift to the team's runners, both via the ground and air. Plus, Moss had been the team's first choice at the stripe. Now, the job will likely move to the team's runners.
No Change
Jerry Porter: It's a mixed bag for Porter. On one hand, he'll never be the team's go-to receiver, which limits his upside to around 10-12 touchdowns max per season. However, playing opposite Randy Moss opens the possibilities of routine single-coverage, meaning he should post at least 6-8 touchdowns every year.
Hurt
Randy Moss: A fresh start provides plenty of positives for Moss, but they get outweighed by the negatives. Moss will certainly have a chip on his shoulder, and he'll probably be a good soldier—for a while anyway. Kerry Collins has a strong arm, but make no mistake, he's no Culpepper. Further muddying the waters is Jerry Porter who will siphon off receptions and scores for years. Also of concern to keeper leaguers is Collins' age. 2005 will be his 11th year of service, so he may not be effective for much longer, and injury is a growing concern.
Daunte Culpepper: Obviously, losing Moss hurts Culpepper's fantasy value, but not as much as people might think at first blush. Nate Burleson is emerging as a capable player, and the Vikings are loaded with other receiving options, including all of their tight ends and running backs. Plus, Minnesota will likely/hopefully signing a notable free agent receiver, or use their newly-acquired seventh-overall draft pick on one. If the Vikings' (foolishly) choose not to improve their receivers, then his value drops much farther.
Doug Gabriel: Gabriel demonstrated flashes of competence, and the youngster was expected to battle for a starting job. Now, he's stuck behind Moss and Porter, and unlikely get enough playing time to make an impact.
Ronald Curry: See Gabriel.
Thursday, February 24, 2005
At some point, the Randy Moss trade will affect every 2005 fantasy football league; keeper leaguers need to sort out this trade pronto. There's a lot of star power affected by this trade, as Minnesota's high-powered offense is forced to adjust, and Oakland suddenly becomes intriguing. So, with an eye on keeper leagues, here's my assessment of how the trade affects notable players' keeper value.
Helped
Kerry Collins: Despite his age, Collins' keeper value jumps with the Moss acquisition. Both Moss and Porter are under long-term contracts. Collins' arm is strong enough to allow for the long pass, Moss' forte, and he's experienced enough to find Porter in single-coverage. Collins will appear as a top-10 quarterback in most rankings this preseason.
Nate Burleson: Burleson is the biggest X-factor of the group, especially since we don't know if Minnesota will actively attempt to find a replacement for Moss. He looked very good last year, and actually notched nine touchdowns while topping the 1,000 yard mark. Should he be required to be the team's top receiver, it is unclear if he'll be able to make the jump. If he can step up, his upside is huge. How huge? Surrounded by Minnesota's offensive talent, how about 15 scores per year huge? But plenty of capable number two receivers have tried and failed to succeed as a go-to guy (Johnnie Morton, James Thrash, Justin McCariens, and Peerless Price immediately come to mind). My feeling is that he's got a long career ahead of him.
All Vikings' running backs: Moss takes a lot of receptions with him to Oakland, so more plays will shift to the team's runners, both via the ground and air. Plus, Moss had been the team's first choice at the stripe. Now, the job will likely move to the team's runners.
No Change
Jerry Porter: It's a mixed bag for Porter. On one hand, he'll never be the team's go-to receiver, which limits his upside to around 10-12 touchdowns max per season. However, playing opposite Randy Moss opens the possibilities of routine single-coverage, meaning he should post at least 6-8 touchdowns every year.
Hurt
Randy Moss: A fresh start provides plenty of positives for Moss, but they get outweighed by the negatives. Moss will certainly have a chip on his shoulder, and he'll probably be a good soldier—for a while anyway. Kerry Collins has a strong arm, but make no mistake, he's no Culpepper. Further muddying the waters is Jerry Porter who will siphon off receptions and scores for years. Also of concern to keeper leaguers is Collins' age. 2005 will be his 11th year of service, so he may not be effective for much longer, and injury is a growing concern.
Daunte Culpepper: Obviously, losing Moss hurts Culpepper's fantasy value, but not as much as people might think at first blush. Nate Burleson is emerging as a capable player, and the Vikings are loaded with other receiving options, including all of their tight ends and running backs. Plus, Minnesota will likely/hopefully signing a notable free agent receiver, or use their newly-acquired seventh-overall draft pick on one. If the Vikings' (foolishly) choose not to improve their receivers, then his value drops much farther.
Doug Gabriel: Gabriel demonstrated flashes of competence, and the youngster was expected to battle for a starting job. Now, he's stuck behind Moss and Porter, and unlikely get enough playing time to make an impact.
Ronald Curry: See Gabriel.
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