Nickdfresh
04-16-2006, 07:43 PM
Political players wondering: Where's Rudy?
Supporters of the former New York City mayor expect him to seek the presidency in 2008, but the consensus is he's missing in action
By JERRY ZREMSKI
NEWS NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT
4/11/2006
http://www.buffalonews.com/graphics/2006/04/11/actualsize/0411a1poll.jpg
WASHINGTON - Admirers of Rudolph W. Giuliani expect him to run for president in 2008, but that leaves political players across the nation asking an important question:
Where is he?
"When you talk to the Republican network in Washington, the consensus is that Rudy is MIA," said Nelson Warfield, a GOP consultant who served as Bob Dole's press secretary in his 1996 run for the White House. "He is making none of the traditional moves you expect a candidate to make."
Political operatives in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina - key early states in the nomination process - agreed that the former New York City mayor has skipped the early steps that other potential candidates have taken.
"With all the other potential candidates, I can point you to a person here who's talked to the candidate, who's said, "Will you do something for me?' " said Dick Bennett, president of American Research Group, a polling firm in New Hampshire, home of the first presidential primary. "With Giuliani, there isn't any of that."
While acknowledging that Giuliani's liberal views on social issues could prove unpopular with the Republican base, GOP insiders expect Giuliani to run, as does Fred Siegel, author of "Prince of the City," a 2005 biography of the former mayor.
And by some measures, he looks like a strong candidate. Four years removed from elective office and his heroic leadership of New York City after the 9/11 terror attacks, Giuliani remains very popular nationwide.
Last month, the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute asked 1,900 Americans how they felt about a dozen major political figures. About 63.5 percent said they felt warmly about Giuliani, putting him at the top of the list.
Giuliani made his mark as a no-nonsense manager who brought order to a city many had seen as ungovernable. And Siegel expects Giuliani to sell himself to voters nationwide as just that: a leader who could make the federal government work better.
No hurry to decide
"He's just not going to take the conventional route of speaking at every Lincoln Day dinner," said Siegel, who is well connected with the former mayor's inside circle.
Aides to the former mayor refused to return phone calls to discuss this story, but they told the New York Times last week that Giuliani was planning to campaign for Republican candidates this year, which could help set the groundwork for a future race.
Meanwhile, Giuliani told an audience in Oklahoma in late March that he wouldn't decide whether to run until after this November's elections.
He would start a presidential campaign with nearly universal name recognition, which puts him at or near the top of all the polls of possible GOP presidential nominees.
His popularity and the connections he made as New York mayor and as a highly paid management consultant would help him raise millions quickly for a presidential bid, political analysts said.
But Giuliani's challenges begin with the fact that voters in a handful of states get the first and most important chance to say whom their party should nominate.
In Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, potential candidates like Sen. John McCain of Arizona - widely viewed as the front-runner - have already been wooing the local politicos. Last weekend, for example, McCain did a town hall meeting with the local congressman in Keene, N.H., and he has fund-raisers set with politicians in Ohio, Minnesota and Iowa later this week.
Meanwhile, Giuliani has been working occasional political events around paid speaking engagements while running his business.
"Unfortunately, he's not done a lot of county party conventions or candidate fund raising," said Jay W. Ragley, political director for the South Carolina Republican Party. Appearing at such events "really does help raise a candidate's stock with the grass roots," Ragley said.
In Iowa, several potential GOP candidates including New York Gov. George E. Pataki have asked to meet with Steve Scheffler, president of the Iowa Christian Alliance. But Scheffler said he hasn't heard from Giuliani.
To be sure, Giuliani has shown some signs that he might be aiming for the White House.
He traveled to Florida in January to speak to about 2,000 people at an event sponsored by the Global Pastors Network, which consists primarily of evangelical Christians, a key component of the Republican base.
May 1, he will travel to Iowa site of the first presidential caucus and speak at a fund-raiser for the GOP candidate for governor.
The trouble is, Giuliani hasn't tried to win the support of the political operatives who put together local campaigns.
"At this point, candidates are starting to get commitments from key activists and strategists," said Jennifer E. Duffy, managing editor of the Cook Political Report, an online analysis of American politics. "If you wait too long to do that, there's going to be nobody left."
Liberal leanings
Then again, Giuliani might be wise to wait, said Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio. That's because as soon as Giuliani starts looking like a serious candidate, he will have to face his most daunting liability: his pro-choice, pro-gay rights, pro-gun control record.
Many Republicans may not know that side of Giuliani's record, but other candidates would be sure to publicize it if he starts looking like a serious challenger, Fabrizio said.
Those liberal social views probably would alienate evangelical Christians and doom Giuliani's candidacy, several sources said.
"I think any politician from the Northeast is going to have a difficult selling job to the rest of the Republican Party," said James Campbell, a political science professor at the University at Buffalo. "It's the social issues, but it's also a broader cultural difference."
Campbell dismisses polls that show Giuliani as co-front-runner with McCain. And Bennett, the New Hampshire pollster, has gone one step further.
He left Giuliani out of his February poll in the Granite State, which showed McCain in the lead with 41 percent of the likely Republican primary vote.
Why was Giuliani excluded?
"He has to do something here first," Bennett said.
Link (http://www.buffalonews.com/editorial/20060411/1017992.asp)
e-mail: jzremski@buffnews.com
Supporters of the former New York City mayor expect him to seek the presidency in 2008, but the consensus is he's missing in action
By JERRY ZREMSKI
NEWS NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT
4/11/2006
http://www.buffalonews.com/graphics/2006/04/11/actualsize/0411a1poll.jpg
WASHINGTON - Admirers of Rudolph W. Giuliani expect him to run for president in 2008, but that leaves political players across the nation asking an important question:
Where is he?
"When you talk to the Republican network in Washington, the consensus is that Rudy is MIA," said Nelson Warfield, a GOP consultant who served as Bob Dole's press secretary in his 1996 run for the White House. "He is making none of the traditional moves you expect a candidate to make."
Political operatives in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina - key early states in the nomination process - agreed that the former New York City mayor has skipped the early steps that other potential candidates have taken.
"With all the other potential candidates, I can point you to a person here who's talked to the candidate, who's said, "Will you do something for me?' " said Dick Bennett, president of American Research Group, a polling firm in New Hampshire, home of the first presidential primary. "With Giuliani, there isn't any of that."
While acknowledging that Giuliani's liberal views on social issues could prove unpopular with the Republican base, GOP insiders expect Giuliani to run, as does Fred Siegel, author of "Prince of the City," a 2005 biography of the former mayor.
And by some measures, he looks like a strong candidate. Four years removed from elective office and his heroic leadership of New York City after the 9/11 terror attacks, Giuliani remains very popular nationwide.
Last month, the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute asked 1,900 Americans how they felt about a dozen major political figures. About 63.5 percent said they felt warmly about Giuliani, putting him at the top of the list.
Giuliani made his mark as a no-nonsense manager who brought order to a city many had seen as ungovernable. And Siegel expects Giuliani to sell himself to voters nationwide as just that: a leader who could make the federal government work better.
No hurry to decide
"He's just not going to take the conventional route of speaking at every Lincoln Day dinner," said Siegel, who is well connected with the former mayor's inside circle.
Aides to the former mayor refused to return phone calls to discuss this story, but they told the New York Times last week that Giuliani was planning to campaign for Republican candidates this year, which could help set the groundwork for a future race.
Meanwhile, Giuliani told an audience in Oklahoma in late March that he wouldn't decide whether to run until after this November's elections.
He would start a presidential campaign with nearly universal name recognition, which puts him at or near the top of all the polls of possible GOP presidential nominees.
His popularity and the connections he made as New York mayor and as a highly paid management consultant would help him raise millions quickly for a presidential bid, political analysts said.
But Giuliani's challenges begin with the fact that voters in a handful of states get the first and most important chance to say whom their party should nominate.
In Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, potential candidates like Sen. John McCain of Arizona - widely viewed as the front-runner - have already been wooing the local politicos. Last weekend, for example, McCain did a town hall meeting with the local congressman in Keene, N.H., and he has fund-raisers set with politicians in Ohio, Minnesota and Iowa later this week.
Meanwhile, Giuliani has been working occasional political events around paid speaking engagements while running his business.
"Unfortunately, he's not done a lot of county party conventions or candidate fund raising," said Jay W. Ragley, political director for the South Carolina Republican Party. Appearing at such events "really does help raise a candidate's stock with the grass roots," Ragley said.
In Iowa, several potential GOP candidates including New York Gov. George E. Pataki have asked to meet with Steve Scheffler, president of the Iowa Christian Alliance. But Scheffler said he hasn't heard from Giuliani.
To be sure, Giuliani has shown some signs that he might be aiming for the White House.
He traveled to Florida in January to speak to about 2,000 people at an event sponsored by the Global Pastors Network, which consists primarily of evangelical Christians, a key component of the Republican base.
May 1, he will travel to Iowa site of the first presidential caucus and speak at a fund-raiser for the GOP candidate for governor.
The trouble is, Giuliani hasn't tried to win the support of the political operatives who put together local campaigns.
"At this point, candidates are starting to get commitments from key activists and strategists," said Jennifer E. Duffy, managing editor of the Cook Political Report, an online analysis of American politics. "If you wait too long to do that, there's going to be nobody left."
Liberal leanings
Then again, Giuliani might be wise to wait, said Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio. That's because as soon as Giuliani starts looking like a serious candidate, he will have to face his most daunting liability: his pro-choice, pro-gay rights, pro-gun control record.
Many Republicans may not know that side of Giuliani's record, but other candidates would be sure to publicize it if he starts looking like a serious challenger, Fabrizio said.
Those liberal social views probably would alienate evangelical Christians and doom Giuliani's candidacy, several sources said.
"I think any politician from the Northeast is going to have a difficult selling job to the rest of the Republican Party," said James Campbell, a political science professor at the University at Buffalo. "It's the social issues, but it's also a broader cultural difference."
Campbell dismisses polls that show Giuliani as co-front-runner with McCain. And Bennett, the New Hampshire pollster, has gone one step further.
He left Giuliani out of his February poll in the Granite State, which showed McCain in the lead with 41 percent of the likely Republican primary vote.
Why was Giuliani excluded?
"He has to do something here first," Bennett said.
Link (http://www.buffalonews.com/editorial/20060411/1017992.asp)
e-mail: jzremski@buffnews.com