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All the hype that the Democrats are going to retake control is slowly dwindling away. The problem is, if they don't take control, how will they blame that on President Bush this time? Rigged elections? Gasoline prices lowering? Capture of a major figure in Iraq or Afghanistan? Thwarted terror plot? I'm sure the libs will use more than one of those excuses and pin it on President Bush.
For Democrats’ Hopes, Less Promise in New York
By RAYMOND HERNANDEZ
Published: September 11, 2006
In a year when Democrats hope to take control of the House of Representatives, New York would appear to be fertile ground for toppling Republican incumbents. Democrats have a statewide edge in enrollment, and a popular incumbent, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, is at the top of the party’s ticket.
In fact, just a few months ago, Democrats envisioned significant gains in New York, perhaps picking up as many as four seats, possibly even five. But that goal now seems increasingly remote, and there is an emerging consensus among political analysts that the party’s best chance for capturing a Republican seat is the battle to succeed Representative Sherwood L. Boehlert, one of the most liberal Republicans in Congress, who is retiring.
At the same time, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee plans to spend roughly $50 million on advertisements for races around the country, according to Republican estimates. But none of that money has been set aside for New York races, except for Mr. Boehlert’s seat in the 24th District in the Utica area, according to Democrats involved in the races.
The shifting local fortunes for Democrats could have serious political implications beyond New York. The party needs 15 seats to take control of the House. Even one victory in New York would be an important step toward that goal, giving the Democrats a cushion if they lose elsewhere in the nation.
The situation in New York is particularly surprising given the state’s reputation as a Democratic bastion. National and state party officials have spent months trying to create buzz around those races. But Republican incumbents, in New York and elsewhere, have been trying to shift the focus of the races away from hostility toward the Bush administration to more local concerns, like the potential loss of federal aid to their districts if they lose veteran congressmen.
Representative John E. Sweeney, one of the Republican incumbents, said the situation in New York demonstrated the drawbacks of the Democratic effort to present the midterm elections as a national referendum on President Bush and the policies of Republican leaders in Washington. “Congressional races are local,” he said. “There can be superseding events like Watergate. But those are rare. These races really are a referendum on the people running.”
In addition — and perhaps most important — the incumbents in New York are benefiting from being in legislative districts drawn to keep the Republican incumbents in place.
The Democrats’ inability to gain traction can be measured in the fund-raising disparity between them and Republicans, and is reflected in interviews with strategists in both parties and independent analysts. The national party assesses the strengths of a campaign according to several factors, including the ability of candidates to raise money on their own and their standing in polls.
Some Democrats argue that national party leaders are making a strategic mistake by not being more aggressive in contesting Congressional seats early in a heavily Democratic state like New York. This year in particular, strong campaigns by Eliot Spitzer and Mrs. Clinton, who are both expected to win primary races tomorrow by wide margins, could help generate a huge Democratic voter turnout on Election Day.
Dan Maffei, a Democrat running against Representative James T. Walsh, a Republican representing the Syracuse region, argued in a recent interview that the national party should do more to help him and other Democrats challenging potentially vulnerable incumbents in New York. He said that such support would, if nothing else, give Democrats a strategic advantage in the larger battle for the House and force national Republicans to allocate resources that they otherwise plan to use to defend Republicans elsewhere in the country.
The Congressional campaign committee “needs to be contesting in more districts,” Mr. Maffei said.
“If you open up this front,” he said, “the Republicans will have to defend it.”
Among the seats Democrats have hoped to capture is the Albany-area seat held by Mr. Sweeney, a four-term Republican who has come under criticism for his ties to lobbyists. Kirsten Gillibrand, the Democrat trying to unseat him, also argued that Democratic leaders in Washington ought to be aggressively expanding the map by stepping in with financial support for races like hers.
The campaign committee should “invest in a range of races in a range of districts so it can come up with a winning combination on Election Day,” Ms. Gillibrand said, though she noted that national party leaders had lent support by, for example, helping her raise money.
Representative Charles B. Rangel, a Harlem Democrat who is the dean of New York’s Congressional delegation, said he understood the strategy of national Democratic leaders, given the limited amount of money the party has. But he expressed hope that more money would pour into New York as some races tightened.
In the meantime, he said, the unusually high level of public unhappiness with the direction of the nation works in favor of Democratic challengers, as long as they have enough money to keep their campaigns running. “It is just as important as money,” he added.
Some Democrats say nothing should be read into the fact that the House Democrats’ campaign committee has not begun investing heavily in New York races, noting that it is still early in the fall campaign season and that national Democratic leaders have offered support by making campaign appearances with the challengers and helping them raise money.
“We continue to feel great about our opportunities in New York and even more so than we did a couple of months ago,” said Bill Burton, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
Independent analysts say that several factors make New York an especially difficult place for challengers. The state has 29 House seats, and 9 are held by Republicans, most in upstate areas where districts have been drawn to give Republicans a significant edge, countering increasing Democratic enrollment in the state.
The situation in New York contrasts with the political dynamic elsewhere in the Northeast, a heavily Democratic region that is central to the party’s plans for wresting control of the House. In Connecticut, for example, two Republican seats are being fiercely contested in races described as toss-ups. Republican incumbents are also facing stiff challenges in a handful of other states, including Pennsylvania, Indiana, Ohio and Florida.
Amy Walter, an analyst of House races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, said that independents would not play nearly as crucial a role in New York’s Congressional races as they do in states like Connecticut and Pennsylvania because New York’s districts tend to be heavily Republican.
“New York is a tougher place for Democrats than other parts of the Northeast,” she said.
The Gillibrand-Sweeney contest in the 20th Congressional District outside Albany underscores the challenges that Democrats face in New York.
Ms. Gillibrand, a lawyer, has been a strong fund-raiser, taking in nearly as much money as Mr. Sweeney. And she and her advisers have run a tenacious campaign, generating headlines by exploiting some of Mr. Sweeney’s actions, including a $2,000-a-person “Skiing With Sweeney” weekend getaway he organized that was attended by lobbyists at a resort in Park City, Utah. Mr. Sweeney denied doing anything improper. A spokeswoman said that a lobbyist involved with the trip represented two companies that employ more than 2,000 people in the congressman’s district, and that Mr. Sweeney had discussed economic development efforts with him.
But for all that, Ms. Gillibrand appears to have a long way to go in a district where there are nearly 100,000 more Republicans than Democrats. A recent poll released by the Siena Research Institute showed Mr. Sweeney with a 19-point lead.
The Sweeney-Gillibrand race shows how Republicans have deliberately focused on local circumstances and personalities rather than on national issues, at a time when President Bush continues to show weakness in the polls around the country.
For example, one advertisement that the Sweeney campaign began airing in June talks about the congressman’s “humble roots” in Troy, a blue-collar city in the district, and describes his father “as a union guy who worked three jobs.” Fittingly, the advertisement is called “The Kid From Troy,” and it concludes that Mr. Sweeney’s rise to Congress is nothing short of a “New York story about America’s promise.”
Ms. Gillibrand, whose campaign released a poll showing Mr. Sweeney ahead by a smaller margin, sought to play down the significance of polls showing her far behind and predicted that the Democrats’ campaign committee would begin funneling resources into her race as she closed in on Mr. Sweeney.
“In the abstract, this is not an obvious race,” she said. “But I have made the case from the beginning that this race is winnable because of the changing nature of our district, the voting record of John Sweeney and the strength of our campaign.”
Republicans say another reason for the situation shaping up in New York is that their party’s incumbents quickly turned their attention on potential challenges to head off serious problems later.
For example, two Republican incumbents in New York, Mr. Walsh and Mr. Sweeney, began running advertisements in June, long before the traditional start of the campaign season, on Labor Day.
Even Thomas M. Reynolds, a Buffalo-area congressman who is the chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, weighed in with advertisements of his own, in late July, apparently to head off attacks from his Democratic challenger, Jack Davis, a multimillionaire businessman.
“The G.O.P. incumbents recognized the difficult environment early on and mobilized to beat back their challenges early,” said Carl Forti, a spokesman for the National Republican Campaign Committee. Mr. Reynolds has been highlighting his ability to deliver federal aid to the economically struggling region.
Democrats say there is plenty of time for challengers to close any gaps. To that end, one prominent liberal group, MoveOn.org Political Action, is running advertisements attacking Mr. Sweeney and John R. Kuhl Jr., a first-term Republican from the Corning area, as part of a national campaign to help Democratic challengers who are in so-called second-tier races: contests that have the potential to become competitive but are not considered competitive yet.
The seats that the Democrats had identified as enticing targets include those held by Mr. Sweeney, Mr. Kuhl, Mr. Walsh, Sue Kelly of Westchester, and Mr. Boehlert. State Senator Raymond A. Meier, a Republican, and his Democratic opponent, Michael A. Arcuri, the Oneida County district attorney, are fighting for the seat that Mr. Boehlert is vacating.
The Democrats have also had their eye on Mr. Reynolds, who in 2004 won with 56 percent of the vote over Mr. Davis, who has vowed to spend $2 million on his campaign this year.
For Democrats’ Hopes, Less Promise in New York
By RAYMOND HERNANDEZ
Published: September 11, 2006
In a year when Democrats hope to take control of the House of Representatives, New York would appear to be fertile ground for toppling Republican incumbents. Democrats have a statewide edge in enrollment, and a popular incumbent, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, is at the top of the party’s ticket.
In fact, just a few months ago, Democrats envisioned significant gains in New York, perhaps picking up as many as four seats, possibly even five. But that goal now seems increasingly remote, and there is an emerging consensus among political analysts that the party’s best chance for capturing a Republican seat is the battle to succeed Representative Sherwood L. Boehlert, one of the most liberal Republicans in Congress, who is retiring.
At the same time, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee plans to spend roughly $50 million on advertisements for races around the country, according to Republican estimates. But none of that money has been set aside for New York races, except for Mr. Boehlert’s seat in the 24th District in the Utica area, according to Democrats involved in the races.
The shifting local fortunes for Democrats could have serious political implications beyond New York. The party needs 15 seats to take control of the House. Even one victory in New York would be an important step toward that goal, giving the Democrats a cushion if they lose elsewhere in the nation.
The situation in New York is particularly surprising given the state’s reputation as a Democratic bastion. National and state party officials have spent months trying to create buzz around those races. But Republican incumbents, in New York and elsewhere, have been trying to shift the focus of the races away from hostility toward the Bush administration to more local concerns, like the potential loss of federal aid to their districts if they lose veteran congressmen.
Representative John E. Sweeney, one of the Republican incumbents, said the situation in New York demonstrated the drawbacks of the Democratic effort to present the midterm elections as a national referendum on President Bush and the policies of Republican leaders in Washington. “Congressional races are local,” he said. “There can be superseding events like Watergate. But those are rare. These races really are a referendum on the people running.”
In addition — and perhaps most important — the incumbents in New York are benefiting from being in legislative districts drawn to keep the Republican incumbents in place.
The Democrats’ inability to gain traction can be measured in the fund-raising disparity between them and Republicans, and is reflected in interviews with strategists in both parties and independent analysts. The national party assesses the strengths of a campaign according to several factors, including the ability of candidates to raise money on their own and their standing in polls.
Some Democrats argue that national party leaders are making a strategic mistake by not being more aggressive in contesting Congressional seats early in a heavily Democratic state like New York. This year in particular, strong campaigns by Eliot Spitzer and Mrs. Clinton, who are both expected to win primary races tomorrow by wide margins, could help generate a huge Democratic voter turnout on Election Day.
Dan Maffei, a Democrat running against Representative James T. Walsh, a Republican representing the Syracuse region, argued in a recent interview that the national party should do more to help him and other Democrats challenging potentially vulnerable incumbents in New York. He said that such support would, if nothing else, give Democrats a strategic advantage in the larger battle for the House and force national Republicans to allocate resources that they otherwise plan to use to defend Republicans elsewhere in the country.
The Congressional campaign committee “needs to be contesting in more districts,” Mr. Maffei said.
“If you open up this front,” he said, “the Republicans will have to defend it.”
Among the seats Democrats have hoped to capture is the Albany-area seat held by Mr. Sweeney, a four-term Republican who has come under criticism for his ties to lobbyists. Kirsten Gillibrand, the Democrat trying to unseat him, also argued that Democratic leaders in Washington ought to be aggressively expanding the map by stepping in with financial support for races like hers.
The campaign committee should “invest in a range of races in a range of districts so it can come up with a winning combination on Election Day,” Ms. Gillibrand said, though she noted that national party leaders had lent support by, for example, helping her raise money.
Representative Charles B. Rangel, a Harlem Democrat who is the dean of New York’s Congressional delegation, said he understood the strategy of national Democratic leaders, given the limited amount of money the party has. But he expressed hope that more money would pour into New York as some races tightened.
In the meantime, he said, the unusually high level of public unhappiness with the direction of the nation works in favor of Democratic challengers, as long as they have enough money to keep their campaigns running. “It is just as important as money,” he added.
Some Democrats say nothing should be read into the fact that the House Democrats’ campaign committee has not begun investing heavily in New York races, noting that it is still early in the fall campaign season and that national Democratic leaders have offered support by making campaign appearances with the challengers and helping them raise money.
“We continue to feel great about our opportunities in New York and even more so than we did a couple of months ago,” said Bill Burton, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
Independent analysts say that several factors make New York an especially difficult place for challengers. The state has 29 House seats, and 9 are held by Republicans, most in upstate areas where districts have been drawn to give Republicans a significant edge, countering increasing Democratic enrollment in the state.
The situation in New York contrasts with the political dynamic elsewhere in the Northeast, a heavily Democratic region that is central to the party’s plans for wresting control of the House. In Connecticut, for example, two Republican seats are being fiercely contested in races described as toss-ups. Republican incumbents are also facing stiff challenges in a handful of other states, including Pennsylvania, Indiana, Ohio and Florida.
Amy Walter, an analyst of House races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, said that independents would not play nearly as crucial a role in New York’s Congressional races as they do in states like Connecticut and Pennsylvania because New York’s districts tend to be heavily Republican.
“New York is a tougher place for Democrats than other parts of the Northeast,” she said.
The Gillibrand-Sweeney contest in the 20th Congressional District outside Albany underscores the challenges that Democrats face in New York.
Ms. Gillibrand, a lawyer, has been a strong fund-raiser, taking in nearly as much money as Mr. Sweeney. And she and her advisers have run a tenacious campaign, generating headlines by exploiting some of Mr. Sweeney’s actions, including a $2,000-a-person “Skiing With Sweeney” weekend getaway he organized that was attended by lobbyists at a resort in Park City, Utah. Mr. Sweeney denied doing anything improper. A spokeswoman said that a lobbyist involved with the trip represented two companies that employ more than 2,000 people in the congressman’s district, and that Mr. Sweeney had discussed economic development efforts with him.
But for all that, Ms. Gillibrand appears to have a long way to go in a district where there are nearly 100,000 more Republicans than Democrats. A recent poll released by the Siena Research Institute showed Mr. Sweeney with a 19-point lead.
The Sweeney-Gillibrand race shows how Republicans have deliberately focused on local circumstances and personalities rather than on national issues, at a time when President Bush continues to show weakness in the polls around the country.
For example, one advertisement that the Sweeney campaign began airing in June talks about the congressman’s “humble roots” in Troy, a blue-collar city in the district, and describes his father “as a union guy who worked three jobs.” Fittingly, the advertisement is called “The Kid From Troy,” and it concludes that Mr. Sweeney’s rise to Congress is nothing short of a “New York story about America’s promise.”
Ms. Gillibrand, whose campaign released a poll showing Mr. Sweeney ahead by a smaller margin, sought to play down the significance of polls showing her far behind and predicted that the Democrats’ campaign committee would begin funneling resources into her race as she closed in on Mr. Sweeney.
“In the abstract, this is not an obvious race,” she said. “But I have made the case from the beginning that this race is winnable because of the changing nature of our district, the voting record of John Sweeney and the strength of our campaign.”
Republicans say another reason for the situation shaping up in New York is that their party’s incumbents quickly turned their attention on potential challenges to head off serious problems later.
For example, two Republican incumbents in New York, Mr. Walsh and Mr. Sweeney, began running advertisements in June, long before the traditional start of the campaign season, on Labor Day.
Even Thomas M. Reynolds, a Buffalo-area congressman who is the chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, weighed in with advertisements of his own, in late July, apparently to head off attacks from his Democratic challenger, Jack Davis, a multimillionaire businessman.
“The G.O.P. incumbents recognized the difficult environment early on and mobilized to beat back their challenges early,” said Carl Forti, a spokesman for the National Republican Campaign Committee. Mr. Reynolds has been highlighting his ability to deliver federal aid to the economically struggling region.
Democrats say there is plenty of time for challengers to close any gaps. To that end, one prominent liberal group, MoveOn.org Political Action, is running advertisements attacking Mr. Sweeney and John R. Kuhl Jr., a first-term Republican from the Corning area, as part of a national campaign to help Democratic challengers who are in so-called second-tier races: contests that have the potential to become competitive but are not considered competitive yet.
The seats that the Democrats had identified as enticing targets include those held by Mr. Sweeney, Mr. Kuhl, Mr. Walsh, Sue Kelly of Westchester, and Mr. Boehlert. State Senator Raymond A. Meier, a Republican, and his Democratic opponent, Michael A. Arcuri, the Oneida County district attorney, are fighting for the seat that Mr. Boehlert is vacating.
The Democrats have also had their eye on Mr. Reynolds, who in 2004 won with 56 percent of the vote over Mr. Davis, who has vowed to spend $2 million on his campaign this year.
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