Why the Job Numbers Are So Bad

[BigBadBrian]

Why the Job Numbers Are So Bad

LINK (http://www.cnbc.com/id/47294387)
The economy added 115,000 jobs in April—much less than expected and not enough to keep up with natural population growth. The unemployment rate fell to 8.1 percentbecause another 522,000 adults quit looking for work and are no longer counted.


In the weakest recovery since the Great Depression more than four-fifths of the reduction in unemployment has been accomplished by a dropping adult labor force participation rate—essentially, persuading adults they don’t need a job, or the job they could find is not worth having.

In the first quarter, growth slowed to 2.2 percent and was largely sustained by consumers taking on more debt, and additions to business inventory.

The housing market is improving and that should lift residential construction a bit, but overall the economy and jobs growth should slow further in the second quarter. The April jobs report bares evidence to a slowing pace of economic expansion and is a precursor of more consumer caution.

Manufacturing added 15,000 jobs, down from 28,000 in March. That sector’s strong recovery should be generating more gains. Elsewhere jobs gains were weak and generally down from February.

Construction shed 2,000 jobs and transportation and warehousing lost 17,000 employees, as logistic companies brace for a further slowdown.

The government lost 15,000 jobs, and the private sector added 130,000. Other sectors of the economy posted generally modest gains.

Gains in manufacturing production have not instigated stronger improvements in employment largely because so much of the growth is focused in high-value activity. Assembly work, outside the auto patch, remains handicapped by the exchange rate situation with the Chinese yuan.

And concerns about the durability of the recovery and health care costs when Obama Care is fully implemented make employers very cautious about adding to headcount.

Overall, the situation with the yuan is the single largest impediment to more robust growth in manufacturing and its broader multiplier effects for the rest of the economy; the Obama Administration indicated it has no intention of challenging China on this issue, but presumptive GOP standard bearer Mitt Romney promises a harder line.

The private sector less the heavily subsidized health care and social services industries, and temporary businesses services, only added ¬91,000 jobs. In the months ahead, gains in core private sector employment must improve dramatically if the economy is to halt the decline in real wages and provide federal, state and local governments with adequate revenues, and that is not happening fast enough.

The economic crisis in Europe and mounting problems in China’s housing and banking sectors continue to instigate worries among U.S. businesses about a second major recession, and these discourage new hiring. The U.S. economy continues to expand albeit moderately but is quite vulnerable to shock waves from crises in European and Asia.

Factoring in those discouraged adults and others working part time for lack of full time opportunities, the unemployment rate is about 14.5 percent. Adding college graduates in low skill positions, like counterwork at Starbucks, and the unemployment rate is likely closer to 18 percent

Prospects for lowering those dreadful statistics remain slim. The economy must add 13.3 million jobs over the next three years—370,000 each month—to bring unemployment down to 6 percent.

Growth in the range of 4 to 5 percent is needed to get unemployment down to 6 percent over the next several years. In 2011, the economy grew at about 1.7 percent but that is expected to slow to 2.5 percent in 2012.

Growth is weak and jobs are in jeopardy, because temporary tax cuts, stimulus spending, large federal deficits, expensive but ineffective business regulations, and costly health care mandates do not address structural problems holding back dynamic growth and jobs creation—the huge trade deficit and dysfunctional energy policies.

Oil and trade with China account for nearly the entire $600 billion trade deficit. This deficit is a tax on domestic demand that erases the benefits of tax cuts and stimulus spending.

Simply, dollars sent abroad to purchase oil and consumer goods from China, that do not return to purchase U.S. exports, are lost purchasing power. Consequently, the U.S. economy is expanding at 2 percent a year instead of the 5 percent pace that is possible after emerging from a deep recession and with such high unemployment.

Without prompt efforts to produce more domestic oil, redress the trade imbalance with China, relax burdensome business regulations, and curb health care mandates and costs, the U.S. economy cannot grow and create enough jobs.

[Nitro Express]

You can't be an economic super power and not make anything. That's been proven. The low tier manufacturing jobs provide an entry level entrance to a ladder that you can climb if you choose to get additional education and training. Parts have to be supplied, paperwork needs to be done, things need to be managed, maintenance needs to be done. The trick is to pay the workers enough so they can afford what they make and you create an economy with a middle class.

The outsourcing was done by people who had a long-term goal on enriching themselves and destroying the US dominance in the world. The type of people who want to control the people down below them and view them as slaves. The plantation and company store is back it's just been built in China with western oligarchs who partnered with the Chinese many years ago. All you have to do is read David Rockefeller's memoirs and he talks about this plan and praises Mao Tse Tung as one of the most influential leaders of the 20th Century. What's interesting is I was talking to an older gentleman who's brother worked for naval intelligence and discovered the US was covertly supporting Mao while in the open we were supporting Chang Kai Shek. He was floored but never brought attention to it out of fear of repercussions from those above him. So he sat on what he know all these years.

Modern China was supported and built by the financial elite in the west. Communism in the 20th Century was supported by western bankers. Interesting enough oil oligarchs like the Koch family and Armand Hammer did business in the Soviet Union all during the cold war. Chase bank had bank branches in China and the USSR during communist times.

There seems to be a long-term plan to make countries in the world equal and then to consolidate them into a few trade unions. Some of these assholes have even publicly said the world would be better ran if corporations, banks, and academics made all the decisions instead of the voting public at large. So they basically view the average person on the same level as livestock and think you have no say in the way things are ran. They also don't view any of the property you own as yours, they consider it theirs because they can manage it better than you can. You just need to do some research on the UN's Agenda 21 to see this kind of thinking. It's really nazi type shit but instead of tanks and storm troopers rolling in they have used corporate and financial means to take over. They simply drop the interest rate until the bubble explodes and then they come in on the white horse to save the day and stab you in the back while they buy everything up on the cheap. You issue easy credit on the way up and then jack people with high interest on the way down. Most Americans pay $6000 a year on average to the banks and they have on average $2000 in savings. They are fucking owned. Most don't own the home they live in or even the car they drive. The bank does. The banks own everything and they did it by controlling the money supply and interest rates. They didn't even need to use an army. Now their political cronies are saying if you want to protest or complain about it we will just have the military drag you off with no trial. Talk about a bunch of cocky mother fuckers. This is the current situation and since Obama works for the banks, he has no intention of fixing anything. He's on script and he doesn't care because he's making money hand over fist by being president. He will come out of there a multimillionare. He doesn't give a rat's ass about the country or the people who live here. Like all these crony fucks in Washington they are only our for themselves.

The US and much of the world has degraded into a corporate owned fascist state. Obamacare is not the universal medicine everyone praised it for. It creates a government enforced corporate medical monopoly. In other words the government forces you to buy health insurance from a limited pool of companies and they also dictate your choices of care. It's not about providing healthcare it's about controlling the population and making a lot of money while doing it. You no longer have a personal relationship with your doctor, the government has shoved it's nose into it and it's going to dictate what goes on there. Amazingly the same people who supported Obamacare are the same ones who complain about the government telling a woman what to do with her body. Nobody looks at the details of this plan they just bought into all the media hype that sold it. Most the people who voted on it didn't even bother to read it because everything was kept secret until the vote. As Nancy Pelosi said we had to pass it to see what's in it and now everyone is going holly shit!

[fifth element]

the employment rate that is quoted to us is far, far reduced, because of several factors

1) as you said, people between the ages of 48 and retirement age are considered "unemployable" and are not counted as being "unemployed"

2) people working part time jobs that are making barely enough money to survive (and are looking, looking for something better) are not counted

3) people who are hugely "underemployed" (people w/ a law degree working as night tellers at Quik-Trip, or people w/ business/computer science/ANY degree who are stocking shelves, working at car washes, doing ANYTHING just to have SOME money coming in)...are not counted

4) the people who have disabilities but would normally work anyway...are not counted.


the numbers of these people is enormous....and we simply do not count. some will say that a job is a job....but as most of us know...that is simply not true...especially when you are paying back astronomical Student Loans and are unable to get more than a minimum wage position because of the vast numbers of people looking for work....


just my 2 cents worth.

[Nitro Express]

If you used government statistics to base your business decisions on you would be broke. Government statistics always make the bad things look better. For years the inflation calculator has excluded the cost of food and fuel. The two things that tend to get hit by inflation the most. It's all in what data they choose to calculate their statistical models from. People need to stop listening to the government or the media and go out and take a look for themselves. Government statistics are great if you are writing a report in college for a grade but in the real world where you are making decisions that affect your livelyhood you better dig deeper. Anyone with any investment experience will tell your this. Government statistics are a good joke in that circle.

I mean it's simple common sense. The government statistics will tell you there is no inflation or it's smaller than it really is and then you go to the grocery store and compare your grocery bill to one three years ago and holy shit, food has gone up! The government says it hasn't or it hasn't as much as my bill shows. You can't take this government data at face value. Politicians aren't about to tell your the truth, that makes them look bad. They will always fudge the numbers to look good. This is the norm worldwide.

I got through college when it still was a system that was affordable. My health insurance was $30 a semester and tuition was at the level you could pay it and your cost of living if you had a part time job or a good summer job. Many of my roommates worked their way through school working the summers up in Alaska and maybe having a part time job while in school. Nobody was taking out loans and nobody was coming out with any debt. Most of us didn't even have credit cards.

Now the banks and the government have turned going to college as the entry way to debtor slavery. College tuition started to rise nine times the rate of inflation at the same time easy loans became available. Then when you went to buy your book there was some goon trying to get you signed up for a student visa card. Obviously the banks and who runs these universities got into cahoots with each other. Talk about a scam. They turned and opportunity into slavery.

A high school graduate today would be better off to just get an old school bus and turn it into a taco wagon or run a hot dog stand. They would have some money coming in and no debt. Shit. You could live in the taco wagon too.

[Seshmeister]

http://media.economist.com/sites/default/files/cf_images/images-magazine/2011/09/17/WO/20110917_WOC674.gif

[Nitro Express]

Wars R Us, Walshit, and McFucked. They may create jobs but their services and products suck.

[sadaist]

http://media.economist.com/sites/default/files/cf_images/images-magazine/2011/09/17/WO/20110917_WOC674.gif


Does the dept of defense include all branches of the military, national guard, coast guard, reserves?


*and it at least has the coolest logo.

[sadaist]

Wars R Us, Walshit, and McFucked. They may create jobs but their services and products suck.


I gotta disagree a little bit with that. McD's has excellent service for the most part. Very strict cleanliness rules (why a Coke always tastes so good there). And the product isn't bad. Isn't great, but for the cost it's not bad at all.

[Nitro Express]

McDonald's is great if you like the taste of saw dust. They used to be clean but they aren't anymore. With so many franchises it's impossible to run McD's to the old standards they used to have. It's like saying KFC is of the same standard it was with the Colonel ran it. He was known to show up to your franchise unannounced and if it wasn't up to his standard he took the pressure cookers and the secret batter mix and you were not selling his chicken anymore.

McDonald's is also a rip off. It's expensive for what you get. There are so many better places to eat for the money.

[sadaist]

another 522,000 adults quit looking for work and are no longer counted.


As is the case with many things, this confuses me.

What do these people do? How do they continue to live? Eat? Have a vehicle? A roof? There surely aren't that many more lining up every month at the soup kitchen or living behind the drug store.

I am seeing a sad trend right now. I drive around rural areas and see TONS TONS TONS of vans, trailers, rv's, campers parked out in nowhere or in someones yard with people living in them. I have a feeling this trend will only grow. Start paying attention as you drive around and I bet you start noticing this. A trailer is fine for 1-2 people but stuffing a family with kids into one? It shouldn't be this way guys. I personally could live happily in a small trailer/RV but can't imagine trying to raise a family in one.

[sadaist]

McDonald's is great if you like the taste of saw dust. They used to be clean but they aren't anymore. With so many franchises it's impossible to run McD's to the old standards they used to have. It's like saying KFC is of the same standard it was with the Colonel ran it. He was known to show up to your franchise unannounced and if it wasn't up to his standard he took the pressure cookers and the secret batter mix and you were not selling his chicken anymore.

McDonald's is also a rip off. It's expensive for what you get. There are so many better places to eat for the money.

Ahh...maybe. I only get cokes, coffee or McMuffins and have never had any issue whatsoever. I haven't dabbled into the rest of the menu in a long, long time.

[Nitro Express]

As is the case with many things, this confuses me.

What do these people do? How do they continue to live? Eat? Have a vehicle? A roof? There surely aren't that many more lining up every month at the soup kitchen or living behind the drug store.

I am seeing a sad trend right now. I drive around rural areas and see TONS TONS TONS of vans, trailers, rv's, campers parked out in nowhere or in someones yard with people living in them. I have a feeling this trend will only grow. Start paying attention as you drive around and I bet you start noticing this. A trailer is fine for 1-2 people but stuffing a family with kids into one? It shouldn't be this way guys. I personally could live happily in a small trailer/RV but can't imagine trying to raise a family in one.

You have your state government to thank for that. Talk about idiots. They had the seventh largest economy in the world and turned it into the worst bond rated state in the union. California is a basket case. They won't cut their spending, they have driven the industry and much of the productive people out and the shit for brain governor wants to raise taxes. Of course someone will come in and buy it up cheap. I don't even enjoy going there on vacation anymore. It's pretty sad to see what happened to the place. I remember the good times.

[Nitro Express]

Does the dept of defense include all branches of the military, national guard, coast guard, reserves?


*and it at least has the coolest logo.

Yup the DoD is the Pentagon. It includes all the branches. It runs 800 military bases worldwide.

[Nitro Express]

Another reason I don't do business with McDonald's and Walmart is I don't like to support slavery.


Struggling companies don't have the option of paying their workers more, because they operate on razor-thin margins. But this is not the case for Walmart, McDonalds, Starbucks, and other robustly healthy companies that employ millions of Americans in low-wage service jobs.

Corporate profit margins, in fact, are close to an all-time high, while wages as a percent of the economy are at an all-time low.

So companies have plenty of room to pay their employees more, if only they choose to do so.



Read more: http://articles.businessinsider.com/2012-02-16/news/31065596_1_manufacturing-jobs-low-wage-workers-high-skill-jobs#ixzz1wCIcV7Hu

They are shitty companies and I might add the Department of Health and Human Services just gave McDonald's an Obamacare exemption. They don't have to pay into it while other employers do. This is all about gutting what's left of non-corporate America and independent business.

[Nickdfresh]

Does the dept of defense include all branches of the military, national guard, coast guard, reserves?


*and it at least has the coolest logo.

Everything except the Coast Guard...

[sadaist]

Everything except the Coast Guard...


Which umbrella do they fall under?

I found this....


The Coast Guard's legal authority differs from the other four armed services: it operates simultaneously under Title 10 of the United States Code and its other organic authorities, e.g., Titles 6, 14, 19, 33, 46, etc. Because of its legal authority, the Coast Guard can conduct military operations under the Department of Defense or directly for the President in accordance with Title 14 USC 1–3.

[Nitro Express]

Which umbrella do they fall under?

I found this....


The Coast Guard's legal authority differs from the other four armed services: it operates simultaneously under Title 10 of the United States Code and its other organic authorities, e.g., Titles 6, 14, 19, 33, 46, etc. Because of its legal authority, the Coast Guard can conduct military operations under the Department of Defense or directly for the President in accordance with Title 14 USC 1–3.

The Coast Guard falls under the Navy umbrella in time of war. In fact the Coast Guard is operating in the Persian Gulf right now. The Coast Guard is technically a federal law enforcement agency but also can be used in naval military operations during times of war.

[twonabomber]

As is the case with many things, this confuses me.

What do these people do? How do they continue to live? Eat? Have a vehicle? A roof? There surely aren't that many more lining up every month at the soup kitchen or living behind the drug store.


that's my neighbor. i don't think he's worked since i moved in two years ago, and he had mentioned he was out of work for at least a year before i got here. i wonder how the hell they make it.

[Nickdfresh]

Which umbrella do they fall under?

I found this....


The Coast Guard's legal authority differs from the other four armed services: it operates simultaneously under Title 10 of the United States Code and its other organic authorities, e.g., Titles 6, 14, 19, 33, 46, etc. Because of its legal authority, the Coast Guard can conduct military operations under the Department of Defense or directly for the President in accordance with Title 14 USC 1–3.

They're under Homeland Security during peacetime (previously, it was the Dept. of Transportation). In wartime, they're essentially part of the Navy...

[Seshmeister]

that's my neighbor. i don't think he's worked since i moved in two years ago, and he had mentioned he was out of work for at least a year before i got here. i wonder how the hell they make it.

Grey/Black economy?

There are millions of people that are completely outwith the system in any country.

[Yount]

i wonder when they're going to just roll in and take us all out.

[twonabomber]

Grey/Black economy?

There are millions of people that are completely outwith the system in any country.

i dunno.

there's probably some kind of disability payment coming in, his wife is super ginormous. she rarely leaves the house.

[fifth element]

McDonald's is great if you like the taste of saw dust. They used to be clean but they aren't anymore. With so many franchises it's impossible to run McD's to the old standards they used to have. It's like saying KFC is of the same standard it was with the Colonel ran it. He was known to show up to your franchise unannounced and if it wasn't up to his standard he took the pressure cookers and the secret batter mix and you were not selling his chicken anymore.

McDonald's is also a rip off. It's expensive for what you get. There are so many better places to eat for the money.

agree....you can eat at many buffets, (lunch) for the same price that you can get a burger, fries and drink.
In fact, at $5.49 for lunch, Ryans, Inc and Hometown Buffet have McDonalds beat unless you chose the Dollar menu.

[Seshmeister]

i dunno.

there's probably some kind of disability payment coming in, his wife is super ginormous. she rarely leaves the house.

Maybe she is a phone sex worker.