FORD
07-13-2004, 10:35 AM
The New Spoiler - Libertarian candidate could hurt Bush
MICHAEL BADNARIK, the software engineer who is the Libertarian Party's 2004 presidential candidate, is hardly a household name. But if the election stays as close as it is right now, then Badnarik, who is a critic of excessive government spending and the Iraq war, could pose the same problem for President George Bush that Ralph Nader poses for Democratic challenger John Kerry.
Badnarik could attract as much as 1% of the presidential vote, pollster John Zogby told us this week. One percent may not sound like a lot, but with 16 to 20 states considered "battlegrounds" that are too close too call, this slim margin could determine the outcome of the contest, Zogby says.
Libertarians have never been this much of a threat before. Harry Browne, the party's pick in 2000, attracted half of a percent in the 2000 race. The reason that Badnarik may do better is that many conservative Republicans are upset with numerous Bush policies, and plan to register a protest.
These conservatives, Zogby says, are most angry about the budget deficit and runaway Republican spending; the war with Iraq, which they feel was ill-advised; and the Patriot Act, because it curbs civil liberties.
Zogby, who conducts polls for major media companies and both political parties, thinks Constitution Party candidate Michael Anthony Peroutka also could become a negative for Bush in some crucial states. Peroutka's overall take is expected to be about half a percent or less.
Nader, meanwhile, should attract 1.5% to 2% of the vote, according to Zogby's polling. Other polls say that Nader will attract up to 4% of the votes. About 50% of Nader's votes would come from people who would vote for Kerry if Nader were not in the race, Zogby says. About 25% would come from those who otherwise would vote for Bush. The remaining 25% represents people who wouldn't vote at all if Nader were not in the race.
Not all pollsters agree with Zogby. Larry Harris of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research says there's no Badnarik blip on his radar. If the race were to become so close that Badnarik could shape its outcome, then Bush would have problems far greater than those represented by the Libertarian protest vote, he says.
Still, there is no question that conservative Republicans are steam-out-of-the-ears angry at Bush. Last month, the Cato Institute, a think tank with strong libertarian leanings, published a paper that criticized Bush's decision to occupy Iraq. Had it been published earlier, it might have served as anti-Bush cannon fodder for lefty filmmaker Michael Moore.
In March, Cato issued a report that criticized Republicans in Congress for overspending and creating "the current budget mess." In the 2000 election, the Cato crowd was considered part of the solid GOP base.
Pop Corn
Meanwhile, Iowa Republican Sen. Charles Grassley is doing his part to alienate his party's conservatives. Backers of Badnarik favor free trade. Grassley is proposing protective tariffs to prevent the importation of cheap ethanol from South America. Ethanol, a gasoline additive of arguable value, is distilled from corn.
Grassley's bill is aimed particularly at Cargill Corp., which is headquartered in Minnesota. Cargill spotted a loophole in a free-trade agreement between the U.S. and Caribbean nations that would allow it to process Brazilian ethanol in a proposed plant in El Salvador and ship it into the U.S. duty-free. Absent the loophole, Cargill would be forced to pay 54 cents a gallon in tariffs. Cargill's plan remains in the discussion phase, a company spokesman told us. The National Corn Growers Association calls Cargill's plan "an affront to corn growers and farmers across the country."
(7/12/2004)
- By Jim McTague, Barrons Online, Wall Street Journal
MICHAEL BADNARIK, the software engineer who is the Libertarian Party's 2004 presidential candidate, is hardly a household name. But if the election stays as close as it is right now, then Badnarik, who is a critic of excessive government spending and the Iraq war, could pose the same problem for President George Bush that Ralph Nader poses for Democratic challenger John Kerry.
Badnarik could attract as much as 1% of the presidential vote, pollster John Zogby told us this week. One percent may not sound like a lot, but with 16 to 20 states considered "battlegrounds" that are too close too call, this slim margin could determine the outcome of the contest, Zogby says.
Libertarians have never been this much of a threat before. Harry Browne, the party's pick in 2000, attracted half of a percent in the 2000 race. The reason that Badnarik may do better is that many conservative Republicans are upset with numerous Bush policies, and plan to register a protest.
These conservatives, Zogby says, are most angry about the budget deficit and runaway Republican spending; the war with Iraq, which they feel was ill-advised; and the Patriot Act, because it curbs civil liberties.
Zogby, who conducts polls for major media companies and both political parties, thinks Constitution Party candidate Michael Anthony Peroutka also could become a negative for Bush in some crucial states. Peroutka's overall take is expected to be about half a percent or less.
Nader, meanwhile, should attract 1.5% to 2% of the vote, according to Zogby's polling. Other polls say that Nader will attract up to 4% of the votes. About 50% of Nader's votes would come from people who would vote for Kerry if Nader were not in the race, Zogby says. About 25% would come from those who otherwise would vote for Bush. The remaining 25% represents people who wouldn't vote at all if Nader were not in the race.
Not all pollsters agree with Zogby. Larry Harris of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research says there's no Badnarik blip on his radar. If the race were to become so close that Badnarik could shape its outcome, then Bush would have problems far greater than those represented by the Libertarian protest vote, he says.
Still, there is no question that conservative Republicans are steam-out-of-the-ears angry at Bush. Last month, the Cato Institute, a think tank with strong libertarian leanings, published a paper that criticized Bush's decision to occupy Iraq. Had it been published earlier, it might have served as anti-Bush cannon fodder for lefty filmmaker Michael Moore.
In March, Cato issued a report that criticized Republicans in Congress for overspending and creating "the current budget mess." In the 2000 election, the Cato crowd was considered part of the solid GOP base.
Pop Corn
Meanwhile, Iowa Republican Sen. Charles Grassley is doing his part to alienate his party's conservatives. Backers of Badnarik favor free trade. Grassley is proposing protective tariffs to prevent the importation of cheap ethanol from South America. Ethanol, a gasoline additive of arguable value, is distilled from corn.
Grassley's bill is aimed particularly at Cargill Corp., which is headquartered in Minnesota. Cargill spotted a loophole in a free-trade agreement between the U.S. and Caribbean nations that would allow it to process Brazilian ethanol in a proposed plant in El Salvador and ship it into the U.S. duty-free. Absent the loophole, Cargill would be forced to pay 54 cents a gallon in tariffs. Cargill's plan remains in the discussion phase, a company spokesman told us. The National Corn Growers Association calls Cargill's plan "an affront to corn growers and farmers across the country."
(7/12/2004)
- By Jim McTague, Barrons Online, Wall Street Journal