CNNUSATODAYGALLUP POLL: Bush 50%, Kerry 47%
Poll: Bush has slim lead over Kerry
By Jill Lawrence, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — President Bush enters his convention week holding a slight lead over Democrat John Kerry and regaining ground he lost after the Democratic convention on the key issues of handling terrorism and Iraq, a new USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll shows. (Related link: Poll results)
In a head-to-head matchup, Bush led Kerry 50%-47% among likely voters, while Kerry led Bush 48%-47% among registered voters. When independent Ralph Nader is included, Bush leads Kerry, 48%-46%, among likely voters. Nader gets 4%.
The poll of 1,004 adults, conducted Monday through Wednesday, had a margin of error of +/3 percentage points. The margin was +/4 points for the subgroups of registered and likely voters.
Bush's favorable rating of 54% was his highest since April. By contrast, Kerry's 52% was his lowest since January.
Bush dominated on personal traits such as "honest and trustworthy" and "stands up for what he believes in." But Kerry continued to lead Bush when people were asked who would better handle taxes, education, Medicare and the economy.
Matthew Dowd, chief strategist for the Bush campaign, said he is elated by Bush's standing going into Monday's convention. "No challenger has ever won going into the incumbent's convention behind," he said. He added that Kerry's convention appears to have had no impact.
The encouraging signs for Bush came as Kerry's Vietnam War record was under attack by Swift Boat Veterans for Truth. The attacks, though most have not been substantiated, appear to have contributed to the slippage in Kerry's numbers on national security issues.
At the same time, the poll found that most people, 63%, think Kerry is definitely or probably telling the truth about his military service. Half say Bush is very or somewhat responsible for the ads the group is running, although Bush and his campaign have denied any involvement. And 56% say Bush should denounce the ads.
Pollster Mark Mellman, a senior Kerry adviser, says the poll shows "the vast majority of Americans understand that this smear against John Kerry is in fact untrue. They hold President Bush responsible for it." Mellman also said that based on individual state polls, Kerry is ahead in states with 320 electoral votes. A candidate needs 270 to win the presidency.
The Democratic convention focused squarely on Kerry's heroics in Vietnam and his support among veterans and retired military brass. He closed some gaps with Bush on security issues immediately afterwards, but the new poll shows those gains vanishing. Among the findings:
•Bush leads Kerry 49%-43% on who would handle Iraq better. Kerry was ahead 48%-47% right after the convention.
•Bush leads Kerry 54%-37% on who would handle terrorism better. Kerry had risen to 41% after his convention.
•Bush leads Kerry 54%-34% on who people think is "a strong and decisive leader." Kerry had halved that lead to 10 points right after the convention.
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