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This season's most overrated players
The following is an exercise in craven subjectivity.
We're talking overrated and underrated. Any time these two words are introduced into the discussion, you're taking into account individual perceptions, however skewed and adulterated those might be.
Nevertheless, we're at a point in the season in which performances are meaningful from a sample size standpoint, and we can also, with reasonable accuracy, read the hype meters around the league. Who's getting too much ink? Who's owed some bandwidth? These are the overrated and underrated performers for the season in our midst. And this time, it's the players whose numbers don't rise to the level of the column inches.
If they were a band, they'd be Coldplay. Yep, it's the top 10 most overrated players for 2005 ...
1. Scott Podsednik, LF, White Sox
Scott Podesdnik has all the speed in the world, but the left fielder hasn't hit a single home run this season. (Jonathan Daniel / Getty Images)
To hear many in the media tell it, Podsednik is the catalyst for the best team in the American League. To hear the numbers tell it, Podsednik is a below-average performer by left-fielder standards. He has his merits — good defense, solid on-base skills, speed on the bases — but his failings are more critical. To wit, he can't hit for power. At all. Podsednik's .337 slugging percentage is appalling for a corner outfielder playing half his games in one of the best power parks around. A left fielder with no home runs this late in the season isn't doing his job, no matter how many bases he steals.
2. Carlos Beltran, CF, Mets
Beltran was overrated before his disappointing season in 2005. Beltran, of course, ramped up his market value with a hot stretch drive and stunning postseason with the Astros last year, but consider the preponderance of the evidence. He was a good player with admirable defensive skills, exceptional base-stealing abilities and a solid bat made to look better by a succession of hitter-friendly parks.
However, the Mets gave this good player "great player" money. A nagging hamstring injury and the run-suppressing environs of Shea have exacted a toll on Beltran this season. He's a better player than his 2005 numbers, but he's a substantially worse player than that $119 million contract.
3. Hank Blalock, 3B, Rangers
Blalock has loads of ability, but his levels of offensive production are illusory. That's because Ameriquest Field is drastically inflating his numbers.
Consider his career batting line on the road: .241 AVG/.300 OBP/.401 SLG. Now contrast that with his work at home: .316 AVG/.386 OBP/.566 SLG. Until he learns to hit away from Arlington, Blalock won't be the All-Star he's passed off as.
4. Kevin Millar, 1B, Red Sox
Folksy and likeable? Sure. Idiot, Cowboy Up and all that stuff? Sure. Productive? Nope. This season, Millar is putting up a batting line of .270 AVG/.357 OBP/.367 SLG, which isn't adequate for a defensively challenged first baseman. He's had a couple of very good seasons in his career (both as a Marlin), but he's been unable to produce at all on the road in recent seasons (Fenway is a haven for right-handed batters). Regardless of clubhouse chops, he needs to be benched for road games and cut loose altogether after this season.
5. Victor Zambrano, SP, Mets
The Mets cut bait on Scott Kazmir, perhaps the best young lefty in the game, to get Zambrano, mostly because then new pitching Rick Peterson thought he could fix him. Zambrano has a career 4.40 ERA and is already 30 years old. At first glance you might think Zambrano has made nominal improvement, what with his 4.13 ERA. However, consider that Shea is a pitcher's park, run scoring is down this season, and Zambrano has out only 88 strikeouts against 66 walks. Kazmir is the better pitcher now, and he'll most assuredly be the better pitcher in years to come. A terrible, terrible trade for the Mets.
6. C.C. Sabathia, SP, Indians
In some circles, Sabathia is regarded as an ace. He's not. In only one season has Sabathia worked at least 200 innings while maintaining an ERA better than the league average. This season, his ERA has risen to a career-worst 4.75. Sabathia's still only 25, but the time has come to realize his promise.
7. Zack Greinke, SP, Royals
Fits and starts for a pitcher this young are to be expected, but a 6.28 ERA? Greinke was once hailed as the best pitching prospect in baseball, but it's not likely he'll ever live up to those expectations. Why?
Greinke posts low strikeout rates in tandem with fly-ball tendencies. That's a dangerous mix. No matter how good a pitcher's command might be, if he's allowing a lot of balls in play and a lot of those balls are in the air ... well, that's bad. Press clippings aside, don't expect future greatness from Greinke.
8. Ichiro Suzuki, RF, Mariners
Ichiro is a cultural luminary, an important figure in baseball history and a thoroughly likeable and engaging athlete. He also hits for average, runs the bases well and plays an exceptional right field.
However, Ichiro lacks secondary hitting skills. That means he doesn't draw walks and doesn't hit for power.
Because of these deficiencies, he's a player who needs to hit .330 or higher to be effective. Some seasons, he does that, and some seasons he doesn't. When you consider all Ichiro signifies and his global popularity, he's worth the attention he gets. However, through the prism of on-field performance, he's not.
9. Sean Casey, 1B, Reds
Casey's had a handful of good seasons in his career, but he's horribly inconsistent and isn't worth the $7.8 million he's making this season. He's slugging only .440, which isn't impressive for a first baseman playing half his games in Cincinnati. Stat geeks generally overstate Casey's weaknesses, but he's overpaid and overvalued by the organization.
Considering the Reds' outfield/first base bottleneck, they badly need to pass on Casey's 2006 option. He's a useful player, but these days he's best deployed in a reserve/platoon role.
10. Ryan Klesko, LF, Padres
Bad defense? Yep. Bad defense no matter where you stick him? Yep. Hasn't hit for power since 2001? Yep.
Klesko still has good plate discipline, but he does little else to help his team. He was once an excellent player, but his time has passed.
The following is an exercise in craven subjectivity.
We're talking overrated and underrated. Any time these two words are introduced into the discussion, you're taking into account individual perceptions, however skewed and adulterated those might be.
Nevertheless, we're at a point in the season in which performances are meaningful from a sample size standpoint, and we can also, with reasonable accuracy, read the hype meters around the league. Who's getting too much ink? Who's owed some bandwidth? These are the overrated and underrated performers for the season in our midst. And this time, it's the players whose numbers don't rise to the level of the column inches.
If they were a band, they'd be Coldplay. Yep, it's the top 10 most overrated players for 2005 ...
1. Scott Podsednik, LF, White Sox
Scott Podesdnik has all the speed in the world, but the left fielder hasn't hit a single home run this season. (Jonathan Daniel / Getty Images)
To hear many in the media tell it, Podsednik is the catalyst for the best team in the American League. To hear the numbers tell it, Podsednik is a below-average performer by left-fielder standards. He has his merits — good defense, solid on-base skills, speed on the bases — but his failings are more critical. To wit, he can't hit for power. At all. Podsednik's .337 slugging percentage is appalling for a corner outfielder playing half his games in one of the best power parks around. A left fielder with no home runs this late in the season isn't doing his job, no matter how many bases he steals.
2. Carlos Beltran, CF, Mets
Beltran was overrated before his disappointing season in 2005. Beltran, of course, ramped up his market value with a hot stretch drive and stunning postseason with the Astros last year, but consider the preponderance of the evidence. He was a good player with admirable defensive skills, exceptional base-stealing abilities and a solid bat made to look better by a succession of hitter-friendly parks.
However, the Mets gave this good player "great player" money. A nagging hamstring injury and the run-suppressing environs of Shea have exacted a toll on Beltran this season. He's a better player than his 2005 numbers, but he's a substantially worse player than that $119 million contract.
3. Hank Blalock, 3B, Rangers
Blalock has loads of ability, but his levels of offensive production are illusory. That's because Ameriquest Field is drastically inflating his numbers.
Consider his career batting line on the road: .241 AVG/.300 OBP/.401 SLG. Now contrast that with his work at home: .316 AVG/.386 OBP/.566 SLG. Until he learns to hit away from Arlington, Blalock won't be the All-Star he's passed off as.
4. Kevin Millar, 1B, Red Sox
Folksy and likeable? Sure. Idiot, Cowboy Up and all that stuff? Sure. Productive? Nope. This season, Millar is putting up a batting line of .270 AVG/.357 OBP/.367 SLG, which isn't adequate for a defensively challenged first baseman. He's had a couple of very good seasons in his career (both as a Marlin), but he's been unable to produce at all on the road in recent seasons (Fenway is a haven for right-handed batters). Regardless of clubhouse chops, he needs to be benched for road games and cut loose altogether after this season.
5. Victor Zambrano, SP, Mets
The Mets cut bait on Scott Kazmir, perhaps the best young lefty in the game, to get Zambrano, mostly because then new pitching Rick Peterson thought he could fix him. Zambrano has a career 4.40 ERA and is already 30 years old. At first glance you might think Zambrano has made nominal improvement, what with his 4.13 ERA. However, consider that Shea is a pitcher's park, run scoring is down this season, and Zambrano has out only 88 strikeouts against 66 walks. Kazmir is the better pitcher now, and he'll most assuredly be the better pitcher in years to come. A terrible, terrible trade for the Mets.
6. C.C. Sabathia, SP, Indians
In some circles, Sabathia is regarded as an ace. He's not. In only one season has Sabathia worked at least 200 innings while maintaining an ERA better than the league average. This season, his ERA has risen to a career-worst 4.75. Sabathia's still only 25, but the time has come to realize his promise.
7. Zack Greinke, SP, Royals
Fits and starts for a pitcher this young are to be expected, but a 6.28 ERA? Greinke was once hailed as the best pitching prospect in baseball, but it's not likely he'll ever live up to those expectations. Why?
Greinke posts low strikeout rates in tandem with fly-ball tendencies. That's a dangerous mix. No matter how good a pitcher's command might be, if he's allowing a lot of balls in play and a lot of those balls are in the air ... well, that's bad. Press clippings aside, don't expect future greatness from Greinke.
8. Ichiro Suzuki, RF, Mariners
Ichiro is a cultural luminary, an important figure in baseball history and a thoroughly likeable and engaging athlete. He also hits for average, runs the bases well and plays an exceptional right field.
However, Ichiro lacks secondary hitting skills. That means he doesn't draw walks and doesn't hit for power.
Because of these deficiencies, he's a player who needs to hit .330 or higher to be effective. Some seasons, he does that, and some seasons he doesn't. When you consider all Ichiro signifies and his global popularity, he's worth the attention he gets. However, through the prism of on-field performance, he's not.
9. Sean Casey, 1B, Reds
Casey's had a handful of good seasons in his career, but he's horribly inconsistent and isn't worth the $7.8 million he's making this season. He's slugging only .440, which isn't impressive for a first baseman playing half his games in Cincinnati. Stat geeks generally overstate Casey's weaknesses, but he's overpaid and overvalued by the organization.
Considering the Reds' outfield/first base bottleneck, they badly need to pass on Casey's 2006 option. He's a useful player, but these days he's best deployed in a reserve/platoon role.
10. Ryan Klesko, LF, Padres
Bad defense? Yep. Bad defense no matter where you stick him? Yep. Hasn't hit for power since 2001? Yep.
Klesko still has good plate discipline, but he does little else to help his team. He was once an excellent player, but his time has passed.
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