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The binnie breakdown: Carl Froch vs Lucien Bute.
This is a genuine 'pick 'em' fight with many, many unknowns. One guy looks to be on the up (Bute) and is striving to cement his place as the pre-eminent fighter at 168 (Andre Ward aside); the other looks to be on the down, coming second in the super six after having his ass handed to him by the two best fighters he's fought (Mikkel Kessler and Andre Ward). Bute is deservedly the favourite. He's been getting sharper and - crucially - more versatile with every fight: not only is he the quicker man here (by some way), he is more mobile, has a greater punch repetoire, and has developed into a tasty body puncher. That's bad news for Froch: much of Kessler's success over him came from working the gut, and Ward made use of that area too, as well as Bute's other successful attrribute - darting in and out of range via speedy footwork. If Bute comes to box, not to brawl, it's a hard night's work for Froch.
But Froch has much going for him. He is ridiculously tough and can come back from adversity (he was 14 seconds away from being beaten by Jerman Taylor). I don't see Bute stopping him, and to get a decision in Froch's home town the points advantage will have to be clear. Froch may have an open defence that Bute will mercilessly exploit, but he also throws his shots from odd angles - if he can avoid loading up and throwing wild ones early on, he could catch Bute and take him out of his rhythm. Froch's plan will be to rough Bute up, as he can't win a boxing match here like he did against Abraham and Johnson. He will take confidence in the fact that he has been in with the better opposition, and that this is a step up for Bute who, whilst certainly an established champion, has spent much of his time in with 'B' level fighters. You never know how some will react to stepping up and not having everything their own way, and Froch could capitalize on that. When I think about Bute, I think about that first fight with Librado Andrade where he should have been KO'd in the 12th (but was saved by the world's slowest counting ref) - Andrade is no puncher, and Froch may have the power to do Bute: indeed, Bute uses his speed to avoid getting hit cleanly but he may find that nullified by Froch's awkwardness.
That being said, however, Bute's team wouldn't be coming to Nottingham if they didn't think that they could win: they clearly see Froch as a stepping stone to mega-fights. I imagine that Bute's mystery 'foot infection' muted several weeks ago was misinformation to fuck with Froch' head - there's no way they're throwing him into this fight if he's not fully mobile. I expect Bute to win via UD after some close rounds early on. When I think of Froch's fights, I think of the problems which Ward's movements caused him, and that of Andre Dirrell (a fight which I against thought Froch lost). Jermain Taylor had similar success until he started gassing out, and I can't help thinking that Froch will eventually be made to look flat footed again on Saturday night.
This is a genuine 'pick 'em' fight with many, many unknowns. One guy looks to be on the up (Bute) and is striving to cement his place as the pre-eminent fighter at 168 (Andre Ward aside); the other looks to be on the down, coming second in the super six after having his ass handed to him by the two best fighters he's fought (Mikkel Kessler and Andre Ward). Bute is deservedly the favourite. He's been getting sharper and - crucially - more versatile with every fight: not only is he the quicker man here (by some way), he is more mobile, has a greater punch repetoire, and has developed into a tasty body puncher. That's bad news for Froch: much of Kessler's success over him came from working the gut, and Ward made use of that area too, as well as Bute's other successful attrribute - darting in and out of range via speedy footwork. If Bute comes to box, not to brawl, it's a hard night's work for Froch.
But Froch has much going for him. He is ridiculously tough and can come back from adversity (he was 14 seconds away from being beaten by Jerman Taylor). I don't see Bute stopping him, and to get a decision in Froch's home town the points advantage will have to be clear. Froch may have an open defence that Bute will mercilessly exploit, but he also throws his shots from odd angles - if he can avoid loading up and throwing wild ones early on, he could catch Bute and take him out of his rhythm. Froch's plan will be to rough Bute up, as he can't win a boxing match here like he did against Abraham and Johnson. He will take confidence in the fact that he has been in with the better opposition, and that this is a step up for Bute who, whilst certainly an established champion, has spent much of his time in with 'B' level fighters. You never know how some will react to stepping up and not having everything their own way, and Froch could capitalize on that. When I think about Bute, I think about that first fight with Librado Andrade where he should have been KO'd in the 12th (but was saved by the world's slowest counting ref) - Andrade is no puncher, and Froch may have the power to do Bute: indeed, Bute uses his speed to avoid getting hit cleanly but he may find that nullified by Froch's awkwardness.
That being said, however, Bute's team wouldn't be coming to Nottingham if they didn't think that they could win: they clearly see Froch as a stepping stone to mega-fights. I imagine that Bute's mystery 'foot infection' muted several weeks ago was misinformation to fuck with Froch' head - there's no way they're throwing him into this fight if he's not fully mobile. I expect Bute to win via UD after some close rounds early on. When I think of Froch's fights, I think of the problems which Ward's movements caused him, and that of Andre Dirrell (a fight which I against thought Froch lost). Jermain Taylor had similar success until he started gassing out, and I can't help thinking that Froch will eventually be made to look flat footed again on Saturday night.
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