Trade War

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  • Seshmeister
    ROTH ARMY WEBMASTER

    • Oct 2003
    • 35754

    Trade War

    “I’m going to get a little wonky and write about Donald Trump and negotiations. For those who don't know, I'm an adjunct professor at Indiana University - Robert H. McKinney School of Law and I teach negotiations. Okay, here goes.

    Trump, as most of us know, is the credited author of "The Art of the Deal," a book that was actually ghost written by a man named Tony Schwartz, who was given access to Trump and wrote based upon his observations. If you've read The Art of the Deal, or if you've followed Trump lately, you'll know, even if you didn't know the label, that he sees all dealmaking as what we call "distributive bargaining."

    Distributive bargaining always has a winner and a loser. It happens when there is a fixed quantity of something and two sides are fighting over how it gets distributed. Think of it as a pie and you're fighting over who gets how many pieces. In Trump's world, the bargaining was for a building, or for construction work, or subcontractors. He perceives a successful bargain as one in which there is a winner and a loser, so if he pays less than the seller wants, he wins. The more he saves the more he wins.

    The other type of bargaining is called integrative bargaining. In integrative bargaining the two sides don't have a complete conflict of interest, and it is possible to reach mutually beneficial agreements. Think of it, not a single pie to be divided by two hungry people, but as a baker and a caterer negotiating over how many pies will be baked at what prices, and the nature of their ongoing relationship after this one gig is over.

    The problem with Trump is that he sees only distributive bargaining in an international world that requires integrative bargaining. He can raise tariffs, but so can other countries. He can't demand they not respond. There is no defined end to the negotiation and there is no simple winner and loser. There are always more pies to be baked. Further, negotiations aren't binary. China's choices aren't (a) buy soybeans from US farmers, or (b) don't buy soybeans. They can also (c) buy soybeans from Russia, or Argentina, or Brazil, or Canada, etc. That completely strips the distributive bargainer of his power to win or lose, to control the negotiation.

    One of the risks of distributive bargaining is bad will. In a one-time distributive bargain, e.g. negotiating with the cabinet maker in your casino about whether you're going to pay his whole bill or demand a discount, you don't have to worry about your ongoing credibility or the next deal. If you do that to the cabinet maker, you can bet he won't agree to do the cabinets in your next casino, and you're going to have to find another cabinet maker.

    There isn't another Canada.

    So when you approach international negotiation, in a world as complex as ours, with integrated economies and multiple buyers and sellers, you simply must approach them through integrative bargaining. If you attempt distributive bargaining, success is impossible. And we see that already.

    Trump has raised tariffs on China. China responded, in addition to raising tariffs on US goods, by dropping all its soybean orders from the US and buying them from Russia. The effect is not only to cause tremendous harm to US farmers, but also to increase Russian revenue, making Russia less susceptible to sanctions and boycotts, increasing its economic and political power in the world, and reducing ours. Trump saw steel and aluminum and thought it would be an easy win, BECAUSE HE SAW ONLY STEEL AND ALUMINUM - HE SEES EVERY NEGOTIATION AS DISTRIBUTIVE. China saw it as integrative, and integrated Russia and its soybean purchase orders into a far more complex negotiation ecosystem.
    Trump has the same weakness politically. For every winner there must be a loser. And that's just not how politics works, not over the long run.
    For people who study negotiations, this is incredibly basic stuff, negotiations 101, definitions you learn before you even start talking about styles and tactics. And here's another huge problem for us.

    Trump is utterly convinced that his experience in a closely held real estate company has prepared him to run a nation, and therefore he rejects the advice of people who spent entire careers studying the nuances of international negotiations and diplomacy. But the leaders on the other side of the table have not eschewed expertise, they have embraced it. And that means they look at Trump and, given his very limited tool chest and his blindly distributive understanding of negotiation, they know exactly what he is going to do and exactly how to respond to it.

    From a professional negotiation point of view, Trump isn't even bringing checkers to a chess match. He's bringing a quarter that he insists of flipping for heads or tails, while everybody else is studying the chess board to decide whether its better to open with Najdorf or Gr?nfeld.”

    — David Honig
    Professor Law and Negotiations
    University of Indiana
  • Seshmeister
    ROTH ARMY WEBMASTER

    • Oct 2003
    • 35754

    #2

    Comment

    • Seshmeister
      ROTH ARMY WEBMASTER

      • Oct 2003
      • 35754

      #3
      I checked so you don't have to.



      The top foreign export partner for Nevada, known to the world for Las Vegas, is Switzerland. Nevada exports $2.7 billion worth of goods, or 31% of the value of the state’s total exports abroad, to the wealthy, landlocked European nation, according to the US Census Bureau.

      The major export: gold. Last year, Nevada exported $3.9 billion worth of gold in total. As seen in the chart below, if the state were a country, it would rank among the top 10 gold exporters globally. Switzerland, where the Swiss Franc is still backed by gold reserves, is the world’s gold hub, refining two-thirds of the world’s gold, by some estimates.


      Who knew?

      Comment

      • FORD
        ROTH ARMY MODERATOR

        • Jan 2004
        • 59619

        #4
        Cheeto is "Making Breakfast Great Again". The price of eggs is already off the charts, and now his idiotic trade wars are coming for the coffee and the maple syrup.
        Eat Us And Smile

        Cenk For America 2024!!

        Justice Democrats


        "If the American people had ever known the truth about what we (the BCE) have done to this nation, we would be chased down in the streets and lynched." - Poppy Bush, 1992

        Comment

        • FORD
          ROTH ARMY MODERATOR

          • Jan 2004
          • 59619

          #5
          Eat Us And Smile

          Cenk For America 2024!!

          Justice Democrats


          "If the American people had ever known the truth about what we (the BCE) have done to this nation, we would be chased down in the streets and lynched." - Poppy Bush, 1992

          Comment

          • ZahZoo
            ROTH ARMY WEBMASTER

            • Jan 2004
            • 9170

            #6
            The article on deal making is spot on...

            We'll see what the next 2 weeks brings, but I'm not optimistic. My gut tells me Trump fucked up by moving too fast and heavy with the tariffs on Mexico and Canada... too big and too wide of a spectrum for both. The threat of tariffs had more power to have gotten Canada & Mexico to the table to negotiate... but now Trump painted him and his ego into a corner that he can't back down without looking like a fucking fool to the world. The China tariffs are just plain useless... they can counter that in so many ways that will cripple the US economy... SMH.
            "If you want to be a monk... you gotta cook a lot of rice...”

            Comment

            • FORD
              ROTH ARMY MODERATOR

              • Jan 2004
              • 59619

              #7

              ...
              Eat Us And Smile

              Cenk For America 2024!!

              Justice Democrats


              "If the American people had ever known the truth about what we (the BCE) have done to this nation, we would be chased down in the streets and lynched." - Poppy Bush, 1992

              Comment

              • FORD
                ROTH ARMY MODERATOR

                • Jan 2004
                • 59619

                #8

                ...
                Eat Us And Smile

                Cenk For America 2024!!

                Justice Democrats


                "If the American people had ever known the truth about what we (the BCE) have done to this nation, we would be chased down in the streets and lynched." - Poppy Bush, 1992

                Comment

                • FORD
                  ROTH ARMY MODERATOR

                  • Jan 2004
                  • 59619

                  #9

                  ...
                  Eat Us And Smile

                  Cenk For America 2024!!

                  Justice Democrats


                  "If the American people had ever known the truth about what we (the BCE) have done to this nation, we would be chased down in the streets and lynched." - Poppy Bush, 1992

                  Comment

                  • FORD
                    ROTH ARMY MODERATOR

                    • Jan 2004
                    • 59619

                    #10
                    Even Ronald Wilson Reagan (666) himself knew better......

                    Eat Us And Smile

                    Cenk For America 2024!!

                    Justice Democrats


                    "If the American people had ever known the truth about what we (the BCE) have done to this nation, we would be chased down in the streets and lynched." - Poppy Bush, 1992

                    Comment

                    • silverfish
                      Foot Soldier
                      • Mar 2007
                      • 606

                      #11
                      Ontario to remove U.S. alcohol from shelves after Trump’s tariffs announcement

                      "“Every year, LCBO sells nearly $1 billion worth of American wine, beer, spirits and seltzers. Not anymore,”
                      Ford said. “There’s never been a better time to choose an amazing Ontario-made or Canadian-made product.”"

                      Full story at:
                      cnbc.com/2025/02/02/ontario-to-remove-us-alcohol-from-shelves-after-trumps-tariffs-announcement.html
                      Originally posted by sadaist
                      I don't mind that one Nickelback song. I just hate the fact that they put it on every album 10 times.

                      Comment

                      • FORD
                        ROTH ARMY MODERATOR

                        • Jan 2004
                        • 59619

                        #12
                        Same thing is happening in BC......

                        Eat Us And Smile

                        Cenk For America 2024!!

                        Justice Democrats


                        "If the American people had ever known the truth about what we (the BCE) have done to this nation, we would be chased down in the streets and lynched." - Poppy Bush, 1992

                        Comment

                        • Kristy
                          DIAMOND STATUS
                          • Aug 2004
                          • 16739

                          #13
                          So Canada is pulling rot gut shit like Jack Daniels off their liquor store shelves. Not going to do shit in the long run.

                          Comment

                          • Kristy
                            DIAMOND STATUS
                            • Aug 2004
                            • 16739

                            #14
                            Meanwhile, Musk is currently pulling a coup. slave FORD could care less.

                            Comment

                            • ZahZoo
                              ROTH ARMY WEBMASTER

                              • Jan 2004
                              • 9170

                              #15
                              Originally posted by Kristy
                              So Canada is pulling rot gut shit like Jack Daniels off their liquor store shelves. Not going to do shit in the long run.
                              True... that's about like all the Canadians unfriending all their US friends and family... oh eh... that'll show em...
                              "If you want to be a monk... you gotta cook a lot of rice...”

                              Comment

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