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Major Race is a Dead Heat
Posted by: Michael Geller, Producer
Created: 9/28/2006 12:00:42 PM
Updated: 9/30/2006 8:00:14 AM
The race for the congressional seat in New York's 26th Congressional district between Congressman Tom Reynolds and businessman Jack Davis is neck and neck according to new scientific polling information.
The survey was commissioned by Channel 2 News and was completed by SurveyUSA. It breaks down as the following:
45% Tom Reynolds (R)
43% Jack Davis (D)
8% Christine Murphy (G)
4% Undecided
The survey was conducted between Monday, September 25th and Wednesday, September 27th. On Tuesday, September 26th the New York State Board of Elections determined Green Party candidate Christine Murphy's candidacy to be invalid. These results are considered by SurveyUSA to still be an accurate snapshot of voter's oppinions during that time frame. They do not, however, say it is an accurate picture of what will happen in November. 2 On Your Side has commissioned a new survey with the two remaining candidates. The results are expected next Thursday.
The survey results represent 491 likely voters from New York's 26th Congressional District. They were chosen using Registration Based Sample from Aristotle International.
Click here to view how the poll breaks down by gender, race, ethnicity and ideology.
Methodology
How this poll was conducted: This SurveyUSA poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using Random Digit Dialed (RDD) sample provided by Survey Sampling, of Fairfield CT, unless otherwise indicated on the individual poll report. All respondents heard the questions asked identically. Within the report, you will find: the geography that was surveyed; the date(s) interviews were conducted and the news organization(s) that paid for the research. The number of respondents who answered each question and the margin of sampling error for each question are provided. Where necessary, responses were weighted according to age, gender, ethnic origin, geographical area and number of adults and number of voice telephone lines in the household, so that the sample would reflect the actual demographic proportions in the population, using most recent U.S.Census estimates. In theory, with the stated sample size, one can say with 95% certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error, in one direction or the other, had the entire universe of respondents been interviewed with complete accuracy. There are other possible sources of error in all surveys that may be more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. These include refusals to be interviewed, question wording and question order, weighting by demographic control data and the manner in which respondents are filtered (such as, determining who is a likely voter). It is difficult to quantify the errors that may result from these factors. Fieldwork for this survey was done by SurveyUSA of Verona, NJ.
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Posted by: Michael Geller, Producer
Created: 9/28/2006 12:00:42 PM
Updated: 9/30/2006 8:00:14 AM
The race for the congressional seat in New York's 26th Congressional district between Congressman Tom Reynolds and businessman Jack Davis is neck and neck according to new scientific polling information.
The survey was commissioned by Channel 2 News and was completed by SurveyUSA. It breaks down as the following:
45% Tom Reynolds (R)
43% Jack Davis (D)
8% Christine Murphy (G)
4% Undecided
The survey was conducted between Monday, September 25th and Wednesday, September 27th. On Tuesday, September 26th the New York State Board of Elections determined Green Party candidate Christine Murphy's candidacy to be invalid. These results are considered by SurveyUSA to still be an accurate snapshot of voter's oppinions during that time frame. They do not, however, say it is an accurate picture of what will happen in November. 2 On Your Side has commissioned a new survey with the two remaining candidates. The results are expected next Thursday.
The survey results represent 491 likely voters from New York's 26th Congressional District. They were chosen using Registration Based Sample from Aristotle International.
Click here to view how the poll breaks down by gender, race, ethnicity and ideology.
Methodology
How this poll was conducted: This SurveyUSA poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using Random Digit Dialed (RDD) sample provided by Survey Sampling, of Fairfield CT, unless otherwise indicated on the individual poll report. All respondents heard the questions asked identically. Within the report, you will find: the geography that was surveyed; the date(s) interviews were conducted and the news organization(s) that paid for the research. The number of respondents who answered each question and the margin of sampling error for each question are provided. Where necessary, responses were weighted according to age, gender, ethnic origin, geographical area and number of adults and number of voice telephone lines in the household, so that the sample would reflect the actual demographic proportions in the population, using most recent U.S.Census estimates. In theory, with the stated sample size, one can say with 95% certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error, in one direction or the other, had the entire universe of respondents been interviewed with complete accuracy. There are other possible sources of error in all surveys that may be more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. These include refusals to be interviewed, question wording and question order, weighting by demographic control data and the manner in which respondents are filtered (such as, determining who is a likely voter). It is difficult to quantify the errors that may result from these factors. Fieldwork for this survey was done by SurveyUSA of Verona, NJ.
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