Strategy! - Libya Edition

[Blaze]

Tripoli witness: Humour amid the fear

Libyan inspired 'Possible Scenarios'

Every day analysts abroad - both Libyan and foreign - have been spinning possible scenarios for Libya's future.

Residents of Tripoli have come up with a set of their own fictitious and humour/terror-based outcomes that are far from the traditional outlook.

These are just a few of what I've come across in recent weeks.


If the coalition air strikes overtly go after the leader himself, Col Gaddafi will press a secret button in his bunker which will detonate bombs across the country and wipe it off the map.

If the regime regains control of all of Libya it will dig a very large hole, put all the opposition in it and burn everyone alive.

The leaders of the opposition in Benghazi are secretly regime loyalists. They will reveal themselves soon and we will discover this was all a big lie.

The Libyan leader and his sons will face the public and the world, apologise for all their wrongdoings and ask for forgiveness.

That last one usually draws a roar of laughter in small circles. It may seem impossible to find humour in times of war and fear - but it happens.

[Blaze]

Lots from The Art of War:

The rush of water, to the point of tossing rocks about. This is shih.

The strike of a hawk, at the killing snap. This is the node.

Shih is like drawing the crossbow.
The node is like pulling the trigger.

chapter 5 SHIH

commentary
Shih is the power inherent in configuration. As Lao Tzu says. water is the softest thing in the world, yet here it tosses rocks about as it cascades through the ravine.

The node is that small junture between the sections of bamboo. It indicates the abrupt momment at which something occurs - the present, between past and future. It must be short: its target is always in motion.

The power of shih comes from combining these two elements. When you pull the trigger of a crossbow, its gradually accumulated energy is released all at once, in one spot.

[Golden AWe]

Are they serious about giving weapons to the rebels? Sure worked well in Afganistan...

[Blaze]

there is an imbargo on arms to Libya. To send arms to the Revolutionist would require an UN resolution. There has been some debate if a neighboring country, specifically Egypt, could send arms legally. I did not follow the debate to conclusion. However IMO, Egypt is real busy right now simply setting up a government. That leaves Tunisia, Algeria, Niger, Chad, and/or Sudan as a possible legal route to arms. Though, as I said, I did not follow the debate to completion.

I know the Revolutionist have a strong desire to do this on their own.
For a while they desperately needed communications. This has some what been solved. They "got" that one on their own.

IMO, when fighting in a fishbowl, such as Libya is at the moment, and the other person has more of what you need, one should acquire the other person's excess.

A focus on acquisition of Gadafi's military supplies would be useful.

Maybe, instead of blowing up the tanks with re-purposed anti air craft missiles, some of the cowboys of the youthful exuberance troupes (YET) of the Revolutionist could swarm and acquire, stealth and acquire or trick and acquire tanks. The YET do not need to know how to fully operate a tank, they just need to know how to drive one and keep it gassed to the loading point.

Acquisition would be a useful focus.


Remember this is what is being worked with.

Libyan armed forces (before unrest)

Service Strength Kit Status
SOURCE: INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES, ECONOMIST

Army
45,000
Tanks: 650 Infantry vehicles: 1,050 APCs: 1,080 Artillery: 2,320
Weak and poorly equipped (mostly conscripts)

Paramilitary
40,000
Little known about equipment
Well-armed and highly trained loyal tribesmen and African mercenaries.

Air force
8,000
Combat: 260 Transport: 83 Helicopters: 117
Well-equipped but poorly run. Planes are old Soviet MiG and French-built Mirage craft.

Air defence
15,000
SAM launchers: 400 Anti-aircraft guns: 440
Status unknown but mainly comprised of conscripts

Navy
8,000
Combat vessels: 17 Patrol craft: 10 Landing craft: 4
Status unknown. Ageing Soviet-built craft


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12692068

I have not read an accounting of what has been destroyed or acquired by the Revolutionist.

[Blaze]

Libyan rebels say airstrike killed 13 of their own

Mohammad Bedrise, a doctor in a nearby hospital, said three burned bodies had been brought in by men who said they had been hit after firing a heavy machine gun in the air in celebration. Idris Kadiki, a 38-year-old mechanical engineer, said he had seen an ambulance and three cars burning after an airstrike.


Waste is not your friend!
You do not play with poop..... because waste is not your friend!

Rebels without training — sometimes even without weapons — have rushed in and out of fighting in a free-for-all for more than six weeks, repeatedly getting trounced by Gadhafi's more heavily armed forces. But ex-military officers who have joined the rebel side have stepped up training efforts and taken a greater role in the fight.

"This unfortunate accident was a mistake that was caused by the rebels' advance during the coalition's attack," Ghoga said. "Now the military leadership that has been organized more effectively recently is working on preventing the recurrence of these accidents."

[Blaze]

...
Rebels control much of eastern Libya, but in the west the only significant city they hold is Misrata, which has been besieged for weeks by Gadhafi forces who have cut off water, power and food supplies.
Medical officials said Saturday that government forces killed 37 civilians over the past two days in an unrelenting campaign of shelling and sniper fire and an attack that burned down the city's main stocks of flour and sugar.
:deep sigh:

...

Rebels control much of eastern Libya, but in the west the only significant city they hold is Misrata, which has been besieged for weeks by Gadhafi forces who have cut off water, power and food supplies.
Medical officials said Saturday that government forces killed 37 civilians over the past two days in an unrelenting campaign of shelling and sniper fire and an attack that burned down the city's main stocks of flour and sugar.

Gadhafi's forces have shelled the city's outskirts and residents are piling into the heart of Misrata, crowding into the homes of relations and even unfinished buildings, the hospital official said. The reports could not be independently confirmed.

...

Gadhafi's government is trying to hold talks with the U.S., Britain and France in hopes of ending the air campaign, said Abdul-Ati al-Obeidi, a former Libyan prime minister who has served as a Gadhafi envoy during the crisis. "We are trying to find a mutual solution," he told Britain's Channel 4 News on Friday.

...

At the same time, Libyan officials scoffed at the rebels' offer of a cease-fire. The rebels set one condition: that Gadhafi pulls his military forces out of cities and allows peaceful protests against his regime.
"You are not making peace if you are making impossible demands," government spokesman Moussa Ibrahim said. "It's a trick, it's a trick. I could say to the rebels, I offer you peace — get out of Benghazi on a ship. This is my condition. You can't do that."

That is kind of an odd phrasing and speech.

[Blaze]

Rebel forces are pressing on to the front line around the Libyan oil town of Brega, BBC correspondents say. More uniformed and better disciplined soldiers seem to be bolstering the usual disorganised rebel fighters, they add

...

Top US military officer Adm Mike Mullen says coalition attacks have destroyed about 25% of the Libyan military's capabilities

...

British officials have questioned Libyan Foreign Minister Moussa Koussa, who fled to the UK on Thursday after resigning his post


A number of close advisers to Col Gaddafi have reportedly left Libya and are awaiting flights out of Tunisia, reports say

0642 The British government has confirmed to the BBC that a senior aide to Col Gaddafi's son, Saif al-Islam, has been in London for a series of talks. Details are scant, but reports in the Middle East suggest Saif al-Islam Gaddafi may have a plan to offer himself as a transitional leader, giving his father the chance to step down. Added to the reported government defections, this has raised rebel hopes, but there has been no sign from Tripoli that Col Gaddafi has any intention of giving up power.


0742 On the issue of the defection of Libya's foreign minister, human rights lawyer Geoffrey Robertson says the British government can offer Moussa Koussa a plea-bargain, but it has to avoid offering him immunity, which would be illegal in international law. Mr Koussa is a man of infinite treachery, has been accused of involvement in the Lockerbie bombing as well as the torture and killing of Libyan dissidents, the QC tells the BBC news Channel, so nothing he says can be taken at face value.

It is best to negotiate charges before others do. The sooner one steps up the better plea-bargain one will get.

0747 How is the war in Libya being funded? Early on in the rebellion, Col Gaddafi's government reportedly gave away 500 dinars ($400; £250) to every family, and said it would raise state salaries by up to 150%. Some loyalists in Tripoli were given as much as 17,000 dinars, a new car and a weapon. And foreign mercenaries, of whom there are thousands, were reportedly being paid as much as $10,000 to sign on, with a daily wage of up to $1,000. For more details,

0752 In Libya's capital, Tripoli,
the atmosphere is tense,
with shortages of money, fuel and bread. "For those who have been nervously watching scenes on their televisions of the rebels advancing then retreating over and over again, the sense of a stalemate that could prolong the conflict has been gradually sinking in - rather depressingly," one resident tells the BBC.

0809 From Tripoli, our world affairs editor John Simpson says there is no sign whatsoever of the system collapsing, although he adds that often in situations like these the first sign of a government collapse is when it actually happens.

0854Back to Libya now, with LibyaFeb17_com tweeting: "Gaddafi regime quietly putting guards at key positions to prevent defections."
Help them escape.

0916 Our colleagues at BBC Monitoring report that Libyan intelligence chief Abuzayd Umar Durdah has called into Libyan state TV denying claims he had defected. He called into a live discussion programme on the state-owned Al-Jamahiriyah TV channel late on Thursday night, saying: "I don't have one reason to depart the homeland or to betray the people or the leader and the victorious revolution he is leading."

0922 What can we discern from the fighting in Libya? The Economist argues the only emerging pattern is one of wildly see-sawing fortunes, as coastal towns change hands with almost metronomic regularity.
In a leader this week,
the paper argues the coalition's priorities are to halt the advance of loyalist troops, bring some relief to the civilians in Misrata and encourage members of the regime to start looking for a way out.

Sidenote> 0954 Britons are being advised to get out of Yemen, with the UK Foreign Office tweeting: "#Yemen: We strongly urge British nationals to leave now by commercial means. Contact details for airlines in Yemen:http://ow.ly/4qY7p It's highly unlikely that the British government will be able to evacuate you or provide consular assistance if you do not leave now "

1000 Pro-Gaddafi forces have sown land mines in areas around rebel-held Ajdabiya, adding a dangerous new element to the war on the eastern front, human rights and mine experts are quoted as telling Reuters.

016 Over at the Informed Comment blog, Professor Juan Cole
has an interesting take on the impact of Moussa Koussa's defection.
Its importance, he argues, "lies in its being a sign of the winds shifting against Qaddafi with his inner circle, which will affect the loyalty of his outer circle of tribal leaders".

1052 LibyanDictator tweets: "BREAKING: Violent clashes in #Misrata as Gaddafi brigades attempt to push further into city using heavy shelling and mortars."

1213 Meanwhile, Qatar is set to provide fuel, medicine, food and other humanitarian needs to Libya's rebels as part of a deal to market oil from rebel-held eastern Libya, a top rebel finance official is quoted as telling Reuters.

1217 The Arab League has thrown its weight behind Libya's rebel forces. Hisham Youssef, who was the bloc's representative at this week's London conference on the future of Libya, said the Arab League would support whatever end to the conflict satisfies Libya's opposition. "If the opposition is satisfied then we will be satisfied," Mr Youssef told Radio 4's World at One. "And from our contacts with them, it seems that they will only be satisfied when they see regime change."

1236 Perhaps this is better news from the International Committee of the Red Cross in Libya. ICRC officials are in Tripoli at the invitation of Libya's authorities discussing how to expand humanitarian activities nationwide. "The organisation stands ready to assess the situation from a humanitarian viewpoint in some of the worst-affected areas in order to meet the most pressing needs of vulnerable people," said the ICRC in a statement.

1259 This just in from our colleagues over at the Today programme, who have just conducted an interview with Libyan Oil Minister Shukri Ghanim.
The former prime minister denies that he's defected from the regime,
telling Today presenter Justin Webb that he remains loyal to the Gadaffi regime.

1329 The BBC's Nick Springate reports from Libya's eastern town of Brega that for the first time, rag-tag rebel forces have been bolstered by a number of well-armed, seemingly well-trained soldiers in full military attire. It's not clear where they've come from, our correspondent says, but their very presence has boosted morale on the front line. "


1336 Our correspondent says the rebels are now starting a major onslaught on Brega, having given a boisterous reception to two key rebel figures - the former interior minister and the former head of the armed forces. Brega's significance is as one of the major oil towns on the route to Col Gaddafi's birthplace of Sirte, our correspondent adds.

1405 As if the unrest reverberating around the Mediterranean coastline wasn't enough, the region has just been hit by more shockwaves in the form of a magnitude 6.2 earthquake centred beneath the island of Crete.

1409 Back to Libya now, where Libya Feb 17 tweets: "Opp. official says Qatar agreed to give revolutionaries money to buy weapons in exchange for oil - #libya #feb17 - http://t.co/eWhA75f."


1435 This just in from the US: The CIA has sent a small, covert team into rebel-held eastern Libya while the White House debates whether to arm the opposition,<-no believe
NPR reports.
The operatives are in Libya to gather intelligence to help direct Nato airstrikes and to help train inexperienced rebel fighters, it says. <- yes

1444 An update on Emam al-Obeidi, the woman who burst into a Tripoli hotel on Saturday to tell foreign journalists that she'd been raped by Col Gaddafi's soldiers, before being dragged out of the hotel by security officials. She hasn't been seen since. Her parents have told the BBC they're sad about what happened, and that they're proud of their daughter. ~`~

1517 Spain says it will create and fund two humanitarian "land corridors" to send aid to the rebel-stronghold of Benghazi in eastern Libya. Secretary of State for Co-operation Soraya Rodriguez says Madrid has struck a deal with the Arab Medical Association, based in Cairo, which will convey humanitarian supplies.

1524Hiefa, who has contacts in Misrata tells the BBC: "Now there is a battle between the rebels and Gaddafi's force in Misrata in the heavy transport road. Gaddafi's forces have been able to access the main warehouses of goods supply. They are bombing the fuel and water stores. At the same time, Gaddafi's forces are bombing the city centre heavily and randomly. {edited for length}

1531 Nato says sandstorms have been hampering its ability to identify air strike targets in Libya, although the weather was said to be improving on Friday.

sidenote>1600 Arab affairs commentator Sultan Al Qassemi tweets: "Radio Sawa: Eyewitness says Bashar's "baltagiya" (thug) security officers were dressed in civilian clothes & all wore a blue ribbon #Syria"

1606 Following on from Spain's announcement that it will fund "humanitarian corridors" to Benghazi, the EU now says it will mount a military operation to support humanitarian assistance - if asked to by the UN - called EUFOR Libya.

1631 Back now to Libya: Gunfire has been heard near Col Gaddafi's fortified compound in
Tripoli, Reuters reports. Resident said they saw snipers on rooftops and pools of blood on the streets. The reports cannot be verified.

1655 adeb91 tweets: "Revolutionaries retook #brega #libya today, as professional fighter moved to front lines, more organised and better equipped today. #feb17"

1659 We're ending our live coverage for the day,

[Blaze]

This could take time, partly because the Libyan leader is said to have built up a huge reserve of funds that he is now drawing on.

The International Monetary Fund has estimated the value of Libya's gold reserves at $6bn (£4bn). And Ibrahim Dabbashi, the Libyan deputy representative to the UN who has defected to the rebels, says the cash reserves, which would be easier to use for direct payments, are worth "tens of billions".

He says it was widely believed among senior Libyan officials that a stash of this money and gold was moved to the Libyan south in shipping containers during the 1990s.

"Now we know clearly that these amounts are being used for financing the recruitment of mercenaries, for buying armaments, and for financing the war," Mr Dabbashi said.

Burn it~

...

Gaddafi handouts
It is not known how fast Col Gaddafi might be getting through his funds, but he has certainly been displaying new levels of largesse.


Fuel shortages have been reported in Tripoli
Early on in the rebellion his government gave away 500 dinars ($400; £250) to every family, and said it would raise state salaries by up to 150%.

Some loyalists in Tripoli were given as much as 17,000 dinars, a new car and a weapon.

And foreign mercenaries, of whom there are thousands, were reportedly being paid as much as $10,000 to sign on, with a daily wage of up to $1,000.

In one sign that it was under pressure the Libyan central bank has begun recirculating old, large banknotes.

Fuel shortages have also been reported, though Mr Priddy said that as long as Col Gaddafi retained control of the Azzawiya refinery, he was likely to have enough petrol for military operations.

...

[Blaze]

Libya holding huge gold reserves IMF data show


Libya has declared gold reserves worth more than $6bn at current prices, thought to be held largely at home.

The reserves are substantial, ranking in the global top 25, according to International Monetary Fund (IMF) data.

They could potentially be used to finance Colonel Gaddafi's government at a time when it is subject to international financial sanctions.

It might be possible to transport the gold to other African countries and sell it.

Sahara Desert
This is rather speculative, it must be said, but the gold could in principle generate millions of dollars in revenue, which could be used for example to pay foreign fighters.

Raising cash this way would face challenges.

Transport out of Libya would be difficult - using the country's Mediterranean ports would be too dangerous with military action under way.

Continue reading the main story
Forex Gold Index(pm fix) $/oz
LAST UPDATED AT 01 APR 2011, 11:20 ET

price change %
1418.00 -
-21.00
-
-1.46
The alternatives would involve the crossing of borders with other African countries in the Sahara Desert.

It's also unlikely that Libya could get anything close to the international market price for any gold disposed of in this kind of unconventional way.

Nonetheless, there are possibilities for a government desperate to raise funds.

The gold reserves that Libya could dip into are very large for what is a small country in terms of population - with six million people - and in terms of economic activity.

Shrewd investment
The IMF data show Libya's reserves to be 4.6 million ounces, a figure of nearly 144 tons. At current market prices the value is over $6bn.

There are twenty countries with larger gold reserves. But, with the exception of Lebanon, they are all much richer or much larger in population.

Britain for example has twice as much gold, but ten times the population and an economy more than 30 times the size.

A closer comparison is Algeria, which is, like Libya, a North African oil producer - it has 20% more gold reserves, but more than five times the population.

So why does Libya have such a large holding of the precious metal?

Given how the the gold price has climbed in recent years, you might argue that it is the result of shrewd investment decisions.

But Colonel Gaddafi does have past experience of being on the receiving end of international sanctions.

So the fondness for gold could well reflect a desire to have an asset that can be kept at home, away from foreign enemies.

It is not one that is easy to turn into cash in current circumstances.

But it is more usable than financial assets or stakes in firms in the countries that are trying to starve him of funds.

[Blaze]

http://www.economist.com/node/18488264

[Blaze]

Lotted from The Art of War

One skilled at moving the enemy

Forms and the enemy must follow,
Offers and the enemy must take.

chap5 SHIH

commentary
Do not fight head-on. Instead, shape the ground. This narrows the other's course of action, leading them where you want. They have no alternative. If your offer is made from the perspective of victory, they choose it as if it were their own idea. This is skill.

[Blaze]

No updates today. Reviewing some pages.

Lots - Two fell.

The Art of War

Invincibility is defense.
Vincibility is attack.
Defend and one has surplus.
Attack and one is insufficient.

chap4 FORM

Commentary
A conventional military logic might say: "Attack when you have a surplus; defend when you are insufficient." This maintains a commitment to gaining victory through attack. By contrast, The Art of War points to the vulnerability of attack and the subtle power of defense.

The Art of War

Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.

Invincibility lies in oneself.
Vincibility lies in the enemy.

chap4 FORM

commentary
Prepare conditions of invincibility within your own sphere. But this is not yet victory. You must wait for the enemy's vincibility to arise. Sjill is knowing that moment.

[Blaze]

I have reviewed the origins of ntclibya.org to the best of my ability. There is limited information. Registrant Name:Identity Protection Service
However, the information appears useful, up to date, and analysis of the data availed shows no red flags.

The site and related feeds exhibit an expected volunteer exuberance and novice.

http://ntclibya.org

[Blaze]

[Blaze]

Media

Photo Gallery: The photo gallery does not provide descriptions.
- The descriptions written are my observations.



If I recall my ships correctly ( and I do not think I do) It appears the Revolutionist have commandeered at least one Frigger.