New CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll

[Jerry Falwell]

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Choice for President

Likely Registered
Voters Voters

Bush 52% 49%
Kerry 44 46
Nader 1 1
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What's going on here. I though that Kerry had this one locked down according to the news channels.

[Warham]

The only thing Kerry has locked down are his plans for his plans.

[BigBadBrian]

Originally posted by Warham
The only thing Kerry has locked down are his plans for his plans.

Yeah, if one can only determine which plan is currently the "plan" of the moment:

[Pink Spider]

A quick unscientific poll:

Is anyone else getting tired of biased party supporters finding polls declaring their candidate a winner?

1) Yes
2) No
3) Maybe
4) I refuse to answer

[FORD]

What gives is that George Gallup is rolling in his grave.

Gallup polls used to be reliable back when old George was in charge. But it's since been sold to biased right wingers (big surprise there)

[ELVIS]

Here's the entire article...


CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Choice for President

Likely Registered
Voters Voters

Bush 52% 49%
Kerry 44 46
Nader 1 1

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

FOR RELEASE: Sunday, October 17 at noon

Interviews with 1,013 adult Americans, including 788 likely voters and 942 registered voters, conducted by telephone on October 14-16, 2004

Although Americans think John Kerry did the best job in the debates, that has not translated into an increase in his popularity, which in turn means that he appears to have lost a little ground to Bush. Among registered voters, a 48%-48% tie is now a 49%-46% edge for Bush -- not much of a difference and, with the sampling error, not a significant change. The Gallup likely voter model, which identified those respondents who are most likely to cast a ballot, is magnifying those shifts, with a 49%-48% advantage for Kerry turning into a 52%-44% lead for Bush. What's going on?

For one thing, the charge that Kerry is too liberal, which Bush emphasized mostly in the third and last debate on Wednesday night, seems to be sticking. Nearly half say Kerry's political views are too liberal. (Four in ten say Bush is too conservative.) But didn't Kerry win the debate? Yes, as with the first two debates, the public thinks Kerry did the better job on Wednesday night. But as Al Gore learned in 2000, winning a debate on points does not necessarily translate into votes or make a candidate more popular. As in 2000, Bush's favorable ratings -- Americans view of him as a person -- went up after a debate that he lost. Kerry's favorable rating has remained flat. Republicans seem more enthusiastic about the election, and thus more likely to vote, as reflected in the Gallup likely voter model.

Bush may have energized his base in the final debate at the expense of not appealing to a wider audience -- but he managed to do so in a way that made him more popular than Kerry.

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Likely Voters'
Choice for President

Now Oct. 9-10

Bush 52% 48%
Kerry 44 49
Nader 1 1

Sampling error: +/-4% pts

QUESTION: Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates, and Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo as independent candidates. Would you vote for Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats,Bush and Cheney, the Republicans, or Nader and Camejo, the independent candidates?

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Favorable Ratings

Now Oct. 9-10
Bush 55% 51%
Kerry 52 52

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Opinion of George W. Bush

Now Oct. 9-10
Favorable 55% 51%
Unfavorable 44 46
Sampling error: +/-3% pts

QUESTION: Next, we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people -- or if you have never heard of them. A. George W. Bush B. John Kerry

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Kerry's Political Views

Too liberal 47%
About right 38
Too conservative 9

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Bush's Political Views

Too liberal 14%
About right 41
Too conservative 40

[Warham]

The media is trumping up Kerry's chances I believe, to make this election more 'exciting' and keep people watching. I don't believe it's as close as some networks make it appear.

[Warham]

Bush surges in poll
By USA TODAY staff
WASHINGTON — With just two weeks left until Election Day, President Bush surged to an eight-point lead over Democratic challenger John Kerry in the latest USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup national poll, a margin comparable to one he enjoyed immediately before the three presidential debates. (Related link: Poll results)
In a poll taken Thursday-Saturday, Bush received 52% support from likely voters, Kerry received 44% and independent Ralph Nader received 1%. Three percent of likely voters had no opinion. The poll was based on a survey of 788 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points.

The 52-44 spread is identical to the margin Bush enjoyed in the USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup poll immediately before the debates. The survey shows significant movement since the last USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup poll, taken Oct. 9-10, which showed Kerry with 49% support to Bush's 48% and Nader's 1%.

Bush regained a lead in the poll even though a plurality of likely voters thought Kerry won last Wednesday's debate — 47% for Kerry to 35% for Bush.

But the percentage of likely voters who view Bush favorably climbed in the past week from 51% to 58%, while the number who viewed Kerry favorably stayed at the 51% level.

Kerry also finds himself battling the Bush campaign's attempts to label him as too liberal. Among likely voters, half (52%) say Kerry's political views are too liberal. Conversely, 41% of likely voters see Bush as too conservative.

Bush also has a lead in other recent polls. A Newsweek poll released Friday gave Bush 50% to Kerry's 44%; a Time magazine poll released the same day gave Bush a 48-47 edge; Friday's poll from The Washington Post gave Bush a 50-47 advantage and a Zogby poll released Friday gave Bush 48% and Kerry 44%.

The USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup poll is based on interviews with 1,013 national adults. The poll has a margin of error of between 3% and 5%, depending on the question.

[tobinentinc]

You liberals are going to be blown away by the results of this election. Bush is going to take this election by a large margin, even with the voter fraud the dems are already planning, just like in 2000.

Bush in '04!

[jcook11]

Hey Ford I thought"OLD GEORGE is in charge

[FORD]

Originally posted by jcook11
Hey Ford I thought"OLD GEORGE is in charge

I was referring to George Gallup, not George Bush Sr.

As to whether Poppy participates in the election fraud this year or not, that's a tossup.

Junior really pissed him off by going against his advice (as a father, a CIA veteran and an ex President) on the Iraq mess (see my signature for Poppy's views on invading Iraq).

[steve]

Polls are all off by about 5 to 10%.
The reason: cell phones.
Aproximately 20-30% of the country now does not even ANSWER their land line phones - and this will be the first major spotlight election where this is true (cell phone use wasn't to this extreme in 2000).
Pollsters do not have access to ANY cell phones.
People that ONLY use their cell phones are disproportionally young and liberal.
News stories are popping up by the day - Zogby has a couple stories about it now on his, and there were articles on CNN and Rueters a few days ago. There are many quotations the pollsters themselves who are seriously concerned about massive innacuracies in their polling because of this - it's not just my opinion, it's theirs.
Furthermore, there are record numbers (who are also disproportionally democrat and liberal) of new voters on the registers whom pollsters have no way to contact because they go by old info from previous elections.

If you don't beleive me, start reading about it and thinking about it yourself.

Provided nothing big happens in the next two weeks, I think we're looking at a 5% popular vote win by Kerry...however, it will still be close e.c. wise.

[FORD]

Steve's right.

I don't even OWN a land line phone anymore. Don't need one. My home PC is on cable, and I have a cell phone which is more than enough for night and weekend use. And if I had to, I still have my last cordless phone which was specifically designed for VOIP calls, so I could use that as well.

Good news is I'm not harrassed by telemarketers anymore.

Bad news is I don't get polled either.

But then nobody I know who HAS landlines has been polled either, so I'm really wondering where it is they're calling

[Warham]

I'm young, Republican, and have a cell phone.

I guess Steve's research didn't include me.

[steve]

Originally posted by Warham
I'm young, Republican, and have a cell phone.

I guess Steve's research didn't include me.

Hey, don't take my word for it. Google search some news articles and read for yourself and make up your own mind.

That said, we're talking stats here - not 100 to zero. My guess would be a solid majority of those that just use their cells are younger and more liberal.