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Clinton, Giuliani lead in national polling
Clinton, Giuliani lead in national polling
Written by Staff
Monday, 26 March 2007
Zogby: Giuliani, Clinton Hold Big Leads in National Tests
Edwards holds in third place among Dems; Fred Thompson could be a GOPer worth watching
Republican Rudy Giuliani and Democrat Hillary Clinton, both of New York state, continue to enjoy significant leads over rivals in national tests of likely primary voters, a new Zogby International telephone poll shows. Meanwhile, Giuliani’s edge among Republicans is now more than double that of his nearest rival.
Clinton holds a double–digit 32% to 22% lead over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, with former senator John Edwards a distant third in a national test of Democratic likely voters. The survey was the first national poll to be fielded following Friday’s announcement by Edwards that he would continue his campaign despite a new cancer diagnosis facing his wife, Elizabeth. Twenty–four percent of Democrats said they were as yet undecided.
Among Republicans, Giuliani, a moderate, continues to show strength and Arizona Sen. John McCain continues to struggle to build a foundation of support. The former New York mayor now leads over McCain, 27% to 13%.
The survey, conducted March 22-26, 2007, included 432 Democratic respondents (margin of error of +/- 4.8 percentage point) and 376 Republicans (margin of error +/- 5.2 percentage points).
Democrats
Clinton -- 32%
Obama -- 22%
Edwards -- 13%
Biden -- 2%
Richardson -- 2%
Kucinich -- 1%
Not Sure -- 24%
Republicans
Giuliani -- 27%
McCain -- 13%
F. Thompson -- 9%
Romney -- 9%
Paul -- 3%
T. Thompson -- 1%
Huckabee -- 1%
Hunter -- 1%
Tancredo -- 1%
Not sure -- 28%
* Other candidates were included in the survey, but only those winning at least 1% support are included in these charts.
In an early January Zogby telephone survey, the race was much closer – Giuliani led 21% to 17%. McCain hit his high water mark in another telephone survey just over a month ago but still trailed Giuliani, 29% to 20%. In this latest survey, 28% of Republicans said they are unsure whom they would support for the presidential nomination.
In the Democratic race, Obama is nearly even with Clinton among men (Clinton leads 28% to 26%, with Edwards at 11%), but Clinton remains well ahead among Democratic women (she leads with 35%, compared to 19% for Obama and 15% for Edwards). Among Democratic men, 21% are undecided, while 26% of Dem women said the same.
Among African–American Democrats, 40% remain undecided, up from 35% in the Zogby International telephone survey taken late last month. Another 30% support Clinton, while 19% back Obama. In last month’s survey, Obama had 36% support, compared to 26% for Clinton among the demographic group. In an early January Zogby International poll, Hillary led among African–Americans, 43%, compared to 16% for Obama. In that survey, 15% were undecided, and another 15% said they supported former Vice President Al Gore. Gore has since reiterated his decision not to run for President, and has been removed from the Zogby presidential poll.
Among another key demographic group for the Democratic nomination – white women – Hillary maintains a solid lead. She wins 33% support, compared to 20% for Edwards and 18% for Obama.
Obama enjoys an eight–point, 30% to 22% lead over Clinton among progressives (Edwards wins 18%) and a 29% to 25% edge over Clinton among liberals, where Edwards wins 17%. But the new Zogby telephone poll shows Clinton wins over Obama among moderates, 33% to 21%, while Edwards wins 14% of the moderate democratic support.
On the GOP side of the aisle, actor–turned–senator–turned–actor Fred Thompson wins 9% support, tying Mitt Romney of Massachusetts. Thompson’s support comes from those Republicans who consider themselves “very conservative,” where he wins 19% support and nearly ties Giuliani, who leads the demographic group with 21%. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts finishes third among the very conservative with 16%, while McCain finishes fourth with 7% support.
Among mainline conservatives, Giuliani leads second-place McCain by a 31% to 15%, with Thompson winning 10% support.
In the Republican race, Giuliani holds big leads among both men and women, but women are much more on the fence. Among men, he leads with 33%, followed by McCain with 17%, Thompson with 12%, Romney with 9%, and 19% unsure. Among women, Giuliani wins 22%, while McCain wins 9%, Romney wins 8%, and Thompson and Ron Paul win 6% each. Fully 38% of Republican women are undecided on who they would support for their party’s nomination.
These poll numbers are important because the race for supporters and campaign contributions is a national effort, said Pollster John Zogby. But state-by-state primaries and caucuses will determine who will be the parties’w standard-bearers in the 2008 presidential race. Zogby International will release the results from a series of telephone polls in key early states over the next several weeks, starting Wednesday.
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Written by Staff
Monday, 26 March 2007
Zogby: Giuliani, Clinton Hold Big Leads in National Tests
Edwards holds in third place among Dems; Fred Thompson could be a GOPer worth watching
Republican Rudy Giuliani and Democrat Hillary Clinton, both of New York state, continue to enjoy significant leads over rivals in national tests of likely primary voters, a new Zogby International telephone poll shows. Meanwhile, Giuliani’s edge among Republicans is now more than double that of his nearest rival.
Clinton holds a double–digit 32% to 22% lead over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, with former senator John Edwards a distant third in a national test of Democratic likely voters. The survey was the first national poll to be fielded following Friday’s announcement by Edwards that he would continue his campaign despite a new cancer diagnosis facing his wife, Elizabeth. Twenty–four percent of Democrats said they were as yet undecided.
Among Republicans, Giuliani, a moderate, continues to show strength and Arizona Sen. John McCain continues to struggle to build a foundation of support. The former New York mayor now leads over McCain, 27% to 13%.
The survey, conducted March 22-26, 2007, included 432 Democratic respondents (margin of error of +/- 4.8 percentage point) and 376 Republicans (margin of error +/- 5.2 percentage points).
Democrats
Clinton -- 32%
Obama -- 22%
Edwards -- 13%
Biden -- 2%
Richardson -- 2%
Kucinich -- 1%
Not Sure -- 24%
Republicans
Giuliani -- 27%
McCain -- 13%
F. Thompson -- 9%
Romney -- 9%
Paul -- 3%
T. Thompson -- 1%
Huckabee -- 1%
Hunter -- 1%
Tancredo -- 1%
Not sure -- 28%
* Other candidates were included in the survey, but only those winning at least 1% support are included in these charts.
In an early January Zogby telephone survey, the race was much closer – Giuliani led 21% to 17%. McCain hit his high water mark in another telephone survey just over a month ago but still trailed Giuliani, 29% to 20%. In this latest survey, 28% of Republicans said they are unsure whom they would support for the presidential nomination.
In the Democratic race, Obama is nearly even with Clinton among men (Clinton leads 28% to 26%, with Edwards at 11%), but Clinton remains well ahead among Democratic women (she leads with 35%, compared to 19% for Obama and 15% for Edwards). Among Democratic men, 21% are undecided, while 26% of Dem women said the same.
Among African–American Democrats, 40% remain undecided, up from 35% in the Zogby International telephone survey taken late last month. Another 30% support Clinton, while 19% back Obama. In last month’s survey, Obama had 36% support, compared to 26% for Clinton among the demographic group. In an early January Zogby International poll, Hillary led among African–Americans, 43%, compared to 16% for Obama. In that survey, 15% were undecided, and another 15% said they supported former Vice President Al Gore. Gore has since reiterated his decision not to run for President, and has been removed from the Zogby presidential poll.
Among another key demographic group for the Democratic nomination – white women – Hillary maintains a solid lead. She wins 33% support, compared to 20% for Edwards and 18% for Obama.
Obama enjoys an eight–point, 30% to 22% lead over Clinton among progressives (Edwards wins 18%) and a 29% to 25% edge over Clinton among liberals, where Edwards wins 17%. But the new Zogby telephone poll shows Clinton wins over Obama among moderates, 33% to 21%, while Edwards wins 14% of the moderate democratic support.
On the GOP side of the aisle, actor–turned–senator–turned–actor Fred Thompson wins 9% support, tying Mitt Romney of Massachusetts. Thompson’s support comes from those Republicans who consider themselves “very conservative,” where he wins 19% support and nearly ties Giuliani, who leads the demographic group with 21%. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts finishes third among the very conservative with 16%, while McCain finishes fourth with 7% support.
Among mainline conservatives, Giuliani leads second-place McCain by a 31% to 15%, with Thompson winning 10% support.
In the Republican race, Giuliani holds big leads among both men and women, but women are much more on the fence. Among men, he leads with 33%, followed by McCain with 17%, Thompson with 12%, Romney with 9%, and 19% unsure. Among women, Giuliani wins 22%, while McCain wins 9%, Romney wins 8%, and Thompson and Ron Paul win 6% each. Fully 38% of Republican women are undecided on who they would support for their party’s nomination.
These poll numbers are important because the race for supporters and campaign contributions is a national effort, said Pollster John Zogby. But state-by-state primaries and caucuses will determine who will be the parties’w standard-bearers in the 2008 presidential race. Zogby International will release the results from a series of telephone polls in key early states over the next several weeks, starting Wednesday.
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