If/when we go to war with Iran

[Terry]

From what I've read, the Iranian people are much more unified in terms of wanting to nationalize a nuclear weapons program...and may be less willing to heed to the US request to stand down, and the mindset, according to some, is that for them being attacked in some respects is preferrable to capitulating to America over the issue.

They have us by the balls over oil far more than Iraq ever did.

All indications are that Iran is a far more problematic situation than Iraq, and everything I'm hearing these days sounds like a repeat of the runup to what happened in Iraq, without the remote possibility we have in Iraq that things might go the way we want them to. Seems like deja vu from the summer of 2002 to the spring of 2003 all over again, with no upside to boot! To think any of these people in the present administration are gonna vigorously pursue the diplomatic track is erroneous; all the same key players and philosophy are in place, without even the timid voice of Powell (what a fuckin' disASter he turned out to be) urging caution this time around.

Recently heard something that seems so obvious, but I hadn't thought about, which is what happens after we finally leave Iraq? Even if we get a government in place that we approve of, what's to stop it from crumbling once the troops are gone? The 'democracy' we bring to Iraq could have a shelf-life of all of 5 minutes once it's over.

And bueno brings up another excellent point; suppose we DO go to war with Iran, and it goes beyond surgical air strikes and we have to put troops on the ground...where the fuck are we going to GET them? Are we gonna start forcing troops in Iraq on their 2nd and 3rd duties to jump over to Iran? How many do we have over there now...100-200k? How many of them are gonna re-enlist? How many are gonna put in four years in Iraq and get out at the first opportunity?


And we've toally taken our eyes off the ball regarding China for the last 6 1/2 years, which has the potential to do far more harm to us than Iraq, Iran and N.Korea put together.


I can live with Iran having a nuclear weapon. Other nations have lived with us having them for a half century plus, and we're the only nation on the planet to have ever used atomic weapons. NOBODY wants to push the button and ignite the big stupid.

You wanna go after terrorists, fine. That's what the special forces arefor. You want regime change, fine. That's what assassinations are for.

Those are my half-baked theories, anyway.

[lazlor]

ok, a number of things.... good bad and ugly...

bad - iran's army is far superior to what we rolled across next door in Iraq. They have Russian and Chinese ground to air defenses, along with a semi formidible airforce. Their standing army would wipe Hussein's men all over the floor today if the fight happened again and hussein was still in power...

that being said..

the good - everyone, and i mean everyone, left right and middle say that a ground war in Iran would be insane. We would get hung up on their defenses on the shoreline of the gulf, and they have been training the last several years for asymetrical warfare (read: insurgency/guerilla warfare)... which leads to this: there are no, none, nada, zero plans to invade Iran. (well, i'm sure they exist somewhere, but they arent anywhere near the table now).. to punish Iran, air strikes would be used... f15s, 16s, 18s would be used to take out their airdefenses on the first several days, along with the b2 and f117a... then bombing runs would be used for the next several days/weeks... using cruise missiles, 500, and 1000lb guided and dumb bombloads on the bombers.. if the air is truly ours, they may decide to use a few blu's to killl some of the deeper bunkers... but the air would HAVE to be ours as those are dropped from slow moving planes (it's like a 2000lb bomb....)

the ugly of the situation? easy.. Iran has invested a LOT of money the last year or so in their "coast guard" a group of speedboats, which could be used to sink tankers/our ships in the straights of hormuz, thereby closing the shipping lane... effectively doubling the price of oil overnight.

dont worry, we wont go into Iran by land.. there is no feasible way to do that without any sort of protracted conflict, and noone in the DoD or elsewhere has the stomach for that.

The only questions are: will the bombing runs be effective, will it lead to a overthrow of the govt from the inside, will the shipping lanes get shut, will hezbullah go by their words from last week ( essentially said Iran is a big boy, and Hez wont need to step in to fight israel if something happens), willl Iran awaken any sleeper cells around he world?

...... a lot to chew on.. but it CAN be done....

[Redballjets88]

im pretty sure we would rape them, their technology cant even compare to our, and im pretty sure we would easily find a way to immobilize there "coast guard", in general we can pretty much rape any army on earth, the only difference between them all is the amount of time it would take, i.e. china would take forever

[sadaist]

Originally posted by Terry

I can live with Iran having a nuclear weapon. Other nations have lived with us having them for a half century plus, and we're the only nation on the planet to have ever used atomic weapons. NOBODY wants to push the button and ignite the big stupid.

In our minds. Remember that these are people who go straight to heaven dying in battle. We wouldn't strap explosives to a womans stomach either, but they do all the time. They have a totally different mindset. Iran having a nuke scares the hell out of me. Not as in it being lobbed over here. But having it hit anywhere. I don't want to see it happen. Are they as close as our govt says? I doubt it. Would they like to have nukes? Sure. Other countries don't fuck with you if you've got the nasty.

[Redballjets88]

if iran gets nukes they will probably destroy Israel which inturn wil send us into war with them, and will probably make them find a way to get a nuke to the US probably via therrorists.

iran + nukes = mass death and destruction

[sadaist]

Originally posted by Redballjets88
if iran gets nukes they will probably destroy Israel ...

I totally agree. I think if they ever completed a nuke, within 5 minutes it would be painted as a giant driedel and on it's merry way to Tel Aviv.

[sadaist]

Tel Aviv now

[sadaist]

.

[sadaist]

Anyone know if mushrooms are kosher?

[Terry]

Originally posted by sadaist
In our minds. Remember that these are people who go straight to heaven dying in battle. We wouldn't strap explosives to a womans stomach either, but they do all the time. They have a totally different mindset. Iran having a nuke scares the hell out of me. Not as in it being lobbed over here. But having it hit anywhere. I don't want to see it happen. Are they as close as our govt says? I doubt it. Would they like to have nukes? Sure. Other countries don't fuck with you if you've got the nasty.

I dunno - I think Iran has much more to gain with the leverage of just having a nuke and the THREAT that they might use it - because if they actually DID use a nuke on someone, they're all done - and I seriously doubt the majority of Iranians are as willing to sacrifice their lives as the 9/11 hijackers.

As intense as many in the Middle East are about their religion, the majority of them want to live.

Even just air strikes on Iran, without the troops on the ground, isn't very comforting.

[sadaist]

Originally posted by Terry
I seriously doubt the majority of Iranians are as willing to sacrifice their lives as the 9/11 hijackers.

I agree with everything you said. But the major population will not decide whether or not to push the little red button. One guy makes this decision. And that one guy seems a bit off to me.

[Seshmeister]

Originally posted by sadaist
I totally agree. I think if they ever completed a nuke, within 5 minutes it would be painted as a giant driedel and on it's merry way to Tel Aviv.

That's fucking nuts.

Israel has a nuclear deterrant. You know remember that thing that stopped a war with Russia for 40 years.

[Terry]

Originally posted by sadaist
I agree with everything you said. But the major population will not decide whether or not to push the little red button. One guy makes this decision. And that one guy seems a bit off to me.

I see your point - I'm just not seeing much of an upside to attacking them - would be better off to just get some snipers in there and put a bullet in his head - would send the right message and set just the right tone for the rest of the ruling elite in Iran.

We wouldn't even have to publicly say we did it; everyone would know anyway...

In late 2002/early 2003, before we went into Iraq, there were a slew of articles on Iran in several noted periodicals - and just reading that stuff worried me far more than thinking about ANY of the worst possible outcomes in Iraq.

That one guy seems a bit off to me too, but I can't be certain that he's not bluffing - just somehow throwing wanting to destroy Israel out there because he's aware that as soon as you mention that nation it gets the US in a tizzy - like he's throwing it out there to cloud and emotionalize the issue...

Fucked up.

Bottom line: Iraq is a mess that could have been avoided, but was never anything that gave me pause.

Iran just plain spooks me.

[Seshmeister]

Iran is just a product of a total fuckup by Bush.

They were coming along quite well slowly becoming more and more civilised, democratic and secular and a hundred times better than Saudi. The majority of Iranians don't even do all the dumb Islam prayer shit.

Then fuckwit Bush sticks them in his 'Axis of Evil' and not suprisingly you get a backlash which leads to them electing a fuckwit. Obviously they look at the 'Axis' and see that North Korea is untouchable because they have nukes so want to get some themselves. Wouldn't you?

I think it's all posturing though.

Because so much of the 100s of billions the US borrows from China to then piss away on 'defence' is wasted in ludicrous rip off contracts with the corporations that in turn fund the politicians then the US is incapable of a conventional war with Iraq.

You end up with a situation where they are spending more of your tax than the rest of the world combined on 'defence' whilst the troops don't even have decent body armour or vehicles to stop them getting killed by primative bombs in Iraq.

[LoungeMachine]

Originally posted by Redballjets88
im pretty sure we would rape them, their technology cant even compare to our, and im pretty sure we would easily find a way to immobilize there "coast guard", in general we can pretty much rape any army on earth, the only difference between them all is the amount of time it would take, i.e. china would take forever

Jesus fucking Christ.........

Public schools in this country are failing us



Seriously, Skippy. At least make an attempt to know what the hell you're talking about. And posting above a third grade level wouldn't hurt either.

K?