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The binnie breakdown: Shane Mosley - Saul Alvarez
It breaks my heart to bet against Shane - one of the great fighters of our era and, in his prime, capable of giving anyone at 135-147 a hard night's work (well, except Mayweather :D). But this is a fight in which an ageing star has been picked in order to allow a rising gun to make a name for himself and enter the big league $$$. Saul Alvarez hits hard, has good balance, picks his punches well and shows the ability to stalk his man down. I'm yet to be sold on the idea that he's the second coming, but his youth and relentlessness makes for bad news for 40 year old Mosley. Coming off losses to the pound for pound kings - Pacman and Money May - and a stinker against Sergio Mora (a tall, rangey fighter of the sort Shane has never looked good against) you'd have to question whether Shane is confident enough to meet the challenge posed by Alvarez. He's certainly the best fighter Alvarez has faced, and an upset is not out of the question - let us not forget that Shane was getting his ass handed to him by Ricardo Mayorga for 12 rounds until he sensationally KO'd him in the last 5 seconds. But against Manny, Shane looked like he'd lost the hunger, the drive. True, his refusal to stand toe to toe frustrated Manny, who won on workrate after the 4th round, but you sense that although he had Pacman off balance and frsutrated, Shane just doesn't have the timing any more to land the blows which were GLARINGLY OBVIOUS.
There's a narrative around that Mosely has been in decline for years, and that the decking of Margaritto was a one-off in a long time slippage. I think that's BS. Shane has always had ups and downs, and there's a case to be made that he won against Cotto (it was very close), for example. Personally, I think the Mayweather fight/humiliation shattered his confidence, and we've seen evidence of decline since. He'll have his moments early on tonight, and I doubt Alvarez can stop him, but I expect Shane to lose a fairly wide UD.
Breaks my heart - hope he retires afterwards.
It breaks my heart to bet against Shane - one of the great fighters of our era and, in his prime, capable of giving anyone at 135-147 a hard night's work (well, except Mayweather :D). But this is a fight in which an ageing star has been picked in order to allow a rising gun to make a name for himself and enter the big league $$$. Saul Alvarez hits hard, has good balance, picks his punches well and shows the ability to stalk his man down. I'm yet to be sold on the idea that he's the second coming, but his youth and relentlessness makes for bad news for 40 year old Mosley. Coming off losses to the pound for pound kings - Pacman and Money May - and a stinker against Sergio Mora (a tall, rangey fighter of the sort Shane has never looked good against) you'd have to question whether Shane is confident enough to meet the challenge posed by Alvarez. He's certainly the best fighter Alvarez has faced, and an upset is not out of the question - let us not forget that Shane was getting his ass handed to him by Ricardo Mayorga for 12 rounds until he sensationally KO'd him in the last 5 seconds. But against Manny, Shane looked like he'd lost the hunger, the drive. True, his refusal to stand toe to toe frustrated Manny, who won on workrate after the 4th round, but you sense that although he had Pacman off balance and frsutrated, Shane just doesn't have the timing any more to land the blows which were GLARINGLY OBVIOUS.
There's a narrative around that Mosely has been in decline for years, and that the decking of Margaritto was a one-off in a long time slippage. I think that's BS. Shane has always had ups and downs, and there's a case to be made that he won against Cotto (it was very close), for example. Personally, I think the Mayweather fight/humiliation shattered his confidence, and we've seen evidence of decline since. He'll have his moments early on tonight, and I doubt Alvarez can stop him, but I expect Shane to lose a fairly wide UD.
Breaks my heart - hope he retires afterwards.
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